Confusing reports on Pakistan Taliban

TTP fighters train in South Waziristan

It's a little depressing when you cannot rely on major news agencies to get even basic details right. Both AP and Reuters are carrying reports about a journey made by their correspondents to meet leaders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Laddah region of South Waziristan.
According to the Reuters account, the group of three senior tribal journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, the "deputy commander" of the TTP at his secret base in the mountains close to the border with Afghanistan.
According to an updated report by Ishtiaq Mahsud of AP, the reporters had been invited to meet with Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP, but he had cancelled, with his aides saying he had had to meet a delegation of Afghan Taliban elders who had arrived from across the border. This report again refers to and quotes from Shamim Mahsud, now calling him the "operational commander" of the TTP.
But a third report, from Sailab Mehsud in the Dawn newspaper, differs yet again. This  says that the journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, who Sailab describes (correctly) as "the key operational commander and chief of Laddah sub-division chapter of TTP". However, he adds that "The journalists were invited to meet commander Waliur Rehman, Emir of South Waziristan Taliban, but he was busy in meetings with some Taliban delegations from Afghanistan and other areas of Pakistan. Then they had to meet Shamim Mehsud."
Confused? You should be. There is a big difference between meeting Hakimullah in South Waziristan and meeting Waliur Rahman.
It may help to know that Shamim Mahsud and Waliur Rahman, his emir, are not exactly close to Hakimullah Mahsud and the rest of the leadership of the TTP. For a time there was a blood feud between Shamim and Qari Hussein, Hakimullah's deputy, over who had the right to train suicide bombers. You can read more about that in an interesting article published by the FATA Research Centre. The fact that Shamim seems to have facilitated this unusual trip for journalists is significant, simply for this fact alone. It suggests that Shamim is attempting to reassert Waliur Rahman's claim to leadership of the TTP, perhaps because the South Waziristan faction of the group has been excluded from peace talks rumoured to have been held recently with the government.
Either way, perhaps our main foreign news agencies, on whom we rely for important information, can try a little harder to get basic information right first time.

Pak suicide bombers avoid military, kill civilians.

A study of the 12 suicide attacks carried out in Pakistan in the period from July to September shows that of the 158 people killed, 123 (84 per cent) were civilians and of the 336 injured, 308 were civilians.
The Islamabad Conflict Monitoring Center notes that four attacks were in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three were in Baluchistan, four in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and one in Sindh. There were no attacks in the Punjab, Azad Kashmir or Gilgit-Baltistan. Seven of the attacks were in public places, while only four were aimed at security forces. Only one attack was aimed at the Pakistan Army and that was foiled by an alert soldier (who nonetheless died).
Looking at the figures for the first nine months of 2011, there were 36 suicide attacks in Pakistan, only four of which were aimed at military installations, including 'soft' targets such as a military bakery and a recruitment centre.
The CMC says that the operational capacity of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been badly damaged: "Initially suicide attacks were meant to target only high value targets, which required high level of planning, but now TTP using its suicide weapon just like a shotgun with almost no strategic planning involved." 

Aftermath of suicide attack on a mosque in Jamrud, 19 August

The report adds that the death of the TTP's Qari Hussein in a drone strike last year was a huge blow to the TTP. Hussein was the main planner for suicide attacks. "TTP's command structured is now ineffective and suicide attacks are no more controlled by its central command." The consequences are that targets are now chosen by local commanders, with predictable results. For example, a suicide attack on a mosque in Jamrud on 19 August that was planned by the Tariq Afridi group of the TTP based in Khyber Agency and which killed more than 50 people has caused huge damage to the organisation, even in areas where there was previously some sympathy.

Pakistan Taliban's claim for Times Square carbomb

(The blank space you are looking at above is due to the fact that YouTube has stupidly decided to censor Qari Hussein's video. I have kept the rest of the article as it was, including his spoken words, which I copied from the video. If anyone finds a copy of the video posted somewhere else, please let me know and I will endeavour to post it here. Presumably the two videos below may be taken offline soon, so make copies if you need them for reference - Editor, Wed 5 May.)

This is the video in which Qari Hussain Mahsud, the Pakistan Taliban leader and trainer of their suicide bombers, takes responsibility for the crude car bomb left in Times Square, New York. Still not clear if this is a genuine or opportunistic claim. Below is a translation of the words spoken by Qari Hussein:

"We, Tehreek-e-Taliban with all the pride and bravery, accept the responsibility for the recent attack on Times Square, New York, USA. We also congratulate the Muslim Ummah with all the pleasure and happiness. This attack is revenge for the great and valuable martyred leaders of Mujahideen, ie Baitullah Mahsud Shaheed (and) the Arab Mujahideen's leaders, especially Abu Umer al-Baghdadi Shaheed's companions in Iraq.
This is also a revenge for the global American interference and terrorism in Muslim countries, especially in Pakistan for Lal Masjid operation, the recent rain of drone attacks in the tribal areas and the abduction, torture and humiliation of our most respected and innocent sister, Dr Aafia Siddiqui. We furiously warn the member countries of NATO, their governments and common public to oppose the evil US policies and sincerely apologize for the massacres in Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal areas. Otherwise we prepared for the worst ever destruction and devastation in their regions, Inshallah."

Also of interest is this video, posted on 2 May, of Hakimullah Mahsud, proving conclusively that he is very much alive and well, even if he is no longer emir of Tehreek-e-Taliban. He says in the video that it was recorded on 2 April. In the video he says that attacks are being planned on America.


And this one, which is Hakimullah's voice, along with graphics and stills, is dated 19th April. In it Hakimullah says that American towns and cities are now on the Pakistan Taliban's target list.
It's hardly surprising that Pakistan's ISI intelligence service last week admitted that Hakimullah was still alive. They must have already seen copies of these videos.

Uncertain future for Pakistan Taliban

The death of Hakimullah Mahsud, confirmed earlier this week, will have a significant impact on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the bloodthirsty gang he led until succumbing to injuries caused by a US drone missile strike in mid-January.
The organisation's future is uncertain and it is likely to become increasingly irrelevant, with its remaining members either joining forces with the al-Qaeda remnants still operating in the harsh borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan, or lapsing into criminality.
Hakimullah and his lieutenants Qari Hussein and Waliur Rahman - both of whose fate is still unknown - presided over a period of bloodletting that is almost without precedent in modern Pakistan history. Little if any of this was achieved by either conventional military attacks or even by guerrilla warfare. Their main weapon was the suicide bomber.
Qari Hussein in particular developed an expertise in training young boys to blow themselves to pieces. Sometimes these attacks were aimed at the Pakistan military, but mostly they happened in crowded public places as a way of striking terror into the heart of Pakistan. The bombers killed far more innocent Pakistani civilians than soldiers.
At the time of its formation three years ago, the TTP, under the leadership of Baitullah Mahsud, had the potential to cause considerable problems for Pakistan. Created with strong support from Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri of al-Qaeda and with tacit support from sections of the Pakistani intelligence community, it capitalised on the growing insurgency in Afghanistan, but tried to extend that struggle into Pakistan itself, particularly after the government's attack on the Lal Masjid mosque in Islamabad.
Surprisingly, the Musharraf regime appeared oblivious to this possibility and willingly conceded territory and political power to the organisation. The Army made tentative moves against militants in South Waziristan, but after hundreds of soldiers were captured, it withdrew its forces and left the TTP to get on with it.
In 2009 the full consequences of this policty of laissez faire became clear, particularly in the Swat Valley, where the Taliban established a state-within-a-state, only a hundred miles or so from the capital. Brutal killings, public beatings, the banning of education for girls, forced abductions of young men to fight or become suicide bombers, followed one after the other.
Finally, in late spring 2009, the Army moved against the militants in the Swat Valley. The TTP fighters, despite their swagger, were by then deeply resented by most Swatis. They had no political programme other than a vague idea of a bastardised sharia law and were unable to win support other than from a minority of landless peasants who had longstanding grievances against their landlords.
More than a million residents of the Valley were forced to leave their homes as the Army moved in to clear out the TTP, many of whose fighters were from South Waziristan and were regarded as 'foreigners' by the locals. Many of the militants were as much motivated by plunder as they were by any religious ideology.
With the death of the founding TTP leader Baitullah Mahsud in a drone strike in early August, the organisation was plunged into crisis. The succession was not clear, with different factions allegedly shooting it out.
Hakimullah came out on top of the pile, mainly because he was seen as an effective and experienced guerrilla leader, having cut his teeth ambushing NATO convoys in the Khyber Pass. It is said that al-Qaeda played a major role in securing his position.
But there were always tensions beneath the surface, not least because many tribal militants from FATA were unhappy with the decision to target the Pakistani state itself. Even the Afghanistan Taliban of Mullah Omar tried to distance itself from the TTP, saying it no longer wanted to be known as the Taliban.
As the TTP campaign against the Pakistani state gathered momentum - aided and abetted by an influx of fanatical Punjabi militants - the Army made its move into South Waziristan last October.
Despite the rumoured 15,000 TTP fighters, the Army encountered little opposition as it advanced into areas where government soldiers had never before been allowed to operate. More than a quarter of a million new refugees were created.
The Army trashed dozens of villages and destroyed the family homes of most of the TTP leaders and still they met little opposition. Long-standing sanctuaries for Uzbek and Chechen sympathisers were destroyed and massive amounts of arms and ammunition seized.
Hakimullah and his henchmen moved further into FATA, accepting the reluctant hospitality of the Haqqani clan in neighbouring North Waziristan. When asked where all his fighters were, Waliur Rahman, from a secret hideout, told AP he had sent them all to fight in Afghanistan. This was a lie. By December many of the less committed TTP fighters could see where things were going and had silently melted away. Even the elders of his own tribe, the Mahsuds, turned against Hakimullah and offered to hand him over if they caught him.
And as the Pakistan military consolidated its positions in South Waziristan, the CIA drone attacks increased in intensity - and in accuracy. So when it became clear that Hakimullah had played a major role in training the Jordanian suicide bomber who killed seven CIA officers in Afghanistan on 30 December, it was only a matter of time before he would run out of luck.
The unprecedented storm of drone attacks that followed the CIA killings - with a dozen strikes in less than three weeks - shattered the TTP leadership and its aura of invincibility. Now no-one is safe. There are no longer any safe havens. This lesson will not have been missed by the remaining TTP militants in the tribal territories of Pakistan.
They will have to decide if it is worth being martyred for the crazed and delusional rantings of idealogues like al-Zawahiri. Most, it can be guaranteed, will prefer returning to their old trades of drug smuggling and car theft.

Where's Wali?

Hakimullah and Waliur Rahman in happier days

With the US now confirming that Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, was killed in a drone strike in mid-January, it remains to be seen what has happened to his two most senior aides (and potential successors), Qari Hussein and Waliur Rahman. Neither man has made a public appearance or statement since the time of the drone attack.
If both have been killed, it will be a major setback for the organisation, although one thing the TTP is not short of is funds. According to NWFP governor, Owais Ghani, the TTP is spending around 3.6 billion rupees (£27 million) on its estimated 15,000 fighters.
The money comes from the opium trade. Much of the opium grown in Afghanistan is transported to the FATA border areas, where TTP fighters ensure it gets to the middlemen who buy, refine and sell the drug, both in Pakistan and internationally.
Perhaps its true that the TTP is spending such large amounts of money on wages for its fighters, although they don't appear to have earned their cash, as little has been seen of the thousands of rumoured TTP fighters hiding in the hills of Waziristan. They have not put up any serious resistance to the Pakistan Army offensive in either South or North Waziristan. And a few weeks ago in an interview with AP Waliur Rahman had to explain the lack of fighters in the area by saying he had sent them all to Afghanistan to fight the Americans. Do they really exist, I wonder?

Mahsud tribe on the verge of surrender?

Several Pakistani newspapers are reporting that the Mahsud tribe held a jirga yesterday at which its elders agreed to hand over Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Hakimullah Mahsud and 378 other wanted men to the government.
The jirga, meeting at the Political Compound in Tank in South Waziristan and consisting of around 300 senior members of the tribe, also agreed to meet all seven conditions put forward by the Pakistani government as a precondition for halting the military offensive into the Mahsud tribal lands. The government had said that yesterday was a deadline for agreement on the seven conditions.
According to The News, "The government conditions included surrender of 378 wanted persons, a ban on display of arms, acceptance of Collective Responsibility Clause of the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) and abstaining from giving shelter to foreign militants. The jirga announced to accept all the conditions and pledged to extend all possible help to the authorities in purging the area of militants."
Several Mahsud elders told the jirga that their tribesmen had no intention of fighting against the Pakistani Army and that they wanted the restoration of peace in South Wazirstan. They said Pakistan was their own country for which their ancestors had given numerous sacrifices. They added that they were patriotic citizens and wanted to see progress in South Wazirstan. They said they hoped that the government would help to rebuild the area and to compensate internally displaced persons (IDPs), who had to leave their homes in the region.
It was also agreed that another jirga should be held on 10 February. Addressing the jirga, South Waziristan Political Agent Syed Shahab Ali Shah said the government would provide all-out support to the tribal people affected by the operation. He lauded the cooperation of the jirga elders. Senator Maulana Salih Shah also attended.
If this story is accurate, it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. Does it mean that Hakimullah, Waliur Rahman, Qari Hussein and the other wanted men will surrender to the jirga? If not, will the jirga take up arms against them? Either way it could be a major disaster for the TTP, which is largely made up of Mahsud tribesmen.
Inevitably, there will be speculation that the wave of ten or more US drone strikes aimed at the TTP leadership since the suicide bombing of the CIA base at FOB Chapman in Khost on 30 December is behind the jirga decision. The strikes have been remarkably successful in killing senior leaders of the TTP - as well as foreign militants - and even injuring Hakimullah himself. The missiles appear to have broken the back of the Mahsud resistance.