Latest FATA security report

The Third Quarter Security report from the FATA Research Centre shows that 878 people died in this region of Pakistan from July to September, with another 391 injured.
Most of those killed - 342 - died in 48 clashes between the security forces and militants - to which should be added another 209 militants killed in clashes with the Army in Bajaur Agency, whilst another 71 people died in bomb blasts. US drone attacks killed 113 people, whilst landmines and IEDs killed another 27 people.
Overall, violent incidents increased in FATA during Q3. A breakdown of the casualties suggests that of the total of 1,269 people killed or injured, 625 were militants, 479 were civilians, 126 were security personnel and 39 were pro-government militia. Total casualties were up from 1010 in Q2, with the majority of incidents and casualties taking place in Khyber, Orakzai, Bajaur and North Waziristan Agencies.
The report points out some interesting developments in relation to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In Khyber, for example, the murder of prominent militant Tariq Afridi has led to increased tensions with the TTP: "After the killing of Tariq Afridi, there is confusion among different ranks of TTP militants; and leaders have started to feel threatened for their lives. The situation remains unstable and must be closely observed as critical decisions are being made amongst the top tier of militants in the region."
The report notes that the TTP is pressurising the local tribes in North Waziristan to move to Afghanistan if the area becomes the subject of a Pakistan Army offensive. However, there is resistance, particularly from the Mahsud tribe that makes up much of the TTP foot soldiers.
The report also notes the rising importance of Wali ur Rahman, ostensibly second in command of the TTP, but now in the ascendancy compared to titular leader Hakimullah Mahsud: "Hakimullah is believed to be on drugs these days, he is considered mentally weak, and is on constant run from military. Hakimullah has also reportedly issued orders for killing Tariq Afridi and as a result has lost his support from high profile Taliban commanders. On the other hand, his counterpart Wali Rehman is considered comparatively cool minded, realist and rational."

Ongoing military campaign in Pakistan's tribal areas

Reza Jan of the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute has produced a useful summary of continuing Pakistani Army actions in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
He reports that the Pakistani government and the military leadership have belatedly come to realise that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency is a mortal threat to the state. In response, in recent months the military has built upon the momentum it achieved in the Swat and South Waziristan operations and the growing unpopularity of the TTP to expand its area of operations into other parts of FATA, including, Bajaur, Orakzai and Kurram.
The Army's operations aim to target and disrupt the TTP leadership and to stimulate local uprisings against the organisation as a way of bringing the insurgency to an end.
Author Reza Jan notes that a key factor in determining long-term success against the TTP will be whether the Pakistani military sustains the post-conflict phase of operations in a focused manner and the success it has in empowering local lashkars to resist renewed attempts at encroachment by the TTP.
The report contains some useful background information, pointing out, for example, that Orakzai contains the world's largest illegal arms bazaar at Darra Adam Khel, which is also the base for the bloodthirsty Commander Tariq Group of the TTP, led by Tariq Afridi.
Another interesting insight is the account of an uprising by Shia Stori Khel tribesmen against the TTP. Tensions between incoming fighters from South Waziristan - including many foreigners - and locals were said to have been behind numerous incidents in the region.
This report is very useful, if only because it shows that the Pakistani Army's South Waziristan operation was not simply cosmetic. The Army, it would seem, is doing what it can to harass and destroy the militants, without doing so much that it creates a general uprising against the state.