Further indications Taliban wants to negotiate

A RUSI paper examining Taliban Perspectives on Reconciliation, written by Michael Semple, Theo Farrell, Anatol Lieven and Rudra Chaudhuri, can be found here.
Like Semple's last paper, it relies on his extensive contacts with elements of the Taliban leadership to explore three issues: Taliban links to al-Qaeda; the potential for a ceasefire and the continuing presence of US forces in the country.
Last time round, in July, the Taliban wasted no time in characterising Semple's contact as "mentally insane" for suggesting that many Taliban supporters regarded al-Qaeda as a "plague". 
This time, the four unnamed Taliban figures interviewed say that the organisation's leadership and base deeply regret their past association with al-Qaeda and that they would obey a call by Mullah Omar to renounce any links and prevent them operating on Afghan soil. They are even willing to allow US forces to stay on Afghan soil under certain circumstances.
It is clear that there is a strong faction within the Taliban that is willing to discuss a ceasefire. Only yesterday, in a statement issued to mark the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban reiterated its attitude towards al-Qaeda: "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan once again clarifies to the entire world including America that we are neither a threat to anyone nor will we let our soil be used to harm anyone. It is our due legal and religious right to defend our homeland and establish in it an Islamic system and we shall continue with our sacred struggle and Jihad against the invaders until we attain this right and we sincerely believe in being victorious in achieving this ambition and defeating the enemy."
The only thing now holding up negotiations is the American political process, where it is considered bad form to negotiate important deals that a successor administration may have to implement. Even if he is re-elected, Obama's team will no doubt waste further months attempting to ensure any settlement does not look like a military defeat for US forces.
Update: Predictably, the Taliban quickly issued a statement denying that it was willing to accept the presence of US troops in Afghanistan, calling it "fatuous jibber-jabber". The statement continued: "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan strongly condemns this malicious and strictly propaganda based report of the said think-tank and declares it has no plans of prolonging the American invasion of Afghanistan even for a single day. Our religion, national interests, national pride and values forbid us from making such illegitimate deals or agreeing to the continuation of invasion or accepting their revolting presence due to fear and our own safety. We believe that this report by the so called think-tank, based on the opinions of a few anonymous faces, is fabricated and consider it the direct work and move of the intelligence circles prepared for its people and for raising the moral of its defeated troops."

Semple's Mawlawi "mentally insane"

Not surprisingly, the Taliban has rejected the anti-Osama bin Laden comments made by a senior Taliban figure in an interview with Michael Semple (see below) last week: "Before everything else, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan categorically refutes this interview and deems it as nothing more than a shameful propaganda ploy of the deceitful flailing enemy. We have repeatedly demonstrated to our enemies for the past decade that the Mujahideen can do what could have never been imagined", says an article on their website under the name of their official spokesman. 
They don't hold back: "Sometimes they introduce a vegetable seller as a high ranking official of Islamic Emirate and try to solve the Afghan issue with him and sometimes an anonymous ‘Mawlawi’ as its important member and then publish such nonsense....the international media, in order to maintain in journalistic reputation, should avoid publishing such silliness of the mentally insane." 
Let's not go into the issue of reputations....

al-Qaeda a 'plague' - Taliban commander

The Taliban cannot win an outright victory in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda is a "plague sent down to us from the heavens" according to an interview with a senior Taliban figure conducted by Michael Semple in this week's edition of the New Statesman.
In extracts from the interview published in today's Guardian, the unnamed commander says "To tell the truth, I was relieved at the death of Osama [bin Laden]. Through his policies, he destroyed Afghanistan. If he really believed in jihad he should have gone to Saudi Arabia and done jihad there, rather than wrecking our country."
Interestingly, this echoes the statement I reported yesterday (see below) in which the Taliban appear to have 'de-invited' Arab fighters from Afghanistan.
Semple, an Irishman who lived in Afghanistan and Pakistan for over 25 years and who now teaches at Harvard, is a highly respected commentator on Afghanistan. In his New Statesman article he says he has known the unnamed Taliban commander for many years and knows just how well he is connected to the most senior level of the Taliban leadership.
All the indications suggest that the Taliban is approaching the forthcoming discussions in Qatar in a positive frame of mind. The sentiments quoted in Semple's article and the recent official Taliban statement on Arabs appear to be confidence-building measures to emphasise that they are willing to negotiate. Let's hope that the US emissaries approach the discussions with the same sense of purpose.

How to bring peace through reconciliation

When Michael Semple, the Irish-born and Dari-speaking UN deputy head of mission in Afghanistan was expelled from that country in December 2007 for allegedly talking to the Taliban, it was widely recognised that this was a major blow to Western efforts at reconciliation.
Semple was expelled together with Mervyn Patterson, a British-born UN official after they travelled to Helmand and made contact with tribal leaders close to the Taliban. The Afghan security services believed they were involved in unauthorised contacts and were offering to pay commanders who defected.
Although it was not said openly, the suspicion was that both men were working for MI6. It later transpired that both men were the victim of petty jealousies, with one local leader reporting them to the Afghan intelligence service because he feared being marginalised.
Semple and Patterson insisted that their talks were legitimate. In part they were based on theories that Semple has now outlined in much greater detail in a new publication called Reconcialiation in Afghanistan, published by the United States Institute for Peace.
In this short, but very readable book, Semple outlines his argument that peace is achievable in Afghanistan. He says two-thirds of the Taliban are fighting not for idealogical reasons, but due to local conflicts and that these networks can be persuaded to reach an accommodation with the government.
Semple says his book is based on interviews between 2004 and 2007 with around 200 Afghans who had been involved directly or indirectly in the country's insurgency, ranging from senior Taliban leaders to the lowest level of insurgent. At least one was a provincial commander. "Many of the men expressed their aspirations for the future," writes Semple, "and none of them came across as crazy or fanatic."
The book gives excellent descriptions of all the attempts to date to open negotiations with insurgents in Afghanistan and offers many strategies for continuing that process. He says:
"To date, the focus of the Afghan government and international partners has been primarily on achieving subjugation or co-option of the armed opposition. But these efforts have achieved little strategic effects, partly because the fear of appeasement or capitulation has been used to deter potially effective measures of accommodation."
This book should be required reading for all military personnel in Afghanistan.