Momentous events in South Waziristan.

What was behind the decision of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen of South Waziristan to issue an ultimatum to 40,000 displaced Mahsud tribespeople to leave Wana by 5th December?
The decision - later extended to 15 December - was taken at a jirga held in Rustam Bazaar in Wana, attended by elders from all nine subtribes of the Ahmadzai Wazirs. Overseeing the jirga was Maulvi Nazir, the pro-government militia commander who, only days before, had been injured in a targeted suicide attack in the same town that killed eight of his companions.

As far as the jirga was concerned, the attackers of Maulvi Nazir were from the Mahsud tribe and they were therefore entitled to tell them to leave. There is a long history of bitterness and rivalry between the two tribes, and this recent incident has been used by political officials to encourage the Ahmadzai Wazirs to act against the Mahsuds.
The Mahsuds, in turn, form the backbone of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Pakistani Army action aimed at the TTP in South Waziristan is the reason there are so many Mahsuds living temporarily in Wana. Many of their homes have been destroyed or are in areas that are too dangerous for occupation.
Some sources say that the suicide attacker tasked with killing Maulvi Nazir was despatched by Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP. The attack was an attempted revenge for the killing of Wali Muhammad on July this year. Wali Muhammad was a close associate of Hakimullah and had only returned to South Waziristan recently, having been expelled by Maulvi Nazir in the past. (more on the background to this feud can be found here).
In the past the Ahmedzai Wazirs have usually attempted to settle their differences with the Mahsuds, not least because they have always needed their agreement to get access to DI Khan and other border areas. The Mahsuds control access to important strategic roads - such as that running from Tank-Jandola-Wana - and have been able to exert a stranglehold on the Wazirs in the past.
However, that era may now have come to an end with the opening of a new road on 18 June this year. Built by the Pakistani Army with American money, the 105-km Kaur-Gomal-Tanai-Wana road means that the Wazirs no longer need permission from the Mahsuds to connect with the rest of the country (more on this here).
Tribal politics in FATA are complex and this may not be the end of the matter. Already, Pakistani officials are talking about putting pressure on the Utmankhel Wazirs in North Waziristan to expel Mahsud tribesmen from Miramshah.
All of these events may be the reason that rumours are growing of a split within the leadership of the TTP. Hakimullah's policy of war against the Pakistani state appears now to come with a price tag that is too high for many of his fellow tribesmen to bear. No wonder that Waliur Rahman, touted as someone who can cut a deal with the military and also turn TTP guns towards Afghanistan, is being spoken about as a future leader of the organisation.

End of Hakimullah's bloodthirsty reign?

Waliur Rahman, TTP leader in waiting?

Reuters is reporting an imminent change of leadership in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, saying its bloodthirsty - and by some accounts, heroin-addicted - leader Hakimullah Mahsud will soon be replaced by his rival and long-time adversary Waliur Rahman. This blog reported the threat to Mahsud's leadership three weeks ago - see Latest FATA Security Report below, on 13 November.
Reuters adds that the change will signal a new emphasis on actions in Afghanistan, rather than against the Pakistani state. It has been clear for some time that the TTP's strategy of killing Pakistani soldiers and police and targeting civilians has been winning it no friends. It was a strategy heavily influenced by al-Qaeda ideologues, who also provided funding to the organisation. Presumably these sources have now dried up, or perhaps Wali has done a deal with the ISI?
Update: Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal argues strongly that reports of a split between Rahman and Mahsud are much exaggerated. "Dare I say that Pakistani officials are using Reuters and other news agencies as part of a not-so-sophisticated information operation designed to split the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan's top leadership? It is high time that news organizations see through this patently obvious nonsense," he says. He may be right, but there are other sources on the fading star of Hakimullah. One to watch.

Latest FATA security report

The Third Quarter Security report from the FATA Research Centre shows that 878 people died in this region of Pakistan from July to September, with another 391 injured.
Most of those killed - 342 - died in 48 clashes between the security forces and militants - to which should be added another 209 militants killed in clashes with the Army in Bajaur Agency, whilst another 71 people died in bomb blasts. US drone attacks killed 113 people, whilst landmines and IEDs killed another 27 people.
Overall, violent incidents increased in FATA during Q3. A breakdown of the casualties suggests that of the total of 1,269 people killed or injured, 625 were militants, 479 were civilians, 126 were security personnel and 39 were pro-government militia. Total casualties were up from 1010 in Q2, with the majority of incidents and casualties taking place in Khyber, Orakzai, Bajaur and North Waziristan Agencies.
The report points out some interesting developments in relation to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In Khyber, for example, the murder of prominent militant Tariq Afridi has led to increased tensions with the TTP: "After the killing of Tariq Afridi, there is confusion among different ranks of TTP militants; and leaders have started to feel threatened for their lives. The situation remains unstable and must be closely observed as critical decisions are being made amongst the top tier of militants in the region."
The report notes that the TTP is pressurising the local tribes in North Waziristan to move to Afghanistan if the area becomes the subject of a Pakistan Army offensive. However, there is resistance, particularly from the Mahsud tribe that makes up much of the TTP foot soldiers.
The report also notes the rising importance of Wali ur Rahman, ostensibly second in command of the TTP, but now in the ascendancy compared to titular leader Hakimullah Mahsud: "Hakimullah is believed to be on drugs these days, he is considered mentally weak, and is on constant run from military. Hakimullah has also reportedly issued orders for killing Tariq Afridi and as a result has lost his support from high profile Taliban commanders. On the other hand, his counterpart Wali Rehman is considered comparatively cool minded, realist and rational."

Poor translations mar Abbottabad documents

A close examination of the documents seized in Abbottabad by US Special Forces last May and released by the Combatting Terrorism Center last week reveals an inconsistency.
The complete translated documents made available on the CTC website are very poorly translated and contain basic grammatical and spelling errors. However, the commentary provided by CTC quotes from the same documents, but gives much more accurate translations.
Thus the letter (SOCOM-2012-0000007) written by al-Qaeda leaders Atiyatullah and Abu Yahya al-Libi to Hakimullah Mahsud, emir of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan TTP and dated 3 December 2010, refers to the "concept, approach and behaviour of the TTP" in the translation provided, but "the ideology, methods and behaviour" in the commentary.
Again, the translated letter refers to the "clear legal and religious mistakes", while the commentary refers to "clear legal errors and dangerous lapses".
Perhaps more annoying is the sentence that is the crux of the letter. The translation runs as follows: "Considering Hakimullah as the sole Emir for everyone to swear allegiance to, whoever oppose him and isn’t a member of the movement is an adulterer, the none differentiation between the Jihad Emirate and the Great Imam post, and neglecting the daily conditions of the Muslims; all of which according to the Shari’a (Muslim laws) are a misconception of the real situation, and may cause an inter-Mujahidin fighting."
This does not even make sense.
In the commentary it is translated (with useful comments) as follows: "News had reached `Atiyya and al-Libi that Mahsud had declared himself to be “the singular leader to whom everyone must pledge allegiance and declaring anyone who rebels against him (kharij `alyhi) or is not in his Tehrik to be a rebel (baghi).” In classical Islamic political parlance, dissenters (khawarij) and rebels (bughat) who renounce the authority of the legitimate imam are subject to jihad and liable to be killed."
The commentary further adds: "Thus, Mahsud’s announcement amounted to declaring himself to be the great imam with political authority over all Muslims, so `Atiyya and al-Libi found it necessary to point out to him that there is a difference “between the [minor] position of leader of jihad and that of great imam,” a distinction with which Mahsud should familiarize himself."
This makes things much clearer.
The translated document ends with a very weak statement: "We hope that you will take the necessary action to correct your actions and avoid these grave mistakes; otherwise we have to take decisive actions from our end."
In fact, as the commentary makes clear, the threat was much more explicit: "“unless we see from you serious and immediate practical and clear steps towards reforming [your ways] and dissociating yourself from these vile mistakes [that violate Islamic Law], we shall be forced to take public and firm legal steps from our side."
How did the CTC manage to produce two different translations of the same document and then publish the poorest quality one as a resource? Unbelievable!

TTP leader Hakimullah reported dead - again

For at least the third time Pakistani sources are reporting that TTP leader Hakimullah Mahsud has been killed in a drone strike. The sources say he was one of six passengers in a vehicle that was destroyed in a CIA drone attack on 12 January, close to the village of Nawa Adda in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan. Initially it was reported that the car's occupants were from Turkmenistan, but later reports placed Hakimullah amongst the dead.
If the story is true it is likely that the feared TTP leader was given up by other militants in the region. Over recent months the TTP has split into numerous factions over the issue of whether or not to continue attacks on Pakistan's army, police and on civilians. Hakimullah and his increasingly isolated group - under the influence of al-Qaeda - refused to stop such attacks, while many other factions, including that of his rival, Waliur Rahman from South Waziristan, were engaged in negotiations with the Army.
Last week, in a move that is likely to have further isolated Hakimullah and his supporters, his men murdered more than 20 members of the Frontier Constabulary in cold blood. They also exploded a bomb in a market place, killing and injuring large numbers of men, women and children.
Last night the TTP's official spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan denied that the TTP leader was dead, although less confidently than in the past: "There is no truth in reports about his death. However, he is a human being and can die any time. He is a holy warrior and we will wish him martyrdom.We will continue jihad if Hakimullah is alive or dead. There are so many lions in this jungle and one lion will replace another one to continue this noble mission.”

Pak Taliban factions unite under pressure

According to reports coming from Pakistan, a new organisation called the Shura-e-Murakbah, made up of the remnants of what was once the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has been created in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
The factions include those TTP remnants led by Hakimullah Mahsud, the South Waziristan faction of the same organisation led by Waliur Rehman Mahsud, the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group, Mullah Nazir's group and the Haqqani Network.
Its five members, according to Dawn newspaper, are Maulvi Azmatullah (representing the Waliur Rehman faction), Maulvi Noor Saeed (Taliban commander in Barwan representing Hakimullah), Maulvi Saeedullah (Haqqani Network), Maulvi Sadar Hayat (Hafiz Gul Bahadar) and Hafeez Amir Hamza (Mullah Nazir Group).
The Shura-e-Murakbah, besides dedicating itself to fighting the US-led forces in Afghanistan, has also promised to end kidnappings and other criminal activities in tribal areas, stating: “All Mujahideen, local and foreigners, are informed that they should desist from killing and kidnapping for ransom innocent people and cooperate with this committee in curbing crimes. If any Mujahid is found involved in unjustified killings, crimes and other illegal activities he will be answerable to Shura-i-Murakbah and will be punished in accordance with the Shariah law,” a statement issued on Monday by the new organisation says. It is a promise that is unlikely to be honoured for very long if past history is any guide.
It is well-known that Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman loathe each other and that other factions are also deeply divided. This meeting and alleged agreement looks more like a last-ditch effort to prevent serious fighting breaking out amongst the various factions.
According to a report in the Long War Journal by Bill Roggio, the deal was brokered by al-Qaeda leader Abu Yahya al Libi, along with Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Mansour from Eastern Afghanistan. Mullah Muhammad Omar is said to have played an important role in pressuring the factions to come to an agreement - although in the past his pleas have fallen on deaf ears - most notably, when Hakimullah went ahead with the killing of Colonel Imam, despite pleas from Mullah Omar and other jihadi leaders.
Despite press reports to the contrary, the new shura has not agreed to stop attacking the Pakistani armed forces. A spokesman for the shura said it would target "Americans and their allies in Pakistan, as well as Afghanistan."
The timing of the formation of this new organisation is clearly significant and reflects in part the growing dissatisfaction amongst many tribal fighters with Hakimullah Mahsud's leadership of the TTP. He is increasingly isolated and detested for his cruelty and poor leadership.
However, it is also significant that its formation was announced just as the Afghan Taliban have reached a critical juncture in their discussions with the Karzai government. It cannot be a coincidence that the Afghan Taliban announced this week the opening of a representative office in Qatar.
Three points should be drawn from this news: first, that al-Qaeda is still an important player - and, more importantly, financier - of the various jihadi factions in Pakistan. That is why they are at the table; second, support by Mullah Omar for this unification move may have more to do with unfolding events in Afghanistan than with a concern for uniting the notoriously unruly Pashtun tribes in Pakistan; and third, don't put any money on this agreement holding up for any length of time.
One final point: Murakbah is an Islamic term that is usually used within the Sufi community. It is an Arabic word which means "to watch over", "to take care of", or "to keep an eye on". In the Sufi context it implies that with meditation, a person watches over or takes care of his spiritual heart (or soul), and acquires knowledge about it, its surroundings, and its creator. Thus Shura-e-Murakbah would mean something like 'the Oversight Committee'.

Pakistan Taliban crisis deepens

An interesting article in Pakistan's Express Tribune sheds further light on the demise of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The article suggests that the TTP is now in terminal decline, with its leader Hakimullah Mahsud isolated due to threats from drones and from the Pakistan military.
They quote a former associate thus: “He is virtually a lonely man running for his life … he is always on the move and doesn’t meet even his once most-trusted lieutenants”.
As I suggested below in the article on Shamim Mahsud and the TTP in South Waziristan, the reason for Hakimullah's isolation is partly due to the existence of peace talks with the Pakistan government - although I was wrong in thinking that it was the Waliur Rehman faction that was excluded from talks.
In fact, it is Hakimullah who has refused to talk to Pakistan's government - presumably under the influence of al-Qaeda and other die-hard jihadists - while Waliur Rehman from South Waziristan and Maulvi Faqir Mohammad from Bajaur are reported to be in discussions.
The latest claim from Maulvi Faqir Mohammad came 10 days ago, when he said talks were progressing and that they had so far resulted in the release of 145 Taliban prisoners. However, Mullah Dadullah, leader of the TTP in Bajaur, quickly denied the claim, adding that fighting would continue until sharia law was introduced throughout the whole of Pakistan.
The Express Tribune article says that money has dried up for the TTP and this has led to the desertion of former supporters, many of whom only fought for money. The TTP's shura, or ruling council, has shrunk from nearly 40 members to less than 10.
The reason funds are in short supply, the article speculates, is that the Afghan Taliban has stopped paying the TTP because it is now in negotiations with the Afghan government.
Presumably Pakistan will introduce an amnesty for TTP members that agree to call a truce with the government, although the ISI will be happy if they continue to fight across the border in Afghanistan.
However, if talks with the Afghan Taliban leadership are really underway, this may be difficult. The big question is where this will leave the foreign jihadists. In his recent interview (see below), Shamim Mahsud was quite happy to show correspondents the houses in the Ladda area where fighters from Turkmenistan were living and training. How will they and the other foreigners fit into the picture?

Confusing reports on Pakistan Taliban

TTP fighters train in South Waziristan

It's a little depressing when you cannot rely on major news agencies to get even basic details right. Both AP and Reuters are carrying reports about a journey made by their correspondents to meet leaders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Laddah region of South Waziristan.
According to the Reuters account, the group of three senior tribal journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, the "deputy commander" of the TTP at his secret base in the mountains close to the border with Afghanistan.
According to an updated report by Ishtiaq Mahsud of AP, the reporters had been invited to meet with Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP, but he had cancelled, with his aides saying he had had to meet a delegation of Afghan Taliban elders who had arrived from across the border. This report again refers to and quotes from Shamim Mahsud, now calling him the "operational commander" of the TTP.
But a third report, from Sailab Mehsud in the Dawn newspaper, differs yet again. This  says that the journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, who Sailab describes (correctly) as "the key operational commander and chief of Laddah sub-division chapter of TTP". However, he adds that "The journalists were invited to meet commander Waliur Rehman, Emir of South Waziristan Taliban, but he was busy in meetings with some Taliban delegations from Afghanistan and other areas of Pakistan. Then they had to meet Shamim Mehsud."
Confused? You should be. There is a big difference between meeting Hakimullah in South Waziristan and meeting Waliur Rahman.
It may help to know that Shamim Mahsud and Waliur Rahman, his emir, are not exactly close to Hakimullah Mahsud and the rest of the leadership of the TTP. For a time there was a blood feud between Shamim and Qari Hussein, Hakimullah's deputy, over who had the right to train suicide bombers. You can read more about that in an interesting article published by the FATA Research Centre. The fact that Shamim seems to have facilitated this unusual trip for journalists is significant, simply for this fact alone. It suggests that Shamim is attempting to reassert Waliur Rahman's claim to leadership of the TTP, perhaps because the South Waziristan faction of the group has been excluded from peace talks rumoured to have been held recently with the government.
Either way, perhaps our main foreign news agencies, on whom we rely for important information, can try a little harder to get basic information right first time.

Oh, and thanks for all those killings...

Inspire's tribute to Hakimullah

The sixth edition of al-Qaeda's English-language magazine, Inspire contains a full-page tribute to Pakistan Taliban boss Hakimullah Mahsud, thanking the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan "for taking revenge on behalf of Shaykh Usama bin Ladin".
Hakimullah, however, is very unlikely to see this tribute. He has not been heard of for months and is presiding in name only over an organisation that is riven with splits and turning on itself. Fearing a drone attack similar to the one that killed his predecessor, Baitullah Mahsud, he is hidden and silent. 
The "revenge" mentioned in the tribute  presumably refers to the mass-casualty suicide bombs the TTP lets off in public places in Pakistan with monotonous (and bloody) regularity. Some people say that Inspire is slick. Sick would be more accurate.

Pakistan Taliban begins to break up

The leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban, Hakimullah Mahsud, has been isolated for much of the last year and is rapidly losing control of his organisation, according to news reports  from Pakistan.
A report in the Express Tribune, for example, notes that there was a large split from the organisation  recently, when Fazal Saeed Haqqani - in charge of the TTP in the Kurram tribal region - announced that he was leaving the organisation, along with around 1,000 of his fighters. Haqqani said he was opposed to the killing of civilians. The TTP has killed hundreds of civilians in a series of indiscriminate bombings throughout Pakistan in the last two years.
Just days before, Shakirullah Shakir, the main spokesman for the TTP's Fidayeeen-e-Islam suicide squad, was gunned down in in the Qutab Khail area of Miranshah in North Waziristan while riding his motorcycle to Mir Ali. No-one claimed responsibility for the targetted killing, but it is likely that the two events are connected. Shakir was a close aide to Qari Hussein Mahsud, the TTP's main organiser of suicide bombings.
Haqqani said he had decided to form a new organisation called Tehreek-e-Taliban Islami that will concentrate on fighting in Afghanistan: "“I repeatedly told the leadership council of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan that they should stop suicide attacks against mosques, markets and other civilian targets,” Haqqani told the AFP news agency by telephone.
“Islam does not allow killings of innocent civilians in suicide attacks,” he said, likening what TTP does in Pakistan to “what US troops are doing in Afghanistan” and vowing to continue the fight alone against the Americans.
There have also been reports of fighting between TTP factions in Khyber and Orakzai districts in recent weeks.

The Haqqani's shaky peace deal in Kurram Agency

When Sunni and Shia tribesmen in the strategically important Kurram Agency in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas signed a peace agreement in February this year, it was clear that something was afoot. The two groups had been at each other's throats for several years. Shia members of the Turi tribe living in Upper Kurram had been the subject of a murderous campaign by neighbouring Sunni Bangash tribesmen and had been cut off from the rest of Pakistan by ambushes and road blocks that had seen hundreds of Shias taken out of buses and murdered at the side of the road. The main road to Peshawar, for example, had been closed since 2007, despite attempts by the Pakistani army to keep it open. According to some accounts, the Shias have been armed and supported by the Iranian regime, which is also predominantly Shia.
Much of this anti-Shia violence has been directed by Hakimullah Mahsud, now leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, but once its emir in Kurram, Orakzai and Khyber. Mahsud is vehemently anti-Shia, regarding them as 'pagans'. He has encouraged his fighters fleeing the Pakistani offensives in both South Waziristan and also Swat to regroup in Orakzai and Kurram and to take on the Shias.
The peace agreement was brokered by the Haqqanis, the family/tribal group who make up one of the main factions of the Afghan Taliban - whose members come from the Zadran tribe. The so-called Haqqani network is now recognised as the most sophisticated and capable insurgent organisation in Afghanistan, operating out of its main bases in North Waziristan.
Under pressure from the CIA drone campaign in North Waziristan and with the support of elements of the Pakistan military, who provide their finance and weapons, the Haqqanis have been looking to move their operations into Kurram, which provides easy access to Afghanistan. Kurram suits the bill perfectly, as it served as a major staging post for attacks against Soviet forces during the 1980s. Osama bin Laden helped build some of the training camps in the region and it is thought that the remnants of al-Qaeda - as well as other foreign forces in the region such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan - and also Pakistani jihadist groups close to the military such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba will benefit from the peace deal with the Turi tribe.
According to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project , written by Jeffrey Dressler and Reza Jan, the Haqqani's move into Kurram will have negative consequences for security and stability in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. They say it will become more difficult to identify, track and strike these groups once they have relocated.
This may be true, although it can hardly be in Iran's interests to allow the Taliban to come to power in Afghanistan. Nor is it likely that the deeply sectarian Sunnis under the command of Hakimullah Mahsud will be able to restrain themselves from killing Shias for very long, thus provoking yet another round of bloodletting in the region. This is a very shaky peace agreement indeed.

Mystery over closure of Afghan blog

 

President Najibullah hanging in Aryana Square in September 1996

Afghan journalist Fahim Khairy has been writing his blog Suffering City for the past year or so, much of it concentrating on internal political issues in Afghanistan and in particular criticising what he perceives to be the pro-Pashtun sentiments of the Karzai government.
But something has happened in the last week and the blog has been closed down for reasons that are still unclear. It seems that someone found his username and then hacked his password. Having done that, they then closed down the site. What could have prompted such an action? One possibility is that it is connected to a series of articles Khairy has written, based on the remarkable book Hidden Secrets by Razaq Mamoon.
This book, published in Dari in Afghanistan, examines the events that led up to the brutal killing of President Najibullah in Kabul in December 1996. Until now, it has always been believed that Najibullah was dragged from a UN compound and strung up from a lamppost in Kabul by the victorious Taliban forces who had entered the city shortly before.
However, Mamoon's book argues that he was killed by three men, two of whom were former communist comrades of Najibullah, but who had fled the country following a split in the Khalq party in 1991. The third person involved, according to Mamoon, was Colonel Imam, the infamous Pakistani intelligence officer who was murdered in North Waziristan in February. Imam was shot dead on the orders of Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, who watched as this hero of the anti-Soviet jihad was callously shot in the head.
Mamoon's book includes a series of documents from the Taliban's own intelligence service archive that  appear to confirm Mamoon's story of Najibullah's murder. According to these documents, the two other killers were Shanawaz Tanai, who once served as Najibullah's defence minister, and Garzai Khowkhozai. These two men later formed an anti-Najibullah movement in Pakistan and were  supported by the ISI.

Garzai was later arrested by the Taliban and the documents referred to by Mamoon and reproduced by Khairy appear to be handwritten notes from Garzai's interrogation. He says Col. Imam - at that time a serving officer in the Pakistan Army as well as an intelligence officer - was with him when they brought Najibullah to the Presidential Palace from the UN building at around midnight. A Taliban judge queried whether the killing of Najibullah would create a bad image of the Taliban, but Najibullah reassured them that no-one would care. The Taliban judge also asked why the former comrades wanted to kill Dr. Naibullah. Garzai replied that they were taking revenge for their comrades who were killed by Najib after the failed the coup in 1990. Garzai added that he was proud of killing him.
Not long after arriving, Najibullah was brought in the courtyard where he was forced to get into a car. There had already been an argument between Col Imam and Najibullah, although the reason for it is unclear. As he was brought into the courtyard Najib resisted and they started beating him and calling him names. Still he refused to get in the car. They finally shot and killed him and then tied him up and threw him into the back of a pick-up truck before driving away. His dead body was driven to Aryana Square where they hung him from a lamppost.
Following the publication of his book, Mamoon was attacked and badly injured in Kabul in January this year. His assailant threw acid in his face, saying that he had been forced to do it by men with Iranian accents. Mamoon's most recent book, Footprint of Pharoah, is about Iranian interference in Afghanistan.
This may explain the attack on Mamoon, but the identity of whoever it was who hijacked Khairy's site remains a mystery. Based in the United States since 2003, Fahim Khairy is in a wheelchair, following the onset of Guillain Barre Syndrome which has left him paralysed. He is a campaigner for disabled people in Afghanistan and a harsh critic of the Karzai Administration in Afghanistan.
Was it the ISI that closed down the site, concerned about the revelations? Or was it the Iranians, possibly seeking to limit the influence of Mamoon? Or was it connected to the internecine feuding that dominates some parts of Afghan polity?

Hakimullah makes a fatal blunder

It is hard not to be shocked by the video issued today showing Colonel Imam being executed by a masked killer on the orders of Tehreek-e-Taliban leader Hakimullah Mahsud, who is standing just 10 feet away when the shots are fired. The boy who killed him with a pistol was barely even born when Col. Imam played a pivotal role in bringing the Afghan Taliban to power. Based in Quetta as a military trainer, he put many young Afghans through their paces as he taught them guerrilla warfare tactics that he, in turn, had learned in the United States, where he had received special forces training.
It was in Quetta that he had first befriended Mullah Omar and other future leaders of what was to become a local anti-Soviet militia around Kandahar, before developing, with extensive Pakistani help, into the Taliban movement. It was Colonel Imam who spotted the potential for the movement and convinced his superiors to back them with money, equipment and even Pakistani regular soldiers dressed as Afghans. He was with them throughout their advance on Kabul and even as they made their bloody entry into Mazar-e-Sharif.
Senior members of the Afghan Taliban are known to hold Col Imam in high regard and during his long captivity they made numerous attempts to get him released. At first, when he was being held as a captive of a group that called itself the Asian Tigers - in reality, a group of criminals and fanatics from Lashkar-e Jhangvi that went under the name of the Punjabi Taliban - these appeals fell on deaf ears.
But when this group fell out with each other, having already killed one hostage and received a ransom for another, it was Hakimullah Mahsud's Tehreek-e-Taliban that stepped in, killing the leader of the gang of kidnappers and then entering into negotiations with Col Imam's family for his release. It looked as if the Colonel would be freed. For reasons we don't yet know, that proved not to be the case.
On 23 January it was reported that Col Imam had died of a 'heart attack', while being held by the TTP. We now know that story was not true. I have not yet seen or heard a translation of what Hakimullah Mahsud said before he ordered Col Imam's killing and it probably doesn't really matter. The question now is what is likely to be the fallout from this dreadful fratricide?
In short, this is probably the worst mistake that Hakimullah has ever made. He has, at a stroke, made enemies of the Afghan Taliban, the Waziris in South Waziristan - who had already made it clear they were opposed to Col Imam's kidnap and who have pledged to revenge his death - and the Pakistan Army and ISI. He will never be forgiven for killing a man who is regarded as a national hero by many in Pakistan.
When a devout moslem and war hero like Col Imam can be killed on the whim of a bloodthirsty local tyrant like Hakimullah, it is clear that the movement he leads is heading for oblivion.

Pak Taliban confirms murder of Colonel Imam

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has confirmed it killed former ISI officer and leading supporter of the Afghan Taliban, Colonel Imam, according to numerous reports now circulating in Pakistan. They say they will release a video of his killing later today. Reports about murder of Imam - real name Sultan Amir Tarar - first surfaced on 23 January, but could not be confirmed. Some reports at the time suggested he had died of a heart attack while in captivity. He had been kidnapped along with another former ISI officer and British journalist Asad Qureshi in North Waziristan last March while attempting to facilitate the making of a documentary on the CIA's drone missile campaign.
Update:  Dawn says it has a copy of the video, which includes a statement from TTP chief Hakimullah Mahsud. However, it has not yet made the content public. The screen-grab below shows Col Imam seated on the ground, with Hakimullah standing behind him. Soon after this moment Hakimullah tells a young masked gunman to shoot Imam, which he does using a pistol.

US charges Pakistan Taliban leader

The US criminal complaint against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Hakimullah Mahsud, can be found here. The document, unsealed last week, makes interesting reading, although it still does not explain how so many CIA officers were killed and wounded by suicide bomber Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al-Balawi, the Jordanian doctor who penetrated the US military base in Khost on 30 December last year.
Drawn up by FBI special agent Thomas Q Krall on 20 August, it states that "witnesses advised that at approximately 4.30pm local time al-Balawi arrived at the base by car. He exited the rights side of the vehicle and appeared to be wearing traditional Afghan attire. He was also carrying a crutch or cane. Base security approached al-Balawi as he stood next to the vehicle. Al-Balawi was observed reaching under his clothing and then detonating an explosive device that was hidden under his clothing. The blast from the explosion killed al-Balawi and seven US citizens. It also injured six other US citizens."
Other accounts of the incident suggest that al-Balawi was in a room crowded with CIA personnel when he detonated his bomb. He had not been searched and this was why his attack was so devastating. This seems to make more sense than the scenario of him exploding his bomb when approached by security staff, as set out in Krall's affidavit.
Hakimullah is charged with conspiracy to murder US nationals outside the United States and also with conspiring to use a weapon of mass destruction. In US law, a weapon of mass destruction is defined to include any "destructive device", including a bomb, grenade, rocket with more than four ounces of propellant, a mine or a missile having an explosive on incendiary charge of more than a quarter of one ounce. Under this definition, just about everything bar a bullet is a "weapon of mass destruction". In fact the definition is so wide as to be meaningless. Did this definition also apply to Saddam's Iraq, I wonder?

Wazirs aim to expel Mahsuds from S. Waziristan

The death of the respected cleric, Maulana Noor Mohammad (above) and 33 others in a suicide bombing in a mosque in Wana Bazaar in South Waziristan last Monday is likely to have enormous consequences in the tribal territories and risks the outbreak of serious warfare between the Wazir and Mahsud tribes.
Maulana Noor Mohammad was an influential figure amongst the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe who dominate the area around Wana. He had just finished a lecture on the Koran after Zuhr prayers, when a young boy, aged around 15, ran up to him and detonated an explosive vest. The Maulana was buried the next day, when around 10,000 people attended his funeral. All the commercial and business centres and schools in the area closed for three days to mourn his death.
Maulana Noor Mohammad was a highly respected cleric and had been involved in the Afghan jihad against the Soviets. He is also the author of a dozen book on jihad and Islam. In 1978 he had tried to form a Taliban-like adminstration in Wana, but was prevented by the Pakistani government from doing so. He later spent four years in jail. While supporting jihad against the Coalition forces in Afghanistan, he has been strongly opposed to any attacks on the Pakistani state.
He has ten sons from two wives and his eldest son, Taj Mohammad, has been chosen as his successor by local elders and religious leaders. Taj Mohammad is a religious scholar and completed an MA with distinction at Gomal University in Dera Ismail Khan. He will take over the running of the huge madrassa built by his father in Wana where hundreds of boys are given free religious education and board and lodging. Maulana Noor Mohammad also built a madrassa in Wana that provides free religious education for Ahmadzai girls.
Elected as a member of the Pakistan National Assembly in 1997 for South Waziristan, Maulana Noor Mohammad was widely respected by local Taliban commanders, such as Mullah Nazir, Mita Khan and Malang Wazir. Many prominent Taliban had passed through his madrassa. His excellent contacts meant he played an important role as an intermediary during the military operations in Wana in 2004-5.
While no-one has yet claimed responsibility for the atrocity, on Tuesday local mosques broadcast announcements telling all members of the Mahsud tribe living in Wana as displaced persons due to Army operations, and all Tehreek-e-Taliban members to leave the area immediately. The broadcasts said they would be removed forcibly if they did not comply, in the same way as the Uzbeks of the IMU under Tahir Yuldashev were forced to leave Wana in April 2007.
These broadcasts make it clear that the principle suspect for the suicide bombing is the TTP of Hakimullah Mahsud. It was Mahsud who provided sanctuary to the Uzbeks and who now has a close alliance with them. Local people have been quoted as saying that the head of the bomber, which has been on display in Wana Bazaar, shows he was an Uzbek.
According to a recent unpublished report from the influential FATA Research Centre, Uzbeks had previously been involved in a failed suicide attack on Mullah Nazir, the overall commander of the Wana Ahmadzai Wazir Taliban, but the boy was caught by guards. Uzbeks also killed 11 of Nazir's men during Ramadan last year near Salay Roghain in the Mahsud territory as they returned for Eid from fighting the Americans in Afghanistan.
After this event, Mullah Nazir demanded that the TTP hand over the four Uzbeks and four Mahsuds involved in the killings, but this was refused.
Then on 17 August this year a clash took place between Mullah Nazir's commander Hajji Tehsil Khan and TTP commander Hafiz Khan (who was one of those involved in the killings of Wazirs last year). Tehsil Khan killed two of Hafiz Khan's men and lost one of his own. Last year he was one of the commanders who joined an anti-TTP alliance in South Waziristan along with Waziristan Baba and Turkistan Bhittani.
The Ahmadzai Wazir's decision to expel all the Mahsud IDPs on their territory will have significant consequences. There are an estimated 3,000 Mahsud families living in Wana due to the Pakistan Army's Operation Rah-e-Nijad. Many more families are in other parts of the Wazir territory. They cannot got to Tank or Dera Ismail districts because of the devastating floods that have wrecked these areas.
If the Ahmadzai Wazir elders decide the Mahsuds of the TTP were responsible for Maulana Noor Mohammad's death then open hostilities are inevitable and TTP leader will have to fight both the Army and the Wazirs. The Ahmadzai Wazirs would also probably call on their kinsmen amongst the Uthmanzai Wazirs who mostly live in North Waziristan, close to the TTP heartland.

Pak Taliban hypocrites offer to save lives

That most humanitarian of organisations, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), led by the killer Hakimullah Mahsud, has offered $20 million as aid for flood victims in Pakistan if the government turns down offers of American aid.
"The government should not accept American aid and if it happens, we can give $20 million to them as aid for the flood victims,” TTP spokesperson Azam Tariq told news agency AFP by telephone.
“We will ourselves distribute relief under the leadership of our chief Hakimullah Mehsud among the people if the government assures us that none of our members will be arrested,” Tariq said.
Washington has already provided $35 million in aid, including nearly half-a-million halal meals and 12 pre-fabricated bridges. US-piloted helicopters have helped to save the lives of around 1,000 people, plucked out of the rising floodwaters that have devastated the lives of more than 12 million people.
Presumably the TTP fighters will put their suicide vests somewhere cool and dry whilst they fly off in their helicopters to rescue people - excluding Shias, Sufis, Christians, Jews, Sikhs, etc - so they can continue bombing mosques and market places once the floodwaters recede.

Hakimullah lives - Pakistani intel officials

Hakimullah Mahsud and Waliur Rahman

The Guardian and the BBC are both reporting this morning that Hakimullah Mahsud, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leader thought to have been killed by a US missile on 14 January this year, is still alive.
According to Declan Walsh of The Guardian, a senior Pakistani intelligence official confirmed the news and said: "He had some wounds but he is basically OK." The BBC confirms the story but says that his standing within the TTP has been diminished and that other leaders, including Waliur Rahman, are now playing a more prominent role.
The news, if true, will be a blow to the US, who blame him for his role in a suicide bomb attack on a CIA base in Eastern Afghanistan in December last year that killed seven CIA officers. Hakimullah's reported death only two weeks later in a drone missile strike in the Shaktoi area of South Waziristan was seen as an eloquent response. However, even though Hakimullah's death was confirmed by Pakistan's interior minister, Rehman Malik, it was never confirmed by the Americans. Nor did an obituary appear in the jihadi media, as is usual on such occasions.
Update: Today, at the Pentagon in Washington, the following exchange took place between a reporter and Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell:
"Q In light of the reports today that Mehsud, the Pakistani Taliban leader, is actually, in fact, alive, after U.S. and Pakistani intelligence officials had declared him dead after the drone strike, are there any concerns in this building about the quality of intelligence that we're receiving in that part of the world?

MR. MORRELL: I mean, frankly, I've seen those reports. I don't know how much stock people put in them. I think we've always been very careful from -- from this podium in particular about talking about individuals and their fate.

The only thing I would add to that -- I don't know -- I can't tell you definitively one way or another. Part of that is I don't think we ever officially commented on any of these.

But I can also tell you that I certainly have seen no evidence that the person you speak of is -- is operational today or is executing or exerting authority over the Pakistan Taliban as he once did. So I don't know if that reflects him being alive or dead, but he clearly is not running the Pakistani Taliban anymore."

Uncertain future for Pakistan Taliban

The death of Hakimullah Mahsud, confirmed earlier this week, will have a significant impact on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the bloodthirsty gang he led until succumbing to injuries caused by a US drone missile strike in mid-January.
The organisation's future is uncertain and it is likely to become increasingly irrelevant, with its remaining members either joining forces with the al-Qaeda remnants still operating in the harsh borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan, or lapsing into criminality.
Hakimullah and his lieutenants Qari Hussein and Waliur Rahman - both of whose fate is still unknown - presided over a period of bloodletting that is almost without precedent in modern Pakistan history. Little if any of this was achieved by either conventional military attacks or even by guerrilla warfare. Their main weapon was the suicide bomber.
Qari Hussein in particular developed an expertise in training young boys to blow themselves to pieces. Sometimes these attacks were aimed at the Pakistan military, but mostly they happened in crowded public places as a way of striking terror into the heart of Pakistan. The bombers killed far more innocent Pakistani civilians than soldiers.
At the time of its formation three years ago, the TTP, under the leadership of Baitullah Mahsud, had the potential to cause considerable problems for Pakistan. Created with strong support from Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri of al-Qaeda and with tacit support from sections of the Pakistani intelligence community, it capitalised on the growing insurgency in Afghanistan, but tried to extend that struggle into Pakistan itself, particularly after the government's attack on the Lal Masjid mosque in Islamabad.
Surprisingly, the Musharraf regime appeared oblivious to this possibility and willingly conceded territory and political power to the organisation. The Army made tentative moves against militants in South Waziristan, but after hundreds of soldiers were captured, it withdrew its forces and left the TTP to get on with it.
In 2009 the full consequences of this policty of laissez faire became clear, particularly in the Swat Valley, where the Taliban established a state-within-a-state, only a hundred miles or so from the capital. Brutal killings, public beatings, the banning of education for girls, forced abductions of young men to fight or become suicide bombers, followed one after the other.
Finally, in late spring 2009, the Army moved against the militants in the Swat Valley. The TTP fighters, despite their swagger, were by then deeply resented by most Swatis. They had no political programme other than a vague idea of a bastardised sharia law and were unable to win support other than from a minority of landless peasants who had longstanding grievances against their landlords.
More than a million residents of the Valley were forced to leave their homes as the Army moved in to clear out the TTP, many of whose fighters were from South Waziristan and were regarded as 'foreigners' by the locals. Many of the militants were as much motivated by plunder as they were by any religious ideology.
With the death of the founding TTP leader Baitullah Mahsud in a drone strike in early August, the organisation was plunged into crisis. The succession was not clear, with different factions allegedly shooting it out.
Hakimullah came out on top of the pile, mainly because he was seen as an effective and experienced guerrilla leader, having cut his teeth ambushing NATO convoys in the Khyber Pass. It is said that al-Qaeda played a major role in securing his position.
But there were always tensions beneath the surface, not least because many tribal militants from FATA were unhappy with the decision to target the Pakistani state itself. Even the Afghanistan Taliban of Mullah Omar tried to distance itself from the TTP, saying it no longer wanted to be known as the Taliban.
As the TTP campaign against the Pakistani state gathered momentum - aided and abetted by an influx of fanatical Punjabi militants - the Army made its move into South Waziristan last October.
Despite the rumoured 15,000 TTP fighters, the Army encountered little opposition as it advanced into areas where government soldiers had never before been allowed to operate. More than a quarter of a million new refugees were created.
The Army trashed dozens of villages and destroyed the family homes of most of the TTP leaders and still they met little opposition. Long-standing sanctuaries for Uzbek and Chechen sympathisers were destroyed and massive amounts of arms and ammunition seized.
Hakimullah and his henchmen moved further into FATA, accepting the reluctant hospitality of the Haqqani clan in neighbouring North Waziristan. When asked where all his fighters were, Waliur Rahman, from a secret hideout, told AP he had sent them all to fight in Afghanistan. This was a lie. By December many of the less committed TTP fighters could see where things were going and had silently melted away. Even the elders of his own tribe, the Mahsuds, turned against Hakimullah and offered to hand him over if they caught him.
And as the Pakistan military consolidated its positions in South Waziristan, the CIA drone attacks increased in intensity - and in accuracy. So when it became clear that Hakimullah had played a major role in training the Jordanian suicide bomber who killed seven CIA officers in Afghanistan on 30 December, it was only a matter of time before he would run out of luck.
The unprecedented storm of drone attacks that followed the CIA killings - with a dozen strikes in less than three weeks - shattered the TTP leadership and its aura of invincibility. Now no-one is safe. There are no longer any safe havens. This lesson will not have been missed by the remaining TTP militants in the tribal territories of Pakistan.
They will have to decide if it is worth being martyred for the crazed and delusional rantings of idealogues like al-Zawahiri. Most, it can be guaranteed, will prefer returning to their old trades of drug smuggling and car theft.

Hakimullah confirmed dead, successor announced

The new TTP commander Noor Jamal administers a beating

A senior Tehreek-e-Taliban leader has confirmed the death of the organisation's leader, Hakimullah Mahsud, according to Pakistani reports. He said Hakimullah died near Multan as he was being taken to Karachi from South Waziristan for treatment for injuries sustained in a drone attack on Shaktoi, North Waziristan on 14 January. Around 10 other people were killed in the attack.
Some sources are saying his nominated succesor is Maulvi Noor Jamal, who comes from Orakzai region. Noor Jamal originally rose to prominence as leader of the TTP in the Kurram tribal area. When the Pakistani military offensive against the TTP began in South Waziristan in October, he was given additional responsibilities in the adjoining area of Orakzai.
Noor Jamal, who was a close friend of Hakimullah, has a reputation for cruelty. Videos are circulating showing him flogging two men and a teenage boy (see photo above). “He kills humans like one will kill chickens,” one resident who left Kurram last year because he was wanted by Noor Jamal’s men told Dawn newspaper.
Noor Jamal is said to be in his late 30s and was a teacher and prayer leader at a local religious school before he was appointed TTP leader in Kurram by Hakimullah.