USIP warns on pitfalls of peace negotiations

A report due to be published tomorrow on the dangers of talking peace with the Taliban, written by Matt Waldman for the US Institute for Peace, recommends that the Afghan-international coalition should engage in direct or indirect talks with the Taliban, but that the latter organisation is divided and has within it groupings whose objectives vary enormously.
In Dangerous Liaisons with the Afghan Taliban: The Feasibility and Risks of Negotiations, Waldman says that confidence building with the Taliban may involve delisting and releasing insurgents - already happening if my previous story is true - while ensuring careful control and reciprocity.
He correctly notes that any agreement could threaten human rights and freedoms, particularly for women. He says any power-sharing settlement will need to be inclusive, just and must address the underlying causes of the conflict.
This report is the third on a similar subject by Waldman this year. His first, Golden Surrender, was written for the Aghan Analysts Network and the second, The Sun and the Sky, was for the London School of Economics. That report was criticised in some quarters for alleging that up to seven members of the Taliban's ruling shura were ISI agents.

More on Waldman and the ISI

Has the London School of Economics distanced itself from Matt Waldman's report, published last week (see below), claiming that the Taliban is 'run' by commanders, many of whom are agents of the Pakistan Intelligence Service, the ISI?
When the story broke a week ago the report itself was not available on the LSE's website, although selected journalists had been given prior access. Thus is was impossible to check the precise nature of the claims.
When it was finally published on the website of LSE's Crisis States Research Centre on Tuesday, the report was introduced with comments by Professor James Putzel, director of the Centre. "This report is based on research carried out in Afghanistan, including interviews with important Taliban commanders who clearly believe that they are being 'run' by Pakistan's intelligence service," he says.
He continues: "The prevalence of such beliefs among insurgents themselves and the critical stance they take towards the relationship between their leadership networks and elements of the Pakistani military and intelligence services may prove to be important as Afghans continue to explore the prospects for reaching a peace agreement."
The meaning of these two sentences is very different to the statements attributed to Waldman - and heard in the al-Jazeera interview below - in that Putzel is referring to the beliefs of Taliban commanders, rather than the fact of a relationship between them and the ISI.
Putzel also talks about 'elements' of the ISI, suggesting possibly a rogue faction, rather than emphasising - as Waldman did - that it was 'official' ISI policy to manage the Taliban.
Looking at the report itself, it appears to be more cautious in the way it reports the relationship between the Taliban and the ISI, stating merely that "Although the Taliban has a strong endogenous impetus, according to Taliban commanders the ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences the movement. They say it gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and supplies." This is uncontentious and widely known.
What is more controversial is the suggestion that the ISI is "represented" on the Quetta Shura or that Pakistan's President Zardari recently assured capture Taliban leaders of his continuing backing. On these points, more evidence please.

ISI officially represented on Taliban shura - report

Pakistani military intelligence not only funds and trains Taliban fighters in Afghanistan but is officially represented on the movement's leadership council, giving it significant influence over operations, a report released on Sunday said.
The report, The Sun and the Sky: the relationship between Pakisan's ISI and Afghan Insurgents, written by Harvard scholar Matt Waldman and published by the London School of Economics, says research strongly suggested support for the Taliban was the "official policy" of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Waldman says up to seven members of the Taliban's shura are ISI agents. You can view an al-Jazeera interview with Waldman above.
Links between the some members and former members of the ISI and Islamist militants have been known about for some time, but Waldman's report is new in suggesting that this is the organisation's official policy.
The LSE report states: “As the provider of sanctuary and substantial financial, military and logistical support to the insurgency, the ISI appears to have strong strategic and operational influence — reinforced by coercion. There is thus a strong case that the ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign.”
It also alleges that Asif Ali Zardari, the president of Pakistan, recently met captured Taliban leaders to assure them that the Taliban had his government’s full support, although this has been vigorously denied by Zardari’s spokesman.