State Dept (finally) designates Maulvi Nazir group

The US Department of State has announced, rather belatedly, that what it theatrically refers to as the ‘Commander Wazir Group’ of South Waziristan and one of its alleged leaders , ‘Sub Commander Malang Wazir’ are to be designated as a global terrorists. Steady on boys! This is not South America! A detailed investigation into the various factions in South Waziristan written by Mansur Khan Mahsud of the FATA Research Centre in 2010, makes no mention of Maulvi Nazir's group being known by this name.

Leaving aside the fact that Maulvi Wazir himself was killed in a US drone strike in January, it seems a little odd to me that State has decided to designate ‘sub commander’ Malang Wazir, who is known to be part of the leadership, but has chosen not to mention Bahawal Khan, also called Salahuddin Ayubi, who was announced as Nazir's successor.

Bahawal Khan, said to be aged 34 and an illiterate former bus driver, is a long-time close associate of Mullah Nazir, the two men having fought together alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan before the 2001 US invasion. Bahawal Khan is seen as hot-tempered, unlike his predecessor.

No fall in Taliban attacks in 2012

So reported attacks by the Taliban did not fall by 7 per cent last year, according to the AFP news agency. ISAF had previously published the figures on its website, but yesterday was forced to admit they were wrong. "This is a regrettable error in our database systems that was discovered during a routine quality check. We are making the appropriate adjustments," said Pentagon spokesman George Little.

Officials later explained that the figures were wrong because some had come from Afghan units which had not entered the figures correctly into a database. Literacy and levels of education in some of the units is low, according to reports. In fact Taliban attacks in 2012 totalled around 3,000, about the same as the previous year.

Panorama preview at the Frontline tonight

At the Frontline Club in London tonight, where we will be previewing a Panorama film, directed by Ben Anderson, on Helmand. Anderson's film, Mission Accomplished? The Secrets of Helmand, shows that American combat troops have already withdrawn, training has been reduced, not accelerated - and the Afghan Security Forces are not ready to take over. Casualty rates are as high as ever, they are just all Afghan now, the Taliban are as strong as ever, locals say their lives have not improved and the police still look like part of the problem. 
I will be chairing the discussion following the screening of the film. Also on the panel are Dawood Azami, former BBC World Service Bureau Chief and Editor in Kabul, and Will Pike who served as a British Army Major in Afghanistan, and on the Afghan Desk at the MOD before leaving the Army in late 2007.

US Army on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

The US Army's Foreign Military Studies Office at Ft Leavenworth has published an interesting essay on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Written by Matthew Stein, The Goals of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Its Impact on Central Asia and the United States the document looks into "the history, current operations, and goals of the IMU". Conclusions: "The current lack of consistent leadership and subsequent goals has meant that the IMU is difficult to differentiate from other militant or terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan or Pakistan, particularly when the remnants of the IMU rely on others to stay operational. The IMU’s goals are now more dependent on and reflective of these other groups. For the United States, the IMU remains a threat while the country’s forces remain in Afghanistan, although the threat is more from associated groups with better capabilities. For the governments of Central Asia, the IMU remains a threat, but a minor one compared to the capabilities of the group in 1999-2000. Ultimately, the group has become more of a misnomer than a threat to stability."

Pakistan Taliban leader Hakimullah Mahsud with IMU's Usman Odil

Civilian casualties fall for first time in six years

A total of 2,754 civilians were killed and 4,805 injured in Afghanistan in armed conflict during 2012, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)  These numbers reflect a 12 percent reduction in civilian deaths and a minimal increase in civilians injured compared to 2011, but they also underscore the continuing high human cost of armed conflict in Afghanistan Over the past six years, 14,728 Afghan civilians have lost their lives in the armed conflict.
Anti-Government Elements - most the Taliban - increasingly targeted civilians throughout the country and UNAMA documented 6,131 civilian casualties (2,179 civilian deaths and 3,952 injuries)  in 2012, an increase of nine percent compared to 2011. 81 percent of the total civilian casualties in 2012 were attributed to Anti-Government Elements.

UNAMA recorded a 108 percent increase in civilian casualties from targeted killings and a rise in casualties from the indiscriminate use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), particularly illegal pressure plate IEDs which are victim-activated. 

Eight percent of all civilian casualties (316 deaths and 271 injuries) were attributed to Pro-Government Forces in 2012, a 46 percent decrease from 2011. Civilian casualties from the actions of Afghan National Security Forces in 2012 were consistent with numbers documented 2011 with 96 civilian casualties (33 civilian deaths and 63 injuries), the majority occurring during ground engagements.The remaining 841 civilian casualties (259 deaths and 582 injured) could not be attributed and occurred in crossfire incidents during ground engagements, cross-border shelling or from explosive remnants of war.
One interesting fact contained in the report: the number of weapons released by drones jumped from 294 in 2011 to 506 in 2012 - a 72 percent increase in Afghanistan.
UNAMA documented five incidents of drone strikes which resulted in 16 civilian deaths and three injuries, an increase from 2011 when UNAMA documented one incident involving civilians. There are no figures for the number of combatants killed by drones.
Most of the civilian casualties from drone strikes in 2012 appear to be the result of weapons aimed directly at insurgents. However, some may have been due to targeting errors. For example, UNAMA documented one incident that occurred on 20 October 2012 when a drone struck in Baraki Barak district, Logar province, killing four children, aged between 11 and 13 years. Three boys died immediately while the fourth died during the transport to a Kabul hospital.

Pay up or get out - the plague of corruption

Corruption continues to plague Afghanistan, according to a new report from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Half of Afghan citizens paid a bribe last year while requesting a public service and the total cost of bribes paid to public officials amounted to US$ 3.9 billion - an increase of 40 per cent in real terms between 2009 and 2012, while the ratio of bribery cost to GDP remained relatively constant (23 per cent in 2009; 20 per cent in 2012).
Corruption is also seen by most Afghans as one of the most urgent challenges facing their country and yet seems to be increasingly embedded in social practices, with patronage and bribery being an acceptable part of day-to-day life. Thus 68 per cent of those interviewed in 2012 considered it acceptable for a civil servant to top up a low salary by accepting small bribes from service users (as opposed to 42 per cent in 2009). Similarly, 67 per cent considered it sometimes acceptable for a civil servant to be recruited on the basis of family ties and friendship networks (up from 42 per cent in 2009).
Afghanistan has made a little progress in reducing the level of corruption within the public sector. While 59 per cent of the adult population had to pay at least one bribe to a public official in 2009, 50 per cent had to do so in 2012, and whereas 52 per cent of the population paid a bribe to a police officer in 2009, 42 per  cent did so in 2012.
But worrying trends have also emerged: the frequency of bribery has increased from 4.7 bribes to 5.6 bribes per bribe-payer with the average cost of a bribe rising from US$158 to US$214. Education has emerged as one of the sectors most vulnerable to corruption, with the percentage of those paying a bribe to a teacher jumping from 16 per cent in 2009 to 51 per cent in 2012. In general, there has been no major change in the level of corruption observed in the judiciary, customs service and local authorities, which remained high in 2012, as in 2009.

Death and injury in war - the bare facts

A total of 2,165 US servicemembers have been killed so far in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), in Afghanistan, and 18,230 have been wounded in action. In addition, since 2000 (and therefore including US activities in Iraq) a total of more than 131,000 servicemembers have been diagnosed with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and more than 250,000 have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injury. 
Of this latter diagnosis, about 195,000 have been mild, 42,000 were moderate and around 6,500 have been severe or penetrating. All figures come from a new report from the Congressional Research Service.
Nearly 700 servicemembers in Afghanistan have lost major limbs due to battle-injury amputations, with another 28 losing part of a foot or hand.
The Department of Defense says 97 servicemembers died of self-inflicted wounds while serving in OEF. Ninety-eight per cent of those killed in Afghanistan were men, with a total of 42 women having been killed.
A breakdown by race shows that 85.4% of those killed were classified as white, 7.9% as black or African American, 2.7% were Asian and 1.3% American Indian/Alaska Native.
A total of 23,742 servicemembers were air-evacuated for medical reasons from Afghanistan, of which about a third were due to battle injuries.

Mental disorders suffered by US Veterans.

A Congressional Research Service report on mental disorders amongst Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom veterans says that of the 1.6 million veterans in touch with the Veterans Administration (VA), about 14% suffer from a major depressive disorder, whilst a further 22 suffer from less serious depressive disorders.
About 29% are said to suffer from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder; 6% are said to be alcohol dependent; 3% are drug dependent; and 5% are drug abusers. The VA stress that there are important limitations on the data, which are explained in the report.

Where have all the schools gone?

A new report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) looks into the issue of a web-based geospatial database that is intended to provide USAID with an accurate picture of infrastructure development in Afghanistan. What they found is that the accuracy of the data leaves a lot to be desired.
SIGAR looked into the accuracy of the Afghanistan Infrastructure and Security Cartography System (AISCS). AISCS was developed by International Relief and Development, Inc. (IRD), a USAID contractor, and was designed to include geospatial information on development activities, including construction of roads, schools, clinics, hospitals, and public buildings such as courthouses and district centers.
IRD aimed to obtain infrastructure project site information from the USAID mission in Afghanistan, as well as the Department of Defense, and verify the accuracy of that information. According to IRD, it has “stringent ongoing multi-tiered quality control protocols in place to insure accuracy and precision collected data [sic]."
But when SIGAR tested the data it found that these "stringent ongoing multi-tiered quality control protocols"were not worth tuppence. This is what they found:
"We observed that, of the 33,000 records in AISCS, only 16 percent were shown as having confirmed locations. We selected 10 projects from AISCS and asked CITF to corroborate the  projects’ stated locations using a variety of unclassified and classified sources. These 10 projects were spread geographically throughout Afghanistan and represented various sectors, including health, education, government, transportation, and hydroelectric power.
         "CITF found that location coordinates for 4 of the 10 projects were highly accurate, but were significantly inaccurate for 3 of the 10. For the remaining 3 projects, CITF determined that insufficient corroborating information was available to assess the spatial accuracy of the coordinates. In other words, CITF was unable to locate the project."
Concerned with the inaccuracy of the initial results, SIGAR decided to look in detail at the geospatial locations of schools built with USAID money, eventually checking the data for 227 schools.
What did they find?:
"Specifically, of the 227 schools, NGA found that 185 (81%) of them were at the given coordinates. However, NGA could not confirm the coordinates for the remaining 42 records (19%). Specifically, for 12 of the records (5%), NGA determined that there was a school within 400 meters of the given coordinates; for 20 (9%), there was no school within 400 meters; and for 8 (4%), NGA was unable to make a determination. NGA considered two of the schools (1%) to be duplicates.
      "SIGAR considers the coordinates for these 42 records (19%) to be questionable. Based on our sample, we project with 95% confidence that between 74 and 129 of the total 549 completed, USAID-funded schools in Afghanistan have location coordinates that cannot be verified using geospatial means or are incorrect."

Car rally planned for S. Wazirstan - are you serious?

I think I must be dreaming. According to The Guardian the Pakistan Army has announced that a car rally will take place along a 130-km route in South Waziristan in the last week of March. It will start outside the tribal agency and pass through Kotkai, a former Taliban-controlled town where militants once trained child suicide bombers.
Organisers hope about 50 cars and their back-up vehicles will take part in the race. I can just imagine it, can't you?
Yes, and they're lining up for the off!
In pole position, driving a Toyota technical, complete with 50mm machine gun mounting, is Hakimullah 'Hot Rod' Mahsud, with co-driver Waliur Rahman.
Sorry! Last-minute change - Rahman is a late entry in his own car, a camouflaged Humvee. "Of course we are not rivals," says Mr Rahman. "This is just good old fashioned competition. I have no doubt I will win in the long run."
"It's a long time since I've been in this part of the country," said Hakimullah. "I'm not sure I will remember the route." He denied that he would not be on board his car for certain parts of the journey: "Any suggestion that I will not travel through those bits of the rally route that pass near the Ahmedzai Wazir areas are completely untrue. We are like brothers," he protested. "Anyway, who painted that large cross on the top of my car?"

TTP's affection for Mr Bean

Mr Malik

Mr Bean

Interesting to see that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has a soft spot for Mr Bean. A couple of days ago the organisation's spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan issued a statement "To Mr Bean of Pakistan, His Excellency Rehman Malik" (you can find a copy here).
The statement suggests that Interior Minister Malik should not concern himself too much about death threats from the TTP as they have no intention of killing him: "We want to (be) clear that TTP has no plan to kill Mr Bean, because his ridiculous statements and stances always give favour to TTP. TTP will let him alive (because) he is fruitful for us."
After making it clear that the TTP wants to see the imposition of its form of Islam on the whole of Pakistan, Ihsan goes on to complain about Pakistani Army activities in North Waziristan saying "There is curfew in Miranshah city, and heavy shelling from gunship helicopters and cannons on civilian population in Machis area, The houses are downed to earth. Maybe some Malalas underneath.The killing of women and children is feared. The city resembles Dhaka of 1971. Would you like to report it and dare to ask Army what is good reason of these showers of blessing?"
The statement goes on to give the relevant phone numbers, just in case you want to take up their offer:
"Political Agent North Waziristan Agency at 0928-300798
or Military Camps in North Waziristan at Army 0928-311973
or FC Tochi Scouts 0928-310178 or NLI 0928-320249
or GSO-2 Ops army 0927-312877
or DAAG 7 Div army 091-8700-3123".
How very thoughtful of them!

Torture persists in Afghan prisons - UNAMA

"Despite significant efforts by the Government of Afghanistan and international partners to address ill-treatment of conflict-related detainees, torture persists and remains a serious concern in numerous detention facilities across Afghanistan." So says UNAMA in a report released at the weekend. You can read the full 139-page report here.

How the TTP is creating an educational wasteland

Hundreds of schools have been destroyed by militants in Pakistan

It's hard to understand the logic of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) policy of destroying schools in FATA and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP). They have never really explained it, other than to say that the buildings are sometimes used as barracks by the Army and Frontier Constabulary (FC). 
Nor is it only girls' schools that have been destroyed. The militants appear to make no distinction. Are they anti-intellectual? Do they not want their children to be able to read and write? Perhaps they are in favour of keeping the tribal people in ignorance and darkness? Certainly there can be no religious justification for their attitude.
The consequences for Pakistan are shocking. UNESCO's Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2012 states that Pakistan had a total of 5.1 million children out of school, making it the nation with second highest percentage of out-of-school children in the world, behind Nigeria. The UNESCO figures show that around three-quarters of Pakistani girls are not in primary school and the number finishing five years of education has declined. Adult literacy is projected to fall almost 15 per cent in the next three or four years.
And yet the destruction continues. Official data from the Conflict Monitoring Centre in Pakistan shows that over 758 schools have been destroyed in KP alone, including 640 in Malakand Division, between 2009 and 2011. According to the FATA Secretariat militants have destroyed 450 schools, including 68 boys and 26 girls schools in Bajaur, 66 boys and 23 girls schools in Mohmand and 31 boys and 27 girls schools in Khyber Agency.
Although aid agencies have tried to provide funds to rebuild some of these schools, the work is very slow. In FATA only 17 per cent of destroyed schools have been rebuilt. And there does not seem to be much political will to rebuild either. The KP government allocated just 2.21 per cent of its budget for 2012-13 for rebuilding schools.

The Limits to Justice, pt4

Col. James Pohl, the military judge presiding over the prosecution of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and his four alleged accomplices in the 9/11 trial at Guantanamo Bay ruled that the U.S. Constitution may not always apply in the case, according to a defense attorney.

Monitoring the mineral miners

A detailed analysis by Global Witness of the 2008 Aynak agreement between the Government of Afghanistan and the China Metallurgical Construction Company/Jiangxi Copper Company consortium provides the first insight into what the deal means for Afghanistan's future.
According to the report, Copper Bottomed? Bolstering the Aynak Contract: Afghanistan's first major mining deal, there are positive economic, infrastructure and social commitments, as well as crucial commitments to protecting the local community and environment from potential adverse impacts from mining.
This one deal alone is projected to generate an estimated $541 million a year by 2016 and to create around 5,000 jobs. Other mineral contracts are likely to follow, including the huge Hajigak iron ore concession.
However, these are undermined by serious gaps and weaknesses. For example, even though the Afghan government has published over 200 extractive contracts in the last few months, the main Aynak contract has not been published and therefore the Afghan people cannot see the terms agreed.
Nor is there any contractual obligation to engage communities on decisions and plans that directly affect them.  High royalty rates are undermined by provisions which enable renegotiation, and priority access to other resources at the site. Key human rights and cultural protections are absent, and it is not clear how commitments to best practice will be implemented and monitored.
In response to the GW report, in December the Afghan government agreed to publish the Aynak contract and to make various other concessions.
Also worth viewing is the GW report on Afghanistan's gold mining industry, Getting to Gold, published last April.