NGOs and attitudes to the Taliban

Ashley Jackson of the Humanitarian Policy Group and Antonio Giustozzi from King's College London have produced an invaluable discussion paper on the Taliban's attitude to NGOs.
Talking to the Other Side: Humanitarian engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan looks in particular at Faryab and Kandahar provinces, noting that whilst at a leadership level there are clear attitudes towards foreign NGOs, at a local level commanders exert considerable discretion and flexibility.
Although senior and provincial Taliban leaders state that where an aid agency obtains its funding does not influence access, in practice many local commanders are suspicious of projects funded by ISAF troop-contributing countries. They were also hostile towards Western notions of women's rights. "In general, but particularly pronounced at local level, there is deep and prevalent hostility towards aid organisations and a general difficulty in distinguishing between different actors (NGOs, UN agencies, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), for-profit contractors, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and so on)."
This is an extremely useful report that highlights the dilemmas facing local Afghan staff who may recognise the need to speak to Taliban power brokers, but are prevented from doing so by a culture of 'don't ask, don't tell', within NGOs. That in turn increases the risk that local staff will be seen as 'spies' working for foreigners.

Momentous events in South Waziristan.

What was behind the decision of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen of South Waziristan to issue an ultimatum to 40,000 displaced Mahsud tribespeople to leave Wana by 5th December?
The decision - later extended to 15 December - was taken at a jirga held in Rustam Bazaar in Wana, attended by elders from all nine subtribes of the Ahmadzai Wazirs. Overseeing the jirga was Maulvi Nazir, the pro-government militia commander who, only days before, had been injured in a targeted suicide attack in the same town that killed eight of his companions.

As far as the jirga was concerned, the attackers of Maulvi Nazir were from the Mahsud tribe and they were therefore entitled to tell them to leave. There is a long history of bitterness and rivalry between the two tribes, and this recent incident has been used by political officials to encourage the Ahmadzai Wazirs to act against the Mahsuds.
The Mahsuds, in turn, form the backbone of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Pakistani Army action aimed at the TTP in South Waziristan is the reason there are so many Mahsuds living temporarily in Wana. Many of their homes have been destroyed or are in areas that are too dangerous for occupation.
Some sources say that the suicide attacker tasked with killing Maulvi Nazir was despatched by Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP. The attack was an attempted revenge for the killing of Wali Muhammad on July this year. Wali Muhammad was a close associate of Hakimullah and had only returned to South Waziristan recently, having been expelled by Maulvi Nazir in the past. (more on the background to this feud can be found here).
In the past the Ahmedzai Wazirs have usually attempted to settle their differences with the Mahsuds, not least because they have always needed their agreement to get access to DI Khan and other border areas. The Mahsuds control access to important strategic roads - such as that running from Tank-Jandola-Wana - and have been able to exert a stranglehold on the Wazirs in the past.
However, that era may now have come to an end with the opening of a new road on 18 June this year. Built by the Pakistani Army with American money, the 105-km Kaur-Gomal-Tanai-Wana road means that the Wazirs no longer need permission from the Mahsuds to connect with the rest of the country (more on this here).
Tribal politics in FATA are complex and this may not be the end of the matter. Already, Pakistani officials are talking about putting pressure on the Utmankhel Wazirs in North Waziristan to expel Mahsud tribesmen from Miramshah.
All of these events may be the reason that rumours are growing of a split within the leadership of the TTP. Hakimullah's policy of war against the Pakistani state appears now to come with a price tag that is too high for many of his fellow tribesmen to bear. No wonder that Waliur Rahman, touted as someone who can cut a deal with the military and also turn TTP guns towards Afghanistan, is being spoken about as a future leader of the organisation.

Another senior al-Qaeda leader killed in Pakistan

The death of Sheikh Khalid Abdul Rahman al-Hussainan - aka Abu Zaid al-Kuwaiti - in a CIA drone strike in Pakistan's tribal areas yesterday is a serious blow to al-Qaeda. According to some accounts, the Kuwaiti cleric, part of a recent trend of 'internet imams',  was a likely successor to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and played an important role as religious advisor to the organisation and member of al-Qaeda's religious committee.

Sheikh Khalid Abdul Rahman al-Hussainan

He was well known for his lectures and videos, many of which were put out by the As-Shahab organisation. He was also the last known Arab with a serious religious  background living in Pakistan's tribal territories.
According to reports 46-year-old al-Hussainan was killed whilst taking his early morning meal. A statement on an al-Qaeda-linked web forum, posted on Friday, stated: "“We celebrate to you the news of the martyrdom of the working scholar Shaykh Khalid al-Hussainan (Abu Zaid al-Kuwaiti) while eating his suhoor (dawn time) meal, and we ask Allah to accept him in paradise."
More detail on his background can be found in an interview published earlier this year by Flashpoint Partners.
The death of al-Hussainan comes in the wake of the killings of at least three contenders for the leadership role in al-Qaeda since the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Ilyas Kashmiri, Atiyah Abd-al Rahman and Ayman al-Awlaki have all been killed in drone strikes, leaving a serious gap in the top leadership of the organisation.

End of Hakimullah's bloodthirsty reign?

Waliur Rahman, TTP leader in waiting?

Reuters is reporting an imminent change of leadership in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, saying its bloodthirsty - and by some accounts, heroin-addicted - leader Hakimullah Mahsud will soon be replaced by his rival and long-time adversary Waliur Rahman. This blog reported the threat to Mahsud's leadership three weeks ago - see Latest FATA Security Report below, on 13 November.
Reuters adds that the change will signal a new emphasis on actions in Afghanistan, rather than against the Pakistani state. It has been clear for some time that the TTP's strategy of killing Pakistani soldiers and police and targeting civilians has been winning it no friends. It was a strategy heavily influenced by al-Qaeda ideologues, who also provided funding to the organisation. Presumably these sources have now dried up, or perhaps Wali has done a deal with the ISI?
Update: Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal argues strongly that reports of a split between Rahman and Mahsud are much exaggerated. "Dare I say that Pakistani officials are using Reuters and other news agencies as part of a not-so-sophisticated information operation designed to split the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan's top leadership? It is high time that news organizations see through this patently obvious nonsense," he says. He may be right, but there are other sources on the fading star of Hakimullah. One to watch.

Looking into post-2014 Afghanistan

The Congressional Research Service has come up with an informative and timely report on the functioning of the Afghan state, particularly in the context of likely events following Western military withdrawal in 2014.
Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance by Kenneth Katzman doesn't attempt to set out solutions, but gives a good overview of the stresslines that are likely to become apparent in the next couple of years.
No matter who wins the 2014 Presidential elections, there is a widespread belief that governance will founder, says Katzman, and if it does so, then "The informal power structure consisting of regional and ethnic leaders—who have always been at least as significant a factor in governance as the formal power structure—is expected to assert itself".

Splits develop within the Taliban leadership

Anand Gopal, who is Bernard L Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation, has written an interesting article on splits within the Afghan Taliban. Based largely on interviews with Taliban figures in the UAE and with others interviewed via telephone or skype calls in Pakistan, the article, published by the Combating Terrorism Center suggests that the Taliban leadership is fracturing: "Certain commanders have been dismissed from the insurgents’ top brass, spats have erupted between leading figures, and a growing number of field commanders are contravening the orders of their superiors. In the process, a political struggle between blocs favoring and opposing talks with the United States has emerged."
Gopal says there are three reasons for the recent disagreements: the arrest and detention of Mullah Barodar by the Pakistanis; the US military strategy of killing mid-level Taliban leaders; and the initiation of peace talks by Washington.

Massive leak of German docs on Afghanistan

More than 5,000 pages of German Bundeswehr 'Briefings to Parliament' discussing that country's military involvement in Afghanistan and dating from 2005-2012 have been leaked to the DerWesten blog portal. The documents, some of which are not very clear, are security-coded 'for official use only, the lowest of four levels of security.
The blog says that it has asked the Bundeswehr to publish the documents, but has been turned down. It adds that there is nothing in the documents that would threaten German national security. However, the documents do contain detailed charts that illustrate the fact that German troops in Afghanistan are involved in combat operations far more than is generally reported. DerWesten has asked its readers to help review the documents and point out those that are most significant.

Help build a school for 900 girls

Sometimes projects come along that really need support. A group of campaigners in Badakhshan is attempting to raise $500,000 by next April to build a school for 900 girls. The school has been in existence for 10 years, but is still housed in tents first distributed in 2001.
Supported by Afghan MP and Presidential candidate Fawzia Koofi, it deserves success. Fawzia writes: Educating women is a human rights issue. But it’s much more than that. It is the means through which we can stabilize Afghanistan. I know this better than anyone. I was one of 19 children, born to a father with 7 wives. My mother, his second wife, was illiterate. None of the girls in my family ever went to school.
"Until - thanks to the bravery and support of my mother - I became the first female in my family to get an education. Today I am a member of the Afghan parliament and a leading candidate in next year’s presidential elections. Education changed my life and enabled me to fight for the rights of others.
"And now I am asking for your help in changing other girl’s lives. Please help us to educate a schoolgirl today and who knows what she will become tomorrow. She could be the next world leader or Nobel Prize winner. And if does –that will be down to you."

Latest FATA security report

The Third Quarter Security report from the FATA Research Centre shows that 878 people died in this region of Pakistan from July to September, with another 391 injured.
Most of those killed - 342 - died in 48 clashes between the security forces and militants - to which should be added another 209 militants killed in clashes with the Army in Bajaur Agency, whilst another 71 people died in bomb blasts. US drone attacks killed 113 people, whilst landmines and IEDs killed another 27 people.
Overall, violent incidents increased in FATA during Q3. A breakdown of the casualties suggests that of the total of 1,269 people killed or injured, 625 were militants, 479 were civilians, 126 were security personnel and 39 were pro-government militia. Total casualties were up from 1010 in Q2, with the majority of incidents and casualties taking place in Khyber, Orakzai, Bajaur and North Waziristan Agencies.
The report points out some interesting developments in relation to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In Khyber, for example, the murder of prominent militant Tariq Afridi has led to increased tensions with the TTP: "After the killing of Tariq Afridi, there is confusion among different ranks of TTP militants; and leaders have started to feel threatened for their lives. The situation remains unstable and must be closely observed as critical decisions are being made amongst the top tier of militants in the region."
The report notes that the TTP is pressurising the local tribes in North Waziristan to move to Afghanistan if the area becomes the subject of a Pakistan Army offensive. However, there is resistance, particularly from the Mahsud tribe that makes up much of the TTP foot soldiers.
The report also notes the rising importance of Wali ur Rahman, ostensibly second in command of the TTP, but now in the ascendancy compared to titular leader Hakimullah Mahsud: "Hakimullah is believed to be on drugs these days, he is considered mentally weak, and is on constant run from military. Hakimullah has also reportedly issued orders for killing Tariq Afridi and as a result has lost his support from high profile Taliban commanders. On the other hand, his counterpart Wali Rehman is considered comparatively cool minded, realist and rational."

cia.boss@gmail.com pt 2.

From AP today: "Petraeus and Broadwell apparently used a trick, known to terrorists and teenagers alike, to conceal their email traffic, one of the law enforcement officials said.
Rather than transmitting emails to the other's inbox, they composed at least some messages and instead of transmitting them, left them in a draft folder or in an electronic "dropbox," the official said. Then the other person could log onto the same account and read the draft emails there. This avoids creating an email trail that is easier to trace."
That was pretty pathetic - not to mention obvious - wasn't it? Didn't they know that the server keeps a log of which computers access the email account? Stick to soldiering, General.

cia.boss@gmail.com

Amazing fact: According to the Wall Street Journal, David Petraeus' affair with Paula Broadwell came to light after the FBI conducted a probe into the use of the CIA director's gmail account. Yes, his gmail account. Petraeus appears not to have understood the most basic issues of online security. Never mind the betrayal of his wife, he should have been sacked for incompetence.

Restored Mausoleum of Timur Shah opens in Kabul

The Mausoleum of Timur Shah, badly damaged during Afghanistan's civil war in the 1990s, has been reopened by President Karzai and the Agha Khan. Built in 1817, the octagonal red brick building is in the style of the early Moghul and Afghan kings of Delhi. 

The interior of the simple building, which is surrounded by a small park, contains a plain, undecorated sarcophagus. The tomb itself lies in the vaults beneath the building, alongside that of the ill-fated Shah Shujah, Timur's son, who was murdered outside the Bala Hissar citadel in 1842. 

Born in 1746, Timur Shah served as governor of Herat before facing down a military challenge to the throne from his elder brother, and then moving his capital from Kandahar  to Kabul. After his death in 1793 his son Zaman Shah buried him in a garden on the banks of the Kabul River, but it was not until 1817 that construction of the Mausoleum began. 

His court was highly influenced by Persia and he himself was reliant on the infamous Qizilbash bodyguards for his personal protection.

During the course of conservation work, negotiations took place for the relocation of the 200 or more informal traders who had encroached on what had been the garden around the Mausoleum. At one point it was thought that the traders could be incorporated into a new development on land adjoining the garden, but these plans were rejected and the traders were removed in 2005. Since then, a perimeter wall has been constructed to protect the site, which has been planted with mulberry trees – matching those seen in historic photographs (see below) – and laid out with paths.
Since its restoration, the central space of the Mausoleum has been used for lectures, seminars and exhibitions, and discussions are under way with the relevant authorities for the space and reclaimed garden to be used for cultural events.
Below is another picture of the Mausoleum, one of the earliest photographs taken in Afghanistan. The photo was taken by  John Burke in 1879-80.

In 1878 John Burke accompanied the British forces deployed in the Second Afghan War (1878-80), despite being rejected for the role of official photographer. He financed his trip by advance sales of his photographs "illustrating the advance from Attock to Jellalabad". Burke's two-year Afghan expedition produced an important visual document of the region.
Coming to India as apothecary with the Royal Engineers, Burke turned professional photographer, in partnership at first with William Baker. Travelling widely in India, they were the main rivals to the better-known Bourne and Shepherd. However, Burke is best known as the first significant photographer of Afghanistan and its people.(Pic courtesty of the British Museum).

US military drone strikes in Afghanistan

According to Wired's DangerRoom blog the US military has launched 333 drone strikes so far this year in Afghanistan, the highest total ever. It's also about the same number of drone strikes as the CIA has launched in neighbouring Pakistan over the last eight years.
For comparison, US drone strikes in Afghanistan totalled 255 in 2009, 278 in 2010 and 294 in 2011.
The US military has 61 Predator and Reaper combat air patrols in Afghanistan, each with three or four remotely-piloted vehicles. In comparison, the CIA is believed to operate a total of 30-35 drones and is looking to purchase another 10.

Dumb comment of the month

According to the Washington Post:
             "U.S. military and intelligence officials said that Mullah Fazlullah, the mastermind of the attack on 15-year-old Malala Yousafzai, operates out a region adjoining Pakistan where several hundred US troops are stationed. But they said finding Fazlullah is not a priority because he is not affiliated with al-Qaeda or with insurgents targeting US and Afghan interests.
              “Our guys just aren’t tracking him,” a senior Special Operations official said. “He is viewed as an ‘other-side-of-the-border’ problem.” When asked if Fazlullah was a priority, a senior intelligence official responded, “Not with so many other potential targets” in Afghanistan."
Exactly the same way as the Haqqani Network is viewed in Pakistan, as just one of those 'other-side-of-the-border' problems.

Haqqanis' suicide trainer designated by State Dept

Here's the link to the US State Department's designation of Qari Zakir as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order (E.O.) 13224. The Haqqani Network itself was designated in September.
As chief of suicide operations for the Haqqani Network, Zakir has been responsible for some terrible atrocities, listed in the designation, which allows the US to freeze any assets of his it finds under its control.
Both Zakir and the Haqqani Network itself were also designated by the UN 1988 Sanctions Committee yesterday, which requires all UN member states to implement an assets freeze, a travel ban, and an arms embargo against them.