Momentous events in South Waziristan.

What was behind the decision of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen of South Waziristan to issue an ultimatum to 40,000 displaced Mahsud tribespeople to leave Wana by 5th December?
The decision - later extended to 15 December - was taken at a jirga held in Rustam Bazaar in Wana, attended by elders from all nine subtribes of the Ahmadzai Wazirs. Overseeing the jirga was Maulvi Nazir, the pro-government militia commander who, only days before, had been injured in a targeted suicide attack in the same town that killed eight of his companions.

As far as the jirga was concerned, the attackers of Maulvi Nazir were from the Mahsud tribe and they were therefore entitled to tell them to leave. There is a long history of bitterness and rivalry between the two tribes, and this recent incident has been used by political officials to encourage the Ahmadzai Wazirs to act against the Mahsuds.
The Mahsuds, in turn, form the backbone of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Pakistani Army action aimed at the TTP in South Waziristan is the reason there are so many Mahsuds living temporarily in Wana. Many of their homes have been destroyed or are in areas that are too dangerous for occupation.
Some sources say that the suicide attacker tasked with killing Maulvi Nazir was despatched by Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP. The attack was an attempted revenge for the killing of Wali Muhammad on July this year. Wali Muhammad was a close associate of Hakimullah and had only returned to South Waziristan recently, having been expelled by Maulvi Nazir in the past. (more on the background to this feud can be found here).
In the past the Ahmedzai Wazirs have usually attempted to settle their differences with the Mahsuds, not least because they have always needed their agreement to get access to DI Khan and other border areas. The Mahsuds control access to important strategic roads - such as that running from Tank-Jandola-Wana - and have been able to exert a stranglehold on the Wazirs in the past.
However, that era may now have come to an end with the opening of a new road on 18 June this year. Built by the Pakistani Army with American money, the 105-km Kaur-Gomal-Tanai-Wana road means that the Wazirs no longer need permission from the Mahsuds to connect with the rest of the country (more on this here).
Tribal politics in FATA are complex and this may not be the end of the matter. Already, Pakistani officials are talking about putting pressure on the Utmankhel Wazirs in North Waziristan to expel Mahsud tribesmen from Miramshah.
All of these events may be the reason that rumours are growing of a split within the leadership of the TTP. Hakimullah's policy of war against the Pakistani state appears now to come with a price tag that is too high for many of his fellow tribesmen to bear. No wonder that Waliur Rahman, touted as someone who can cut a deal with the military and also turn TTP guns towards Afghanistan, is being spoken about as a future leader of the organisation.

Pakistan's bloody TTP factions fight it out

Maulana Ashraf Ali Marwat, the bloodthirsty Tehreek-e-Taliban commander who was responsible for bombing a volleyball match in which more than 100 people died in January 2010 has been shot dead in South Waziristan, according to reports.
Marwat helped to plan the attack in Shah Hasankhel village (his home village!) in which a truck loaded with explosives was detonated at the packed tournament in Northwestern Lakki Marwat district. He was also suspected of planning the murder of renowned scholar and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Muhammad Azeem Khan Begokhel and of Marwat Peace Jirga chief Moulana Mohsin Shah in May 2012.
The Express Tribune reports that 'Commander Ali', as he was known, was buried in a village close to Miranshah. No-one has claimed responsibility for killing him, but he had plenty of enemies. “Not many people participated in the funeral” explained a local TTP commander, suggesting that Marwat may have lost support from the group prior to his murder. In the recent past his main activities were bombing schools and threatening and extorting locals.
Meanwhile, it seems to be rivalry and killing as usual in FATA. Hakimullah Mahsud's TTP fighters have threatened to attack the Wana-based Maulvi Nazir group in South Waziristan, following the murder last week of Wali Mohammad Wazir. Wali Muhammad was the younger brother of Nek Mohammad Wazir, a former commander who was the first person to die in a US drone strike, back in 2004.
Local Wazir tribesmen had forced Wali Mohammad and his mainly foreign (Uzbek) supporters to leave the area in early 2008 after many complaints about their behaviour. Wali Mohammad survived by moving to North Waziristan, where he received protection from the Hakimullah Mahsud faction of the TTP. Following negotiations with Maulvi Nazir a few months ago, Wali Mohammad was allowed to return to South Waziristan. However, it seems he brought Uzbek and Tajik militants back with him and it was this that prompted Maulvi Nazir to have him killed.
Meanwhile in Orakzai agency on Sunday a suicide bomber detonated a truck bomb in the compound of TTP Commander Mullah Nabi, killing around a dozen people and wounding 20. Prime suspect is Mullah Toofan. His target, Mullah Nabi, survived.  Who needs enemies when you have comrades in the TTP?