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Pakistan witnessed an 11 per cent decrease in the number of terrorism and violence incidents in 2010, according to the fifth annual report from the Pak Institute for Peace Studies . Their annual Pakistan Security Report - the only major source on internal security in Pakistan - puts the decline down to an effective Pakistan Army military campaign in the tribal areas, increased surveillance by the law enforcement agencies and the killing of key terrorists by the US drone strikes in FATA.
The trends vary from province to province. Violent incidents increased in Sindh and Punjab compared to the previous year, but fell dramatically in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's settled areas. The PIPS report criticises the lack of long-term strategy, saying "the government continues to rely almost exclusively on military solutions to the
militancy in FATA."
The report shows that a total of 2,113 militant, insurgent and sectarian-related incidents were reported in 2010, killing 2,913 people and injuring another 5,824. To this total can be added 2,007 people killed in clashes between security forces and militants, 2,631 killed in operational attacks by security forces, 961 killed in drone attacks, 65 killed in border clashes, 660 killed in ethno-political violence and 766 killed in inter-tribal clashes. The total number killed is therefore 10,003 with another 10,283 injured. This compares to 12,623 fatalities in 2009 and another 12,815 injured.
Copies of the full report can be obtained via the PIPS website.
Showing posts with label Pak Institute for Peace Studies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pak Institute for Peace Studies. Show all posts
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Monday, 17 January 2011
Pakistan remains a land ravaged by violence
The worst affected areas were Baluchistan (737 attacks) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (720 attacks), followed by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (459 attacks).
Overall, violent incidents decreased in 2010 for the first time since 2007. Fatalities also fell from 12,623 in 2009 to 10,003 in 2010, while injuries fell by a similar proportion. Suicide attacks fell from 87 in 2009 to 68 in 2010, almost half of which occurred in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Deaths resulting from US drone attacks rose by 165 per cent in 2010 to 961, most of which occurred in North Waziristan.
The number of terrorist attacks throughout Pakistan decreased by 21 per cent compared to 2009, although attacks by militants in FATA increased by 28 per cent and fatalities from such attacks in the tribal areas increased by 40 per cent and injuries by 37 per cent. While law enforcement personnel were the target of 105 attacks in 2009, this figure rose to 144 attacks in 2010. Attacks on political leaders rose from 7 in 2009 to 34 in 2010.
The number of civilians killed in 2010 was 3,570 in 2010, compared to 3,476 in 209, but security personnel deaths fell by half from 2,515 in 2009 to 1,211 in 2010.
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
A deadly year of terrorism for Pakistan
Latest figures from the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) confirm that 2009 was a dreadful year for Pakistan. Their usually reliable figures show that a total of 2,586 terrorist, insurgent and sectarian related incidents of terrorism were reported across the country, killing 3,021 people and injuring 7,334.
This makes Pakistan the most dangerous country in the world for terrorism, with more people being killed here than in Afghanistan, Iraq or any other place.
The highest number of attacks was reported from the North West Frontier Province (1,137), followed by Balochistan (792) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) (559). As many as 46 attacks took place in Punjab, 30 in Sindh, 12 in Islamabad and five each in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir.
The 87 suicide attacks in 2009 were 32 percent higher than the previous year. These attacks claimed the lives of 1,299 persons and injured 3,633, says PIPS.
When you add in casualties in terrorist attacks, operational attacks by the security forces and their clashes with the militants, intertribal clashes and the cross-border attacks of the US and NATO forces in FATA are counted, overall casualties total 12,632 people dead and 12,815 injured. These figures are much higher than those published two weeks ago by Dawn newspaper (see my report of 31 Dec below).
PIPS says that government forces were able to inflict heavy damage on the terrorists’ networks and infrastructure in FATA and adjacent areas. However, some caution should be applied when dealing with official figures on terrorists killed during operations. Many journalists have reported that there is often no sign of dead bodies following some military actions.
That said, the military says 596 operational attacks were launched in 2009, compared to 313 operational attacks in the previous year. During the year, 12,866 militants were arrested, including 75 al-Qaeda and 9,739 TTP supporters and militants belonging to other banned groups and Baloch insurgents.
Compare these figures to Afghanistan. According to a report from the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan published yesterday, the number of Afghan civilians killed in violence in 2009 was 2,412, compared with 2,118 in 2008. This figure was higher than in any year since the Taliban were ousted in 2001 and was a rise of 14 per cent on the previous year, but still substantially below the casualty figures for neighbouring Pakistan.
Seventy per cent of last year's civilian deaths - representing about 1,681 people - had been caused by insurgent attacks, while pro-government forces including NATO and US troops, had been responsible for a quarter of civilian deaths (596 people).
According to the report: "Suicide and other attacks involving IEDs continued to claim the most civilian lives in 2009 with an overall toll of 1,054 killed. 225 civilians were killed as a result of targeted assassinations and executions. Together, these tactics accounted for over 78 per cent of the civilian deaths attributed to 'anti-goverment element' actions."
In an email statement the Taliban challenged the credibility of UNAMA’s report and accused the organization of disseminating incorrect and biased information. “Partial judgment, and blind support of one side and condemnation of the other, only irreparably harms your credibility,” said the statement addressed to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
UNAMA rejected the Taliban accusations and said it has a mandate to impartially report civilian casualties of war based on reliable facts and the testimonies of victims.
The UNAMA report noted that deaths attributed to allied forces dropped by nearly 30 per cent in 2009.
The UNAMA report also noted that there were 520 international Coalition troop deaths throughout the year, up from 295 for 2008.
This makes Pakistan the most dangerous country in the world for terrorism, with more people being killed here than in Afghanistan, Iraq or any other place.
The highest number of attacks was reported from the North West Frontier Province (1,137), followed by Balochistan (792) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) (559). As many as 46 attacks took place in Punjab, 30 in Sindh, 12 in Islamabad and five each in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir.
The 87 suicide attacks in 2009 were 32 percent higher than the previous year. These attacks claimed the lives of 1,299 persons and injured 3,633, says PIPS.
When you add in casualties in terrorist attacks, operational attacks by the security forces and their clashes with the militants, intertribal clashes and the cross-border attacks of the US and NATO forces in FATA are counted, overall casualties total 12,632 people dead and 12,815 injured. These figures are much higher than those published two weeks ago by Dawn newspaper (see my report of 31 Dec below).
PIPS says that government forces were able to inflict heavy damage on the terrorists’ networks and infrastructure in FATA and adjacent areas. However, some caution should be applied when dealing with official figures on terrorists killed during operations. Many journalists have reported that there is often no sign of dead bodies following some military actions.
That said, the military says 596 operational attacks were launched in 2009, compared to 313 operational attacks in the previous year. During the year, 12,866 militants were arrested, including 75 al-Qaeda and 9,739 TTP supporters and militants belonging to other banned groups and Baloch insurgents.
Compare these figures to Afghanistan. According to a report from the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan published yesterday, the number of Afghan civilians killed in violence in 2009 was 2,412, compared with 2,118 in 2008. This figure was higher than in any year since the Taliban were ousted in 2001 and was a rise of 14 per cent on the previous year, but still substantially below the casualty figures for neighbouring Pakistan.
Seventy per cent of last year's civilian deaths - representing about 1,681 people - had been caused by insurgent attacks, while pro-government forces including NATO and US troops, had been responsible for a quarter of civilian deaths (596 people).
According to the report: "Suicide and other attacks involving IEDs continued to claim the most civilian lives in 2009 with an overall toll of 1,054 killed. 225 civilians were killed as a result of targeted assassinations and executions. Together, these tactics accounted for over 78 per cent of the civilian deaths attributed to 'anti-goverment element' actions."
In an email statement the Taliban challenged the credibility of UNAMA’s report and accused the organization of disseminating incorrect and biased information. “Partial judgment, and blind support of one side and condemnation of the other, only irreparably harms your credibility,” said the statement addressed to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
UNAMA rejected the Taliban accusations and said it has a mandate to impartially report civilian casualties of war based on reliable facts and the testimonies of victims.
The UNAMA report noted that deaths attributed to allied forces dropped by nearly 30 per cent in 2009.
The UNAMA report also noted that there were 520 international Coalition troop deaths throughout the year, up from 295 for 2008.
Sunday, 10 May 2009
Pakistan civilian casualties now higher than Afghanistan
As the Pakistani Army offensive gets underway in the Swat Valley in the north of the country it is probably worth putting a few facts into context. First, there can be little doubt that Pakistan is presently in the grip of an insurrection. This is hardly an exaggeration. Just compare the figures for civilian deaths connected to militant or army activity with those in neighbouring Afghanistan.
According to the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2,118 civilians were killed as aresult of armed conflict in Afghanistan in 2008. This represents a 40 per cent increase on UNAMA’s figure for 2007. Even according to the highest estimate, from Afghanistan Rights Monitor (ARM), the total for 2008 was 3,917.
Yet if we look at the Pakistan figures provided by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) (and aggregated by me) we can see that the total number of civilian deaths in the six months from October 2008 – March 2009 was 1,765. If military and insurgent deaths are added, the total is 4,266. If the civilian death figures for Pakistan were extrapolated from six months to one year, the projected total would amount to 3,530 – much higher than the UN figure for Afghanistan and almost as high as the highest estimate.
The PIPS figures show that on average more than 200 terrorist incidents are taking place every month. In the six-month period mentioned, 2,152 militants were killed by the Army and paramilitary forces.
The most significant figure provided by PIPS is that showing the number of Pakistan Army casualties. In the six months in question, the total is just 39. Both the Frontier Corps and the police have had more deaths in a single month. Clearly the Army has, until now, had a policy of only limited engagement with the Taliban and its allies, while the other non-military forces have taken the brunt of the Taliban offensive.
Second, the Taliban in Pakistan is not the same as the Taliban in Afghanistan. The former is a coalition of various groups which, although they are united in wanting to establish an Islamic caliphate, have very clear political and religious differences. The chances of long-term stability of leadership are slim. There are few figures who are universally acknowledged as being pre-eminent. Several of the factions have been in open conflict with each other in the recent past.
It is worth emphasising also that the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) in Pakistan is not even solely a Pashtun organisation. As far back as the anti-Soviet jihad, it was true that many of the Taliban leaders based in Pakistan were in fact Punjabis – many of them seconded from the Pakistan Army. As the TTP has grown in influence over the last two years, it has also attracted attention from organisations such as Kashmiri-based Lashkar-e-Toiba which are known to have close connections to ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service.
Evidence of the growing influence of Punjabis on the Taliban comes from recent reports showing that the TTP is now operating within the Punjab itself. Eight police officers were killed on 6 February in an attack in Mianwali, a poor wheat-farming district on the border between Punjab and the North West Frontier Province.
Traders in the Punjabi city of Multan recently received leaflets warning that unveiled or unaccompanied women visiting the market would get acid thrown in their faces. The local medical school received threats telling it to cease educating women. The men involved In the March attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team while visiting Lahore (which is the capital of the Punjab) and a military police training academy are thought to be local, but trained in the tribal areas.
In April the TTP issued its first video in Punjabi. The video shows men preparing to attack NATO supply terminals on the outskirts of Peshawar
Speaking in Karachi last week, the well-known Pakistan writer Ahmed Rashid summed up the situation. He said "I no longer say that there's a creeping Talibanization in Pakistan; it's a galloping Talibanization."
He went on to say:
"The leadership of the Taliban is now in Pakistan, and they have stated their intention of overthrowing the government here. The Taliban are linking up with groups in Pakistan, and the Pakistani Taliban movement is turning into a multiethnic movement. Groups cultivated [by the Pakistani Army] to fight in Kashmir have joined up with the Pakistani Taliban, and include Punjabis, with organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Harkatul Mujahideen. Now, some 40 groups in Pakistan are loosely affiliated.... For that reason, Pakistan faces a more dangerous situation than Afghanistan, where Tajik and Uzbek fighters were not permitted to join the Afghan Taliban movement."
The real issue now for Pakistan is whether or not the Army can be persuaded to change its policy in relation to the jihadi groups. It has fostered and protected these organisations in order to pursue its policy of regaining control of Kashmir from India. Without a deal on Kashmir, the logic runs, there will be no deal to end the conflict in Afghanistan.
Now this policy has been revealed to be double-edged. As the TTP and its allies have grown in strength, they are intent on taking over control of the country. Pakistanis are slowly waking up to this fact and there is widespread support for the military action now taking place – not least from the millions of Pashtuns who have been forced to leave the tribal territories by the TTP and al-Qaeda and who live in poor conditions in Karachi and the Gulf.
According to the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2,118 civilians were killed as aresult of armed conflict in Afghanistan in 2008. This represents a 40 per cent increase on UNAMA’s figure for 2007. Even according to the highest estimate, from Afghanistan Rights Monitor (ARM), the total for 2008 was 3,917.
Yet if we look at the Pakistan figures provided by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) (and aggregated by me) we can see that the total number of civilian deaths in the six months from October 2008 – March 2009 was 1,765. If military and insurgent deaths are added, the total is 4,266. If the civilian death figures for Pakistan were extrapolated from six months to one year, the projected total would amount to 3,530 – much higher than the UN figure for Afghanistan and almost as high as the highest estimate.
The PIPS figures show that on average more than 200 terrorist incidents are taking place every month. In the six-month period mentioned, 2,152 militants were killed by the Army and paramilitary forces.
The most significant figure provided by PIPS is that showing the number of Pakistan Army casualties. In the six months in question, the total is just 39. Both the Frontier Corps and the police have had more deaths in a single month. Clearly the Army has, until now, had a policy of only limited engagement with the Taliban and its allies, while the other non-military forces have taken the brunt of the Taliban offensive.
Second, the Taliban in Pakistan is not the same as the Taliban in Afghanistan. The former is a coalition of various groups which, although they are united in wanting to establish an Islamic caliphate, have very clear political and religious differences. The chances of long-term stability of leadership are slim. There are few figures who are universally acknowledged as being pre-eminent. Several of the factions have been in open conflict with each other in the recent past.
It is worth emphasising also that the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) in Pakistan is not even solely a Pashtun organisation. As far back as the anti-Soviet jihad, it was true that many of the Taliban leaders based in Pakistan were in fact Punjabis – many of them seconded from the Pakistan Army. As the TTP has grown in influence over the last two years, it has also attracted attention from organisations such as Kashmiri-based Lashkar-e-Toiba which are known to have close connections to ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service.
Evidence of the growing influence of Punjabis on the Taliban comes from recent reports showing that the TTP is now operating within the Punjab itself. Eight police officers were killed on 6 February in an attack in Mianwali, a poor wheat-farming district on the border between Punjab and the North West Frontier Province.
Traders in the Punjabi city of Multan recently received leaflets warning that unveiled or unaccompanied women visiting the market would get acid thrown in their faces. The local medical school received threats telling it to cease educating women. The men involved In the March attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team while visiting Lahore (which is the capital of the Punjab) and a military police training academy are thought to be local, but trained in the tribal areas.
In April the TTP issued its first video in Punjabi. The video shows men preparing to attack NATO supply terminals on the outskirts of Peshawar
Speaking in Karachi last week, the well-known Pakistan writer Ahmed Rashid summed up the situation. He said "I no longer say that there's a creeping Talibanization in Pakistan; it's a galloping Talibanization."
He went on to say:
"The leadership of the Taliban is now in Pakistan, and they have stated their intention of overthrowing the government here. The Taliban are linking up with groups in Pakistan, and the Pakistani Taliban movement is turning into a multiethnic movement. Groups cultivated [by the Pakistani Army] to fight in Kashmir have joined up with the Pakistani Taliban, and include Punjabis, with organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Harkatul Mujahideen. Now, some 40 groups in Pakistan are loosely affiliated.... For that reason, Pakistan faces a more dangerous situation than Afghanistan, where Tajik and Uzbek fighters were not permitted to join the Afghan Taliban movement."
The real issue now for Pakistan is whether or not the Army can be persuaded to change its policy in relation to the jihadi groups. It has fostered and protected these organisations in order to pursue its policy of regaining control of Kashmir from India. Without a deal on Kashmir, the logic runs, there will be no deal to end the conflict in Afghanistan.
Now this policy has been revealed to be double-edged. As the TTP and its allies have grown in strength, they are intent on taking over control of the country. Pakistanis are slowly waking up to this fact and there is widespread support for the military action now taking place – not least from the millions of Pashtuns who have been forced to leave the tribal territories by the TTP and al-Qaeda and who live in poor conditions in Karachi and the Gulf.
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