Newsweek interview with Agha Jan Motasim

Great interview by Newsweek's Sami Yousafzai and Ron Moreau with Agha Jan Motasim, former head of the Taliban's Quetta Shura Committee until last summer, when he was gunned down in a Karachi street by hardline opponents within the organisation.

Pak govt received advance warning of Bannu jailbreak

The destroyed gates at Bannu Central Prison

It's gone almost unreported in the Western press, but the jailbreak at Bannu Central Prison in the northwest of the country on 15 April, in which 384 inmates (out of 944) escaped following an attack by around 150 militants, is the largest such escape in Pakistan's history.
Not only that, but the central government was warned by the security services of an impending attack on the prison as far back as 5 January in a letter which identified Bannu jail as a target, along with Kohat's Air Force base and the local police station.
The militants, from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, blew up the prison gates and freed their comrades-in-arms, with scarcely any opposition. They arrived in a convoy of about 20 vehicles and were armed with RPGs and assault rifles. All access roads were blocked as they broke into the prison.
So confident were they of their safety that the unnamed commander of the raid called journalists afterwards to brag about his audacious attack. “We had maps of the area and we had complete maps and plans of the jail as well,” the commander told Reuters.
“All I have to say is we have people who support us in Bannu. It was with their support that this operation was successful.”
The attackers moved quickly through the prison, apparently seeking out Adnan Rasheed, a former junior technician in the Pakistan Air Force who had been sentenced to death for his part in a 2003 plot to kill former president Pervez Musharraf.
“We had set one hour as the target time for our mission. This included entering the jail, breaking out our people, getting back into our vehicles and reaching a safe spot,” said the commander, although they were actually in the prison for two hours.
Their job was made easier by the fact that there were only 36 poorly equipped  guards on duty instead of the 150 called for. None had had any formal training and some of the rifles they were using were being sought by locals as antiques to hang on their walls. They quickly gave up any resistance, while Police reinforcements arrived only after the attackers had withdrawn.
It has since emerged that Rasheed was reportedly contributing to several social networking sites including Facebook and various blogs while he was on death row in prison. A reporter who received regular messages from him said that he had access to a cell phone in almost all the places he was held and had had to change his number several times.
Since the jailbreak 108 prisoners have returned voluntarily while 35 others had been arrested. At least one has been shot dead. The KP government has removed Bannu Division’s Commissioner Abdullah Mehsud, Inspector General (Prisons) Arshad Majeed Mohmand, Deputy Inspector General (Bannu Range) Muhammad Iftikhar Khan and Deputy Superintendent (Bannu Jail) Muhammad Zahid from their posts and put them on 'special duty'.
A five-member committee set up on the order of Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti has been asked to complete its inquiry within 15 days.

UPDATE: It is being suggested in some quarters in Pakistan that the raid on Bannu Prison is not all it appears to be. According to some sources, the 'raid' was part of a deal between the TTP and the ISI connected to the release of two Swiss hostages in March who had been held by the former since July last year. Olivier David Och, 31, and Daniela Widmer, 28, were kidnapped in Baluchistan, around 170 kilometres east of Quetta, but released in North Waziristan. 

According to reports, the TTP were told in advance that there would be no opposition to their attack on the prison if they freed the two hostages.

* This is the 500th article I have written for Circling the Lion's Den since it began in November 2008. More than 77,000 people have visited the site and monthly hits presently average around 5,000.

Pay up or go to Hell - Taliban financial offer

Funds appear to be getting tight for the Taliban, whose Financial Commission has issued a plea for funds on the organisation's website - backed by the threat of Hellfire.
The statement makes the point that anyone who does not give them funds will die a hypocrite and go to Hell: "Thus, save yourself from a greater hardship in the Hereafter and protect yourself against hellfire." 
The article suggests "saving up" for the Hereafter by making payments to the Islamic Emirate's Financial Commission. It offers a couple of phone numbers and a couple of email addresses - almost like having a direct line to God. Do these people really believe that you can buy salvation? I thought that is what they preached against.
PS I do not advise you to take advantage of this financial opportunity. You may be disappointed.

Article on KSM published in the Guardian

My latest article for The Guardian, on the impending capital military trial for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four others, is now published and can be found here.

Current peace talks unlikely to build peace - ICG

Current talks with the Taliban are unlikely to result in a sustainable peace, according to a report from the International Crisis Group.
Talking about Talks: towards a political settlement in Afghanistan says negotiations could even lead to further destabilisation of the country. The Afghan security forces will find it hard to fill the power vacuum following the withdrawal of foreign troops and growing political differences within the country will undermine the prospects for peace. The ICG recommends the appointment of a UN-mandated mediation team and the adoption of a more realistic approach to resolving the conflict.
The report says President Karzai's government and its international backers have adopted a "market bazaar" approach to negotiations: "Bargains are being cut with any and all comers, regardless of their political relevance or ability to influence outcomes. Far from being Afghan-led, the negotiating agenda has been dominated by Washington’s desire to obtain a decent interval between the planned U.S. troop drawdown and the possibility of another bloody chapter in the conflict."
The ICG report adds that efforts to start negotiations have been half-hearted and haphazard, stoking fears among ethnic minorities, civil society and women: "A thorough reassessment of Karzai’s national reconciliation policy, the role of the High Peace Council and the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP) is urgently needed. The program has faced staunch resistance from local security officials mistrustful of participants’ motives, and its impact has been minimal at best."
It's another very depressing report.

Crisis deepens in Pakistan's northern areas

ASWJ rally in Gilgit today

Sad to say that Gilgit-Baltistan is becoming engulfed in sectarian violence following the bloody massacre of 18 Shiites in February (see my report on that event here).
Today another 10 people were killed in two incidents. Five died in Gilgit when hand grenades were thrown at a rally of the violently anti-Shia Ahle Sunnah Wal Jamaat organisation, who were protesting at the arrest of one of their leaders, Attaullah Saqib. He is known to be the leader of the Gilgit branch of Sipah-e-Sabah, a viciously sectarian organisation. Why they were allowed to hold a rally in a predominantly Shia area at a time of heightened tension is anyone's guess.
A few hours later, in a repeat of the original massacre that ignited the troubles in the northern areas, five people were taken off buses in Chilat and shot dead by the side of the road. Four vehicles were set on fire. In that original incident in February 18 men were taken from buses travelling along the Karakorum Highway in Kohistan by men wearing army uniform and shot at the side of the road.
All government, non-government and education institutions have been closed for an indefinite period and the Army has been deployed onto the streets to enforce a curfew. What an entirely avoidable tragedy.

US looks into possibility of nuclear drones

My article on the American development of nuclear-powered drones has been published by The Guardian. You can find it here.

Investigation into Uruzgan 'mis-targetting' published

In February 2010 23 Afghans travelling in three vehicles in Uruzgan province were attacked and killed by US helicopters firing Hellfire missiles and aerial rockets. A commander on the ground engaged in an operation thought the civilians were insurgents attempting to execute a flanking manoeuvre on his soldiers.
The investigation into the event, in which women and children were also injured, has now been published and blames "inaccurate and unprofessional reporting of the Predator crew" that was controlling the drone circling overhead at the time and was based thousands of miles away at Creech airforce base in Nevada, as well as "poorly functioning command posts" in Afghanistan.
The full report, totalling 2,100 pages, can be found here. A shocking interview with a female Afghan survivor in hospital can be found here.

Analyzing the US Army Human Terrain Teams

More on the US Army's Human Terrain System, which I have touched on several times before (here  and here). The US Army's Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin for Oct-Dec 2011 is a special issue devoted to the subject. Some of the articles relate to Iraq, but several are devoted to the HTS in Afghanistan, including case studies of Rural Human Terrain in Kandahar, engaging local religious leaders in the Central Helmand River Valley and articles on bilingual data collection and HTS support to Information Operations.
One paper describes how a HTT demonstrated that a micro-credit programme could provide farmers with an alternative to relying on (pro-Taliban) lenders for financing and in the longer term, free them from becoming subject to a cycle of debt. The brigade intelligence officer then integrated the analysis into its targeting cycle, using a farming cycle calendar to determine the times of the year when farmers were most vulnerable to financial pressure from insurgents.
This all seems very interesting, but as one of the papers notes: "Difficulties integrating HTS teams into Army units arise because the HTS program brings together two professions (social science and military studies) that tend to operate within different problem-solving paradigms, speak different languages, consist of different personalities, and have misconceptions one about the other. Academia is stereotyped as theoretical, long winded, and perhaps of no practical use at the moment. Military studies are stereotyped as too practical, laconic, and operating under the slogan that a 70 percent solution is good enough right now in the battle space." Quite.

Bearing witness to a massacre

Congratulations to Wall Street Journal reporters Charles Levinson, Yaroslav Trofimov and Ghousuddin Frotan whose report on the victims of the massacre allegedly perpetrated by Staff Sgt Robert Scott Bales actually names all those killed and wounded. Almost all the reports I have read on this shocking event avoid mentioning the names of anyone except householders or informants. Reporters have a duty to bear witness, but sadly those civilians killed or injured by military action in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) are seldom identified by major media outlets.

Afghan killings by Bales a war crime?

Article 3 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, to which the United States is a signatory, makes it a war crime to murder civilians. If the killing of a civilian - a non-combatant - is intentional or is not justified by military necessity, a war crime has been committed. For example, the execution of hostages or prisoners would be such a crime. In an international conflict, the violation could be prosecuted as wilful killing under the grave breaches provisions of the four Geneva Conventions of 1949; in an internal conflict, the crime could be prosecuted as murder under domestic law of the country where the killings took place or under Article 3.

Therefore it came as a surprise today to read that Staff Sergeant Robert Scott Bales is to be prosecuted in America under US Army law on 17 counts of murder, six counts of attempted murder and other violations of military law, for the alleged massacre of 17 – up from 16 – Afghans on 11 March in Panjwai. 

Can anyone explain why he was removed from the scene of the crime to Kansas and is being prosecuted in the United States and not at the International War Crimes Tribunal?Already it has been made clear that he will not face the death penalty for his alleged crimes and that there will be probably be 'difficulties' getting Afghan witnesses to come to America to testify. This decision stinks of old fashioned imperialism.

Army killer a known conman

So it turns out that mass killer Staff Sgt Robert Scott Bales, who shot 16 men, women and children dead in Panjwai last week, is a conman who "engaged in fraud, breach of fiduciary duty, churning, unauthorised trading and unsuitable investments." America's Financial Industry Regulatory Authority found that while Bales had been working as a stockbroker in 2003 he had taken a client's stock to sell, but had not handed over any money. Here is a link to the FINRA report on Bales.
Following arbitration Bales was ordered to pay $637,000 in compensation to the elderly couple he defrauded, a similar amount in punitive damages and $216,000 in legal fees. Instead of paying up, Bales - who had been banned from working as a broker - joined the Army and 'disappeared', declining even to show up at the disciplinary hearing that barred him from associating with "any NASD member in any capacity". Doubtless he "can't remember" that incident either.

A few words from the ISI's director-general

Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, who retired on Sunday as DG of ISI

Public utterances by leaders of the ISI in Pakistan are few and far between. So the leaked email from Stratfor's Kamran Bokhari describing his meeting last April with ISI director-general Lt-Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha - who retired on Sunday - makes for interesting reading. The email is one of five million hacked by the Anonymous hacking group and posted by Wikileaks. Whilst many of the leaked emails are speculative or opinionated, this particular email, from Stratfor's main Middle East analyst, reports a conversation and is thus more interesting.
Bokhari, who had met Pasha twice before, met the ISI director general in the ISI's new headquarters building in Islamabad. After describing the extremely tight security at the building, the conversation began with pleasantries about Libya and the Raymond Davis case, which Pasha said could have been solved "if the Americans had kept it between the CIA and the ISI". Pasha added that there were "unresolved questions" about the two men shot dead by Davis: "He said they were not ISI sleuths as some suspect. Rather, low level thugs who had a lot of cash on them and in different currencies...".
Pasha said that the domestic insurgency situation in Pakistan was improving, although "it would take another 10-12 years to completely get rid of the issue and a lot depends on how the Americans settle Afghanistan." Pasha said he had been arguing for several years for an operation in North Waziristan, but that the issue was one of logistics. "The only way to mount an offensive in North Waziristan is through South Waziristan, which we are trying to stabilize with the building of roads and resettlement of locals. We also needed to stabilize the tribal agencies to the north of North Waziristan, which is also a work in progress. Once we have achieved our goals of stabilizing South Waziristan, we will move into North Waziristan."
Pasha said the Americans were wrong to think that Pakistan wanted the Taliban to come to power again. This was an outdated view, he said. Pakistan wanted a broad-based government that can end the civil war. This would include the Taliban, but not exclusively: "Such a govt can only come about when the Karzai government can reach a negotiated settlement with the insurgents, which is not going to happen by talking to the former Talibs like Zaeef, Mutawakkil, etc. I asked him if the Obama admin had approached Pakistan to help with the negotiations. He said no such thing happening, which he said was the problem. He added that DC and Kabul need to involve us in the process because if anyone can deliver it is us and we have an interest in doing so. Look at what happened during that incident with the meeting with the man who they thought was Mullah Mansoor but in reality he was a shopkeeper who swindled them for money and made a mockery of everyone including Petraeus who actually met the guy (laughs and smirks at this point)."
I think we all laughed and smirked at that point.

Taliban talks breakdown over Bergdahl exchange?

Florian Flade, who writes the very useful Jih@d website, is the latest to suggest that Bowe Bergdahl, the American soldier held by the Haqqani Network in Pakistan, is the 'Western hostage' who was being lined up for release in exchange for five high-ranking Taliban prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay. A negative political reaction to the deal in Washington is the likely reason talks with the Taliban broke down last week.
Flade notes that on 31 January the Obama Administration briefed US Senate leaders that a prisoner transfer deal was being considered. In exchange for an unnamed hostage, the five Taliban leaders slated for release to house arrest in Qatar were due to include former Taliban interior minister Mullah Khair Khowa, former provincial governor Noorullah Noori and former commander Mullah Fazul Akhund.
However, the reaction from the eight Senate leaders was lukewarm to say the least; most refused to comment directly on the deal or to confirm Bergdahl's participation, but several made negative-sounding comments: "If it's intended to be a ‘confidence-building measure,' that is an extreme measure. If it's a swap, it's worthy of consideration of Congress, if that is the premise of it," said Senator John McCain.
Senate Intelligence Committee chair Dianne Feinstein said "These are major Taliban figures, they are not minor people. And they will not be in the same kind of custody, maximum-security custody. Forget that it won't be Guantánamo, just maximum-security custody," she said. "And in my view, there's no way of knowing what they may do and what kind of propaganda they may breed."
This negative reaction to the proposed deal is the likely reason that the Taliban broke off negotiations with the Americans last week.
As the Taliban noted in a formal statement on its own website last Thursday: "the political envoys of the Islamic Emirate agreed upon the inauguration of a diplomatic office, the arrangement about which was already made with the government of Qatar and started holding preliminary talks with the occupying enemy over the exchange of prisoners. The Americans initially agreed upon taking practical steps regarding the exchange of prisoners and to not oppose our political office but with the passage of time, they turned their backs on their promises and started initiating baseless propaganda portraying the envoys of the Islamic Emirate as having commenced multilateral negotiations for solving the Afghan dilemma."
Clearly pissed off with the apparent backtracking by the Americans, the Taliban added: "the Islamic Emirate has decided to suspend all talks with Americans taking place in Qatar from today onwards until the Americans clarify their stance on the issues concerned and until they show willingness in carrying out their promises instead of wasting time."
Bergdahl has been held by the Taliban since 20 June 2009, when he walked out of a military outpost in Paktika and disappeared. Since then the Taliban has issued five videos featuring him. In most of these videos Bergdahl appears to be somewhat cooperative with his captors, although his family and supporters deny this. He has spoken critically of US foreign policy and there are unconfirmed reports that he has converted to Islam. In his last video he was wearing a long beard. His captor is thought to be Mullah Sangin Zadran, a powerful warlord loyal to the Haqqanis from the Zadran tribe that straddles the Afghan border and into North Waziristan.

US Army smartbook now a smart app

Screenshot of Afghanistan Smart Book app

Not sure how I missed it after all this time, but it is worth taking a look at the US Army's Afghanistan Smart Book, recommended to soldiers deploying to Afghanistan and now available as a smartphone download. Previous editions of the book for 2011, 2010 and 2009 were in printed format. Written by the Army's TRADOC Culture Center, the aim of the publication is "To ensure that US Army personnel have a relevant, comprehensive guide to use in capacity building and counterinsurgency operations while deployed in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan." No obvious errors in this publication, although comments are welcome. The same cannot be said of the Pre-deployment Afghanistan Reading List, published by the US Army's Combined Arms Center which still recommends Greg Mortenson's Three Cups of Tea: One Man's Mission to Promote Peace...One School at a Time.