The strange world of Pakistan's Ulema

As the world comes to terms with the attempted murder of a Swati schoolgirl in Pakistan in the name of Islam, it is worth taking a closer look at some of the characters who speak out in the name of Islam in that country. One who has been in the news recently is Maulana Tahir Ashrafi, head of something called the Pakistan Ulema and Mashaikh Council.
In particular, there is the strange story of a reception at the German Embassy in Islamabad on 5 October. After leaving the event at 11pm, he seems to have disappeared. According to one report he was found by police on the outskirts of Islamabad a few hours later, asleep on the back seat of his car. A clearly intoxicated Ashrafi later told the police he had been kidnapped and injected with alcohol or some kind of poison. Some reports said three men from Waziristan had been questioned by police, although no charges have followed.

Maulana Tahir Ashrafi

The case was widely reported in Pakistan where Ashrafi is known for his sympathies towards the Taliban and to Deobandi Islam in general. You can read one version of the story here. However, a rather different account of the story can be  found on the Let Us Build Pakistan website which strongly suggests Ashrafi was more sinner than sinned against. Whether any of this has anything to do with the fact that Ashrafi came out against Pakistan's notorious blasphemy laws in an article published on 3 September is anyone's guess. You decide.

The Limits to Justice, pt1

Extract from Guardian's coverage of yesterday's Military Commission at Guantanamo:
"The judge, army Colonel James Pohl, declared it was not relevant in a discussion of whether the defendants had the right to voluntarily skip court sessions, according to Reuters.
Mohammed's lawyer, air force Captain Michael Schwartz, said forcibly removing them from their cells and hauling them into court would subject them to physical and emotional strain reminiscent of their time in CIA custody.
"We have to talk about torture," Schwartz said.
"No we don't," the judge replied.
"I think we do," Schwartz said.
"I'm telling you I don't think that's relevant to this issue. That's the end of that," Pohl snapped.
When Schwartz persisted, Pohl said angrily: "Are you having trouble hearing me? Move on to something else!"

Military Commissions not about justice

Lawyers for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM), widely believed to have been the mastermind of the 9/11 bombings and now on trial at Guantanamo, have submitted a statement to the Military Commission now hearing pre-trial motions.
Just so we can all be absolutely clear that this military court is not about justice, this is what it states:
.       There is no statutory right to a speedy trial. 10 U.S.C. § 948b(c).
.       There is no right to remain silent and coerced confessions may be admitted. 10 U.S.C. § 948b(c).
.       There is no grand jury requirement or equivalent process (called an Article 32 hearing for courts-martial) for securing the right to indictment and presentment. 10 U.S.C. § 948b(c).
.       The freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures is limited as evidence obtained without a search warrant or other lawful authorization may be admitted. 10 U.S.C. § 949a.
.       The prohibition against ex post facto laws (i.e. the principle of illegality) does not apply. 10 U.S.C. § 950p.
.       Hearsay evidence is admissible.  10 U.S.C. § 949a(b)(3)(D).
.       The defense is not entitled to “equal” access to witnesses and evidence as per court-martial practice, but “reasonable” access. 10 U.S.C. § 949j.
.       The courts-martial pre-trial practice that allows for the dismissal of charges or other sentencing relief for unlawful pre-trial punishment is not included in the Military Commissions Act.
.       The trial judiciary is a component of the Executive Branch, and as such, does not function independently consistent with the requirements for federal trials under Article III of the Constitution.
David Nevin, defense counsel for KSM, added: “The Military Commissions are so far outside our established notions of justice and due process, the extraterritorial application of the individual liberties contained in the U.S. Constitution (such as the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th Amendments) remains an open question. We have to spend our time arguing with the government this week as to whether or not the Constitution even applies at all.”

Drones - the impossibility of accurate statistics

Whilst accepting that US drone strikes in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) - and elsewhere - regularly result in the deaths of non-combatants as 'collateral damage', I have always argued it is impossible to be precise about the numbers.
Reports in the last year from the Bureau for Investigative Journalism, Stanford Law School/NYU School of Law, the New America Foundation and the Long War Journal all rely on figures provided to local reporters by unnamed security officials - usually members of Pakistan's ISI, who refuse to divulge their identity. Outsiders cannot check these figures as they are banned from entering FATA. The US authorities, which claim that civilian deaths are minimal, fail to provide any evidence to back up their argument.
All the various analytical reports attempt to portray themselves as authoritative, although all use different methodologies.
The debate on drone casualties is rapidly becoming a classic debate on the use and abuse of official statistics. The latest contribution comes from the Human Rights Clinic at Columbia Law School, whose report, Counting Drone Strike Deaths has produced a further set of estimates - although it makes a point of stating the impossibility of accuracy: “Drone strike casualty estimates are substituting for hard facts and information about the drone program,” says Naureen Shah, Acting Director of the Human Rights Clinic at Columbia Law School, adding: “These are good faith efforts to count civilian deaths, but it’s the US government that owes the public an  accounting of who is being killed, especially as it continues expanding secret drone operations in new places around the world.”
Columbia Law School also recently published The Civilian Impact of Drones: Unexamined Costs, Unanswered Questions, which examines the way drones are rapidly becoming the centrepiece of US counter-terrorism strategy.

Mockup of bin Laden's compound located in NC

Mock up of bin Laden's Abbottabad compound

Cryptome has published an interesting item about the mock-up of Bin Laden's house in Abbottabad, used to train the Navy Seals involved in the operation that killed the al-Qaeda leader in April 2011. An anonymous contributor found satellite images of the site, which is located at the CIA training station at Harvey Point, North Carolina. Although the buildings are no longer there, a series of pictures shows how it was built and then obliterated after the operation.

Pak Taliban shoots another human rights campaigner

Malala Yousufzai

Lots of coverage yesterday about the shooting of Malala Yousufzai, the Swati schoolgirl from Mingora who took on the Taliban in her blog writings. Even Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani went to visit her in hospital. All very commendable, but contrast that to the near-total silence that greeted the killing of Farida Afridi in July (see my report here). She was shot dead in cold blood as she drove to Jamrud in Khyber Agency where she ran Sawera, a human rights organisation working in FATA to improve the rights of women in the region. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has a policy of killing human rights workers and for most of the time no-one - least of all Imran Khan - questions this.

ICRC adds to gloomy picture of Afghan future

And if the ICG report (below) was not bad enough, Reto Stocker, the outgoing head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) delegation in Kabul declared yesterday that for ordinary Afghans, the armed conflict in the country has taken a turn for the worse: "I am filled with concern as I leave this country. Since I arrived here in 2005, local armed groups have proliferated, civilians have been caught between not just one but multiple front lines, and it has become increasingly difficult for ordinary Afghans to obtain health care," said Mr Stocker. "People are not just suffering the effects of the armed conflict. Hardship arising from the economic situation, or from severe weather or natural disaster, has become more widespread, and hope for the future has been steadily declining."
The ICRC has devoted an entire issue of its International Review to Conflict in Afghanistan. The journal contains many interesting articles and will be followed by Part II in the near future. Keep an eye out for that edition, which contains a number of articles analysing the Taliban's Layha or Code of Conduct for fighters.

Afghanistan 'far from ready' for post-2014 survival

"Plagued by factionalism and corruption, Afghanistan is far from ready to assume responsibility for security when US and NATO forces withdraw in 2014. That makes the political challenge of organising a credible presidential election and transfer of power from President Karzai to a successor that year all the more daunting. A repeat of previous elections’ chaos and chicanery would trigger a constitutional crisis, lessening chances the present political dispensation can survive the transition. In the current environment, prospects for clean elections and a smooth transition are slim."
From the foreword of Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, a grim report from International Crisis Group published today.

Anti-drone event a success for Imran Khan

Imran Khan addressing the rally in Tank

In the end it was not as big as predicted - by all accounts no more than 10,000 people took part, with maybe 15,000 attending the final rally in Tank - nor did it reach its goal of Kotkai in South Waziristan, but Imran Khan's peace motorcade at the weekend undoubtedly drew world attention to the issue of drone strikes in Pakistan's badlands. More importantly, it drew attention to Khan himself, who will play on the moderate success of this event in Pakistan's upcoming elections.
Once again, Khan has shown that he is a canny politician who can call upon his growing number of supporters to organise a large public event. In a country where most people have little faith in their corrupt political leadership this will do him no harm.
Cynics will say that Khan knew all along that the motorcade would be turned back once it got to the border of South Waziristan and that a deal had been done in advance with the military. Not surprising really - if the event had been attacked Khan's political career would have been in ruins.
It is unlikely that the motorcade will change US policy on the use of drones, at least in the short term. Washington continues to believe that the benefits of drone strikes far outweigh the negative publicity generated by Codepink, Reprieve and the rest of the opposition.

Anti-drone protest joined by thousands

Supporters of the anti-drone protest give a welcome to Imran Khan in Mianwali

Imran Khan's anti-drone cavalcade is now well under way and has just reached Mianwali, his home town. His supporters say that the hundreds of vehicles that started off from Islamabad have now turned into a column that is 11km long. Still unclear whether or not the protesters, who include a number of Westerners, will be allowed to cross into the tribal territories.

Imran Khan's car on the cavalcade

The Pakistan Taliban has issued a statement saying it will not offer protection to the protesters and condemning Khan and all politicians in Pakistan.
If you want to follow the cavalcade on twitter, the hashtag is #PTIPeaceMarch. Khan is now in the process of pulling off a major political coup.
Update: Imran Khan tweeted as he reached DI Khan. Tail of the convoy more than half an hour behind him.

Gangnam Afghanistyle

Thanks to Bouhammer for pointing this one out. Enjoy.

Anti-drone march to be halted - political agent

Newspapers in Pakistan are reporting that the anti-drone march organised by Imran Khan's PTI party will not be allowed to cross into the tribal territories. The Express Tribune today quoted the political agent for South Waziristan saying that the security situation was not good enough to host such an event. It added that the march, due to start tomorrow (Sat) will be halted on the Chashma-DI Khan bridge close to the border with the tribal territories.
Yesterday in Islamabad Imran Khan held a press conference saying that Pakistan's president would be responsible if anything went wrong on the march. He was joined by a number of Westerners including Clive Stafford Smith of Reprieve, Tony Blair's sister-in-law - and convert to Islam - Lauren Booth and US peace campaigners including Ann Wright.

Lauren Booth speaking on Geo TV yesterday

Also in Islamabad yesterday was a Russian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who made a point of criticising American policy on drone strikes in Pakistan. "It is not right to violate the sovereignty and integrity of any state," said Mr Lavrov, who clearly has a very short memory.

Beheading of 17 in Helmand a fabrication?

It was widely reported at the end of August that the Taliban had beheaded 17 people, including two women, for dancing at a social event in the Roshanabad area of Helmand. The claim came from Daud Ahmadi of the office of the Governor of Helmand. At the time the Taliban denied any role, saying that in fact the incident involved a number of dancing boys and the consumption of alcohol. I wrote about it here.
Now the Taliban says that because it controls the area, it has conducted a detailed  investigation by a "qualified board of the Islamic Emirate" into the alleged incident.
"The board of Islamic Emirate, with help from the elders, youngsters and distinguished personalities, travelled on foot in the province’s Sangin, Musa Kala, Kajaki, Bughni, Baghran and Zamindawar regions, went from door to door and asked about related information and found that all the locals labelled the incident as fabrication and showed complete ignorance of such a happening."
The statement continues: "Two respected personalities of Roshanabad (Haji La’l Muhammad and Haji Muhammad Yar) said that they were taken by surprise after hearing about the incident and promptly carried out a joint investigation with the Mujahideen and locals in the initial days however nothing as such has transpired in the entire Sangin district and especially in Roshanabad area thus all the residents of the area are now certain that this claim is a blatant lie; nothing like this has taken place here; no one plays music here and neither has anyone been killed for such a thing; no one has seen the bodies of the dead and neither is there a single person aware of the incident."
Unless the governor's office in Helmand can produce photos of this incident or statements from bereaved relatives, I will go along with the view that it was a complete fabrication.

Pak Taliban attacks from Afghanistan rising

Interesting fact: there have been 17 large-scale, cross-border incursions of militants from Afghanistan to Pakistan - mostly Bajaur Agency - since February this year, according to Pakistani military commander Major General Ghulam Qamaran. He said there were 69 clashes last year in which 225 people died. Read more in an article by Zia ur Rehman in CTC Sentinel.

Peace activists denied access to Pakistan march

UK Peace activist and filmmaker Carol Grayson has been denied a visa to take part in a peace march in Pakistan aimed at highlighting the use of drones by the US military.
Grayson and another filmmaker, Yacine Helali, were invited to take part in the protest by Pakistani politician and former cricketer Imran Khan, whose Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) is organising the motorcade to South Waziristan later this week.
Grayson told the Lahore Times: “Officially I am being told no one can guarantee my security, but surely that is the case for Pakistanis also. They have to live with risks every day, they have no choice. I am told that Waziristan is a “no-go” area and that there is a lengthy process and many hurdles to overcome if you want to film a documentary as we do. I understand this would be under the eye of a government “minder”. This may put people off from being interviewed. I think that there are other reasons, the fact that PTI have invited me to participate in the peace march and are gaining significant support in the run up to the elections. That might be threatening for some who fear change in Pakistan. I have also nurtured strong contacts in the Tribal Areas; there is mutual respect and support for one another as human beings trying to make a difference. These people are my friends; I am not a native person. I have spent time trying to understand the politics of the region; it is not so easy to pull the wool over my eyes. I have a good idea what is happening on the ground and have excellent sources for information that continue to enlighten and educate me.”
In a statement the PTI "condemned this act of stopping the international media to come to Pakistan for a cause which is in the interest of Pakistan,”.
However, a delegation of 30 US activists and parents of US Army soldiers has arrived in Islamabad, where they plan to join the march and rally which Imran Khan has predicted will involve up to 100,000 people. Ann Wright, a retired US Army colonel and former US ambassador, is leading the delegation. Wright resigned from the US army at the beginning of the war against Iraq in 2003. She is now an anti-war activist and a member of CODEPINK.
On Sunday afternoon, Wright told a press conference in Islamabad that "We came from the US for this historic march against drone attacks. We also went to the places in US from where the drones are operated and we registered our protest. We are also protesting US war policies and we are telling you that American people are also against these attacks," she said.

Ann Wright and Imran Khan speak at a press conference in Islamabad

She added that the US is violating the sovereignty of Pakistan by carrying out drone strikes. "The U.S. president has a hit list on his desk and he looks at it every day to know who will be killed in Pakistan. This is criminal... We believe that travel warning is issued because the US government does not want us to see what they are doing. We believe the President of the US is killing innocent people in Pakistan that is wrong... We as Americans stand up against our government and you [have to] stand up against yours," Wright said.
There are still some doubts about whether or not the march will take place. The Pakistan Taliban, which initially opposed the march, now says it will protect it. But military commanders and politicians are jittery and may yet try to stop it.
Starting from Islamabad, the march is due to pass through Balkasar, Talagang and Mianwali, reaching DI Khan on 6 October. On 7 October the participants will gather in Tank and then will move towards South Waziristan where a public meeting will be held at Kot Kai. According to Imran Khan, the Mahsud, Burki and Bhittani tribes of Waziristan have agreed to provide security to the participants of the rally.