Circling the Lion's Den

Pakistan aiding Taliban - can it be true?

2012-02-01T12:56:00.000Z

The news that a secret NATO report, based on the interrogations of thousands of Taliban prisoners, claims that Pakistan's intelligence services are helping the Afghan Taliban is hardly surprising, although its other main conclusion - that the Taliban are set to retake control over the country - may be more controversial.
The classified report, drawn up by the US military at Bagram Airbase for top NATO officials in January, notes: "Pakistan's manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues unabatedly". It says that Pakistan is aware of the locations of senior Taliban leaders: "Senior Taliban representatives, such as Nasiruddin Haqqani, maintain residences in the immediate vicinity of ISI headquarters in Islamabad". It adds: "Senior Taliban leaders meet regularly with ISI personnel, who advise on strategy and relay any pertinent concerns of the government of Pakistan."
It also quotes a senior al-Qaeda detainee as saying: "Pakistan knows everything. They control everything. I can't piss on a tree in Kunar without them watching." He adds: "The Taliban are not Islam. The Taliban are Islamabad."
In its damning conclusion the report says that interest in the Taliban has been growing, even amongst members of the Afghan government, also adding that "Afghan civilians frequently prefer Taliban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of government corruption."
The Taliban tactic is to reduce attacks in some areas and then initiate a comprehensive hearts-and-minds campaign. In areas were ISAF forces have withdrawn, Taliban influence has increased, often with little resistance from government forces, who have often sold weapons to the insurgents.
The leaking of the report to the BBC and The Times appears to have been designed to embarass Pakistan, whose foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, is currently in Kabul for talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
The issue of whether or not the Taliban is growing in popularity is open to question. A report published by the Asia Foundation in November, Afghanistan in 2011: A survey of the Afghan People, found that support for the Taliban among Afghans has steadily declined in recent years. It found that 82 per cent of those surveyed back reconciliation and reintegration efforts with insurgent groups. The number of people who said they sympathized with the aims of the Taliban had dropped to 29 per cent compared to 40 per cent in 2010 and 56 per cent in 2009.
However, a lack of security was identified as the biggest problem in the country by 38 per cent of those polled, followed by unemployment and corruption. Seventy-one per cent of respondents said they feared travelling from one part of the country to another. Most of these problems can easily be placed at the door of the Karzai government and the Taliban can play upon its promises to restore order in the country. The survey was conducted among 6,348 adults in July 2010 in all of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, excluding some dangerous areas.

Slight fall in US Afghan combat casualties in 2011

2012-02-01T12:01:00.001Z

The latest US Congressional Research Service report on military and civilian casualties in Afghanistan shows that from 7 October 2001 until 18 Jan 2012 a total of 1,864 American warfighters had been killed. Of these, 1,485 had been killed as a result of hostile actions, whilst another 379 died as a result of non-hostile actions. Non-hostile casualties are defined as casualties that are not directly attributable to hostile action or terrorist activity, such as those due to the elements, self-inflicted wounds or combat fatigue.
Total US deaths in 2011 fell by almost a fifth compared to the previous year, although the numbers of wounded in action (WIA) fell only very slightly, to 5,159. The numbers of WIA more than doubled in 2010 compared to the previous year, a fact explained by the US troop surge.
A more detailed breakdown of the figures prepared by the Defense Manpower Data Center shows that of the non-hostile deaths, 232 were due to accidents, 41 to illness, 11 due to homicide, 74 were self-inflicted, with the rest undetermined or pending. Most of those who died as a result of hostile action were serving in the army or Marines.
Figures for other countries in the Coalition show that there have been a total of 974 deaths, of which 395 were British, 158 Canadian, 78 from France, 52 from Germany and 44 from Italy. Every Coalition country has lost at least one soldier KIA.
The number of Afghan civilians, police and military killed is less clear. Figures for civilians only began to be collected in 2007. Some figures come from the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission and Afghan Rights Monitor, whilst the CRS report now derives casualty figures of Afghan soldiers and police from the press accounts of the Reuters “Factbox: Security Developments in Afghanistan” series, the Pajhwok Afghan News agency, Daily Outlook Afghanistan from Kabul, and the AfPak Channel Daily Brief, most of which derive their figures from NATO or local Afghan officials.
Between January and November 2011, according to these figures, 2,262 Afghan civilians were killed and 3,032 were injured. In the same period 239 members of the Afghan National Army were killed (239 wounded) and 522 police (483 wounded). All these figures were lower than for the previous two years at least.

Pak Taliban murders tribal journalist

2012-01-18T10:49:00.001Z

In yet another act of barbarity, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan yesterday murdered the former president of the Mohmand Agency Press Club, Mukarram Khan Atif.
The senior reporter was shot three times in the head by two armed men whilst offering evening prayers in a mosque in Karkay village in the Shabqadar area of Charsadda, close to his residence. The Imam leading prayers was also injured in the attack. Mukarram had relocated to Charsadda from Mohmand recently after receiving threats from Taliban militants.
During a 15-year career he had worked for several media organisations, but was most recently employed as a correspondent for Pakistan's Dunya TV channel and as a stringer for Voice of America's Pashto-language Deewa Radio.
In a telephone call to journalists in Peshawar, TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan claimed responsibility for the murder. “We have been warning him to stop his propaganda against us in the foreign media. He did not include our version in his stories,” adding that several more journalists were on their hit list. It appears that the main reason he was killed was for working for an American-financed news organisation.
Atif's murder was strongly condemned by tribal journalists and by the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists. Tribal Union of Journalists president, Safdar Hayat Dawar, announced three days of mourning and a sit-in outside the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Governor's office in Peshawar. Information minister Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan and President Zardari also condemned the killing.
Pakistan is one of the most dangerous places in the world to operate as a journalist. According to Reporters without Borders, 10 journalists were killed last year as a result of their work. The website of the Tribal Union of Journalists lists ten of its members who have been killed since 2005.

TTP leader Hakimullah reported dead - again

2012-01-16T10:30:00.002Z

For at least the third time Pakistani sources are reporting that TTP leader Hakimullah Mahsud has been killed in a drone strike. The sources say he was one of six passengers in a vehicle that was destroyed in a CIA drone attack on 12 January, close to the village of Nawa Adda in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan. Initially it was reported that the car's occupants were from Turkmenistan, but later reports placed Hakimullah amongst the dead.
If the story is true it is likely that the feared TTP leader was given up by other militants in the region. Over recent months the TTP has split into numerous factions over the issue of whether or not to continue attacks on Pakistan's army, police and on civilians. Hakimullah and his increasingly isolated group - under the influence of al-Qaeda - refused to stop such attacks, while many other factions, including that of his rival, Waliur Rahman from South Waziristan, were engaged in negotiations with the Army.
Last week, in a move that is likely to have further isolated Hakimullah and his supporters, his men murdered more than 20 members of the Frontier Constabulary in cold blood. They also exploded a bomb in a market place, killing and injuring large numbers of men, women and children.
Last night the TTP's official spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan denied that the TTP leader was dead, although less confidently than in the past: "There is no truth in reports about his death. However, he is a human being and can die any time. He is a holy warrior and we will wish him martyrdom.We will continue jihad if Hakimullah is alive or dead. There are so many lions in this jungle and one lion will replace another one to continue this noble mission.”

Baloch rebels ambush and kill 14 FC men

2012-01-13T14:04:00.003Z

Some of the hundreds of missing people in Balochistan

On Wednesday it was the turn of Balochistan nationalist fighters to have a go at Pakistan's Frontier Constabulary, which has lost large numbers of men in FATA in recent weeks. In a spectacular ambush in the Nawanu area of Balochistan close to the border with Iran, irregulars thought to be from the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Front killed 14 FC personnel, including their two officers.
The FC men, in two vehicles, were engaged in a mine-sweeping operation when they came under attack from rockets and heavy machine guns. The BLA 'samarchars' (freedom fighters) escaped with arms and ammunition from the dead soldiers.
The attack comes against a background of unexplained killings of prominent Balochis and continuing detention of hundreds of opponents of Pakistani rule of the province. According to the International Voice for Baloch Missing Persons, there have been more than 200 extra-judicial killings of missing persons in Balochistan since July 2010. Bodies turn up regularly on the sides of roads, many of them with broken limbs, knife or drill wounds and usually a gunshot wound to the head. Pakistani politicians regularly promise improvements in human rights and increased autonomy in the region, but the Army and intelligence agencies have their own agenda.

Coup looks increasingly likely in Pakistan

2012-01-12T13:07:00.001Z

A military coup in Pakistan looks increasingly likely after President Zardari left the country for a "medical check-up" in Dubai today, for the second time in a month.
At Army HQ in Rawalpindi, army chief General Kayani met with his top commanders to discuss the widening rift between the armed forces and the civilian government. While Kayani is thought to be reluctant to mount a coup, he may be happy to allow the Supreme Court to dismiss the government for failing to investigate a corruption case levelled against the President. The deadline on that matter is Monday.

Pak generals can't decide coup plan

2012-01-11T19:32:00.000Z

Will they or won't they? It looks like the Pakistan Army and ISI can't quite make up their minds whether or not to overthrow the government of President Asif Ali Zardari. Yesterday prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani sacked the defence secretary - a civil servant - for "gross misconduct and illegal action" and replaced him with a bureaucrat closer to the PPP.
The sacked secretary, army loyalist Retired Lt. Gen. Naeem Khalid Lodhi, is said to have forwarded documents to the Supreme Court on behalf of army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and ISI chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha. These concerned the so-called Memogate scandal in which Gilani is alleged to have sent a memo that requested support from the Americans against a possible coup attempt by the Pakistan military.
Lodhi has been replaced by Cabinet Secretary Narghis Sethi, the first woman to hold such an appointment, which is usually given to a retired military figure.
The statements submitted to the court by the generals argued that the memo in question was part of a conspiracy against the Army.
Gilani added to the pressure on the Army by giving an interview to a Chinese newspaper which said that Kayani and Pasha had violated the constitution by sending documents directly to the court, without going via the government. This in turn provoked a furious reaction from the General Staff who issued a statement saying that Gilani's allegation was "very serious". It didn't help that Kayani was on an official visit to China when Gilani gave his interview.
The Army statement went on to say: "There can be no allegation more serious than what the Honourable Prime Minister has leveled against COAS and DG ISI and has unfortunately charged the officers for violation of the Constitution of the Country. This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the Country."
As if things were not bad enough, the Supreme Court has also threatened to dismiss Gilani's government if he refuses to open a corruption case against President Zardari by next Monday.
The future of the government is clearly hanging by a thread, with both the Army and the Supreme Court unsure that a coup would be popular. However, nothing can be ruled out.
If a coup does take place, what's the odds that Imran Khan will be called on to give the generals a human face?

TTP murders another ten FC soldiers

2012-01-09T14:38:00.000Z

The bodies of another ten murdered members of Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Constabulary have been recovered from the Dabori area of Upper Orakzai Agency. The soldiers were captured in a raid by militants on a checkpoint in the region on 22 December, when 13 other FC soldiers were killed.

This is the second mass killing of FC personnel in a week. Last week the bodies of 15 FC soldiers were found in North Waziristan, near the border with Afghanistan. Those killings were claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, as were the most recent killings.

The bodies of the ten FC men were exchanged for ten bodies of TTP fighters killed by the army in Khyber several weeks ago.

The Pakistan Army seems to be impotent in the face of continuing humiliations inflicted on it by the TTP militants and their supporters. Despite months of helicopter attacks, artillery bombardments and bombing raids on Upper Orakzai, the region remains firmly under the control of militants.

Afghanistan coverage in US papers falls in 2011

2012-01-07T11:54:00.000Z

Coverage of Afghanistan in American newspapers fell in 2011 compared to the previous year, according to a study from the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
Although coverage of international issues jumped by more than a third - due mainly to events connected to the Arab Spring - the percentage of articles written about Afghanistan fell from four per cent in 2010 to 1.9 per cent in 2011. Afghanistan fell from the fourth most covered issue to the sixth.
However, the biggest breaking news story of the year in the US was the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. That week, the story filled 69 per cent of all news stories studied in newspapers and online and time on television and radio news, making it the biggest weekly story for four years.
In terms of Blogs and Twitter, Afghanistan did not feature at all in the top ten stories, which were dominated by the Economy and Apple news on blogs and news about Google and Twitter itself, on Twitter. The killing of bin Laden featued at the tenth biggest story on blogs, but did not feature on Twitter to any great degree.
The best international news coverage was offered by PBS Newshour, which offered a third more coverage than the media overall.

More on the murder of 15 FC jawans by TTP

2012-01-06T17:42:00.001Z

I have many good friends amongst Pakistan's journalist community. People who have taken great risks to report the news in a country where the ISI in particular considers it a grave insult to report anything that criticises their activities. Therefore I cannot blame working journalists for the Pakistan media's shocking response to the murder of 15 Frontier Constabulary jawans by the TTP two days ago (see below).

To call the response muted would be a gross understatement. The deaths - each of the murdered men had dozens of bullet holes in his body and many had been mutilated - have been almost completely ignored by the main media in Pakistan. Most papers reported the story way down the page and by the day following the gruesome event, it was not even being mentioned by the major satellite news channels.

There have been no rallies condemning the killings, no statements from the major political parties and a deafening silence from the military itself.

This despite the fact that the TTP said these killings were 'revenge' for an army operation in Khyber, in which a prominent TTP commander and some of his men were killed. (A translation of their statement, published by Flashpoint Partners, can be found here.) “We will soon take revenge for other operations too", said TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Khan, effectively taunting the Pakistan Army. Does he not know that it is forbidden in Islam to kill prisoners? That mutilation is a crime against both his religion and against humanity?

I could only find one newspaper - the Express Tribune - that had even printed the names of the dead men. For the record, they were: Lance Naik Nisar Gul, Ali Ameer Naib Subaidar, Shakeel Gul, Rajid Khan, Muhammad Arif, Khan Talab, Ajeem Khan, Amjid Ali, Tayyab, Riwayat, Uzair Ali, Sabit Khan, Shafiur Rehman, Bacha Khan and Bawar Khan. Eleven of the deceased men belonged to the Mallagori area of Khyber Agency while three were from Shabqadar and one from DI Khan. Lions led by donkeys, as someone once said.

Murders will not stop TTP-ISI deal

2012-01-05T13:21:00.000Z

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan announced today that it has slaughtered all 15 members of the Frontier Constabulary that it captured from Mullazai Fort in Tank district, South Waziristan on 23 December. It had originally demanded the release of prisoners held by the Army in exchange for the soldiers. The bodies were dumped somewhere in North Waziristan, close to the border with Afghanistan.
You might have thought that such a monstrous crime would have some kind of impact on relations between the TTP and the military. After all, Pakistan and the US are still not on good terms after US forces accidentally killed 24 members of the Frontier Corps in a mix-up close to the border last month.
However, you would be wrong. In the schizophrenic world that is Pakistan, a secret dialogue between the TTP and the ISI is still in full swing and has entered a "decisive phase", according to reports.
"We have drawn the broader outlines for a possible accord. And what we're now working on are minor details," an intelligence official said.
"These are crucial times ...we have to be extremely careful. A slight miscalculation can harm us in a big way," the official told The Express Tribune. Presumably the murder of 15 soldiers is not enough to constitute "a slight miscalculation".
Clearly this was just a bit of 'tidying up' by the TTP. No need to let it get in the way of a deal.

Pak Taliban factions unite under pressure

2012-01-03T14:32:00.000Z

According to reports coming from Pakistan, a new organisation called the Shura-e-Murakbah, made up of the remnants of what was once the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has been created in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
The factions include those TTP remnants led by Hakimullah Mahsud, the South Waziristan faction of the same organisation led by Waliur Rehman Mahsud, the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group, Mullah Nazir's group and the Haqqani Network.
Its five members, according to Dawn newspaper, are Maulvi Azmatullah (representing the Waliur Rehman faction), Maulvi Noor Saeed (Taliban commander in Barwan representing Hakimullah), Maulvi Saeedullah (Haqqani Network), Maulvi Sadar Hayat (Hafiz Gul Bahadar) and Hafeez Amir Hamza (Mullah Nazir Group).
The Shura-e-Murakbah, besides dedicating itself to fighting the US-led forces in Afghanistan, has also promised to end kidnappings and other criminal activities in tribal areas, stating: “All Mujahideen, local and foreigners, are informed that they should desist from killing and kidnapping for ransom innocent people and cooperate with this committee in curbing crimes. If any Mujahid is found involved in unjustified killings, crimes and other illegal activities he will be answerable to Shura-i-Murakbah and will be punished in accordance with the Shariah law,” a statement issued on Monday by the new organisation says. It is a promise that is unlikely to be honoured for very long if past history is any guide.
It is well-known that Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman loathe each other and that other factions are also deeply divided. This meeting and alleged agreement looks more like a last-ditch effort to prevent serious fighting breaking out amongst the various factions.
According to a report in the Long War Journal by Bill Roggio, the deal was brokered by al-Qaeda leader Abu Yahya al Libi, along with Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Mansour from Eastern Afghanistan. Mullah Muhammad Omar is said to have played an important role in pressuring the factions to come to an agreement - although in the past his pleas have fallen on deaf ears - most notably, when Hakimullah went ahead with the killing of Colonel Imam, despite pleas from Mullah Omar and other jihadi leaders.
Despite press reports to the contrary, the new shura has not agreed to stop attacking the Pakistani armed forces. A spokesman for the shura said it would target "Americans and their allies in Pakistan, as well as Afghanistan."
The timing of the formation of this new organisation is clearly significant and reflects in part the growing dissatisfaction amongst many tribal fighters with Hakimullah Mahsud's leadership of the TTP. He is increasingly isolated and detested for his cruelty and poor leadership.
However, it is also significant that its formation was announced just as the Afghan Taliban have reached a critical juncture in their discussions with the Karzai government. It cannot be a coincidence that the Afghan Taliban announced this week the opening of a representative office in Qatar.
Three points should be drawn from this news: first, that al-Qaeda is still an important player - and, more importantly, financier - of the various jihadi factions in Pakistan. That is why they are at the table; second, support by Mullah Omar for this unification move may have more to do with unfolding events in Afghanistan than with a concern for uniting the notoriously unruly Pashtun tribes in Pakistan; and third, don't put any money on this agreement holding up for any length of time.
One final point: Murakbah is an Islamic term that is usually used within the Sufi community. It is an Arabic word which means "to watch over", "to take care of", or "to keep an eye on". In the Sufi context it implies that with meditation, a person watches over or takes care of his spiritual heart (or soul), and acquires knowledge about it, its surroundings, and its creator. Thus Shura-e-Murakbah would mean something like 'the Oversight Committee'.

Another Balochi doctor assassinated

2011-12-30T11:49:00.000Z

Dr Baqir's funeral in Jecobabad earlier today

The assassination campaign continues in Balochistan, most recently with the murder of Dr Baqir Shah yesterday in Quetta. Shah, a prominent police surgeon, conducted the postmortems on five foreigners - four Russians and a Tajik, including two women - who were shot dead by police and soldiers from the Frontier Corps in Kharotabad on 17 May. The security forces at first insisted that all five had been killed by the explosion of a hand grenade in their possession, but Dr Shah's examination proved that they had all been killed by bullets fired by the security forces themselves. The Russian and Tajik embassies both declared that their nationals had been innocent of any crime.
There had been signs that Dr Shah was in danger. Following his postmortem on the five people killed in May, he was badly beaten by a group of ten men dressed in police uniforms, who attempted to abduct him. He later issued a statement that he had received threats to his life, saying he had been pressurised to change his postmortem report.
Dr Shah was the third prominent Balochi doctor to have been killed in the last three months, prompting strikes and walk-outs by colleagues across the province. Two further doctors remain missing. The slain doctor was on his way home from Bolan Medical Complex hospital, where he worked, when two men opened fire from point blank range at his head. He was taken to Bolan Medical Complex Hospital in his car where he was pronounced dead.
His assistant, Abdul Hameed Mengal, the only witness, who was sitting in the car, told the police that when Dr. Shah slowed his car close to his house, one of the two gunmen rushed towards him and started firing. Both assassins covered their faces and escaped on motorcycle.
The Baloch Doctors’ Forum (BDF) strongly condemned the killing of Dr Shah saying the incident was part of the ongoing “government-sponsored cycle of targeted assaults on Baloch doctors”.
The BDF called an emergency meeting for today (Friday) and also announced a strike in hospitals all over Balochistan in protest against Dr Shah's killing. Out-patient departments will remain closed for an indefinite period.

Who's representing the Taliban?

2011-12-29T13:22:00.001Z

Useful article on who may or may not be representing the Taliban in peace talks, written by Mujib Mashal for al-Jazeera.

New evidence in Benazir murder case

2011-12-29T13:06:00.000Z

Dawn reports an interesting development in the investigation into the murder of Benazir Bhutto, almost exactly four years ago on 27 December 2007. The paper has published a five-line letter from Brigadier Abdul Basit Rana on behalf of the then head of the ISI, to Syed Kamal Shah, secretary of Pakistan's Interior Ministry.
The letter, dated 10 December 2007 and headlined 'al-Qaeda Threat', states: "It has reliably been reported that a few extremist groups related to al Qaeda have made some plan to assassinate Mrs.Benzir Bhutto and her adviser Mr Rehman Malik on 21 December 2007. The exact plan of execution not known."
Immediately on receiving the letter Kamal Shah added in his own writing "This is a threat with specific date, we should sensitize them". He directed Brig Javed Iqbal Cheema, then director general of the Interior Ministry's National Crisis Management Cell, to speak to Rehman Malik and warn him. Cheema wrote back to say he had done so. Malik is known immediately to have written a three-page memo requesting a tightening of security around the recently returned politician.
According to Dawn, Brig Rana, who provided the intelligence, has yet to appear in front of the official investigation into Bhutto's murder, so it is uncertain where the information originated. Bhutto was killed in a gun and bomb attack on her car in Rawalpindi. It is widely believed that the killing was organised by Baitullah Mahsud, then leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Mahsud was killed in a drone strike in August 2009.

Bhutto in Rawalpindi moments before she was killed

Sen. Lieberman calls for Taliban censorship

2011-12-27T17:47:00.001Z

The Telegraph reports that Joe Lieberman, chair of the US Senate Homeland Security Committee, wants to block the Taliban's twitter account. Aides told the paper that pro-Taliban feeds, including @ABalkhi and @alemarahweb - which I follow - should be blocked because they regularly boast about the deaths of "cowardly invaders" and "puppet" Afghan government forces.
Grow up Mr Lieberman. We live in the information age. Censorship achieves nothing. You should be more concerned about the fact that the Taliban is far more effective in communicating its messages than US forces in Afghanistan. And it will soon have a public office in one or more Islamic countries if press reports emanating from Afghanistan today can be believed.

Body of former bank governor's killer found

2011-12-27T17:17:00.000Z

More on the death of former Afghanistan central bank head Mir Najibullah Sadat Sahou, who was shot dead at the end of September in San Diego, California, which I wrote about here.
Mr Sahou, who drove a taxi, was shot dead late at night by a passenger, who then took his cab and abandoned it on a coast road several miles away. At the time there was some suggestion of a possible political motive for the killing.
Now police have revealed that recreational divers recently found the body of the main suspect in the killing, Ismael Raul Lopez, in the Pacific Ocean. Along with the bones, divers also found part of Lopez's skull with a bullet hole in it. Police believe that the killer either jumped the curb of the coastal road by accident or intended to drive into the sea, as paint marks on the cab matched those of the wooden fence next to the road. One theory is that the 28-year-old convicted paedophile tried to commit suicide by driving the car into the ocean. When that failed he walked to the water's edge and then shot himself in the head.

Redacted version of border incident report

2011-12-27T16:54:00.000Z

A redacted version of the official investigation by Brigadier General Stephen A Clark into the recent incident at the Salala Checkpoint, Khas-Kunar province on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in which 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed can be found here.
While stating that the catalyst for the engagement was the opening of fire on a joint Afghan Army/US Special Forces operation by Pakistani soldiers from the other side of the poorly demarcated border, the report admits that procedures and directives governing this kind of operation close to the border "lacked clarity and precision" and were not followed. It further states that "time-sensitive senior Command override measures" for such incidents are lacking and that a series of mis-communications within the chain of command delayed confirmation of the identity of the Pakistani forces that had been attacked.
That having been said, the hysterical reaction of the Pakistan military to the incident had more to do with internal politicking and relations between the military and the civilian government than to the incident itself. Pakistan's military and intelligence communities are increasingly disturbed by the devastation being caused to the insurgency along the border by the US drone campaign and operations such as the one that led to this firing incident. It is no secret that they are only willing to take action against insurgents who are fighting the Pakistani state itself, not against those who target NATO and US forces across the border in Afghanistan.

Pakistan Taliban crisis deepens

2011-12-19T17:18:00.000Z

An interesting article in Pakistan's Express Tribune sheds further light on the demise of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The article suggests that the TTP is now in terminal decline, with its leader Hakimullah Mahsud isolated due to threats from drones and from the Pakistan military.
They quote a former associate thus: “He is virtually a lonely man running for his life … he is always on the move and doesn’t meet even his once most-trusted lieutenants”.
As I suggested below in the article on Shamim Mahsud and the TTP in South Waziristan, the reason for Hakimullah's isolation is partly due to the existence of peace talks with the Pakistan government - although I was wrong in thinking that it was the Waliur Rehman faction that was excluded from talks.
In fact, it is Hakimullah who has refused to talk to Pakistan's government - presumably under the influence of al-Qaeda and other die-hard jihadists - while Waliur Rehman from South Waziristan and Maulvi Faqir Mohammad from Bajaur are reported to be in discussions.
The latest claim from Maulvi Faqir Mohammad came 10 days ago, when he said talks were progressing and that they had so far resulted in the release of 145 Taliban prisoners. However, Mullah Dadullah, leader of the TTP in Bajaur, quickly denied the claim, adding that fighting would continue until sharia law was introduced throughout the whole of Pakistan.
The Express Tribune article says that money has dried up for the TTP and this has led to the desertion of former supporters, many of whom only fought for money. The TTP's shura, or ruling council, has shrunk from nearly 40 members to less than 10.
The reason funds are in short supply, the article speculates, is that the Afghan Taliban has stopped paying the TTP because it is now in negotiations with the Afghan government.
Presumably Pakistan will introduce an amnesty for TTP members that agree to call a truce with the government, although the ISI will be happy if they continue to fight across the border in Afghanistan.
However, if talks with the Afghan Taliban leadership are really underway, this may be difficult. The big question is where this will leave the foreign jihadists. In his recent interview (see below), Shamim Mahsud was quite happy to show correspondents the houses in the Ladda area where fighters from Turkmenistan were living and training. How will they and the other foreigners fit into the picture?

The murder of a good man

2011-12-16T16:34:00.001Z

Zarteef Khan Afridi

How sad to hear of the murder of Zarteef Khan Afridi, coordinator in the Khyber Agency for the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. Afridi, 52, was shot dead by masked men on 5th December as he walked to the school in the Saparee area where he had taught for more than 20 years. The killing was claimed by the Abdullah Azzam Brigade - a cover name that could refer to any of the half-dozen militant groups that infest the area.
Hundreds of people turned out in Peshawar on 8th December to honour Zarteef's memory. His family said that Zarteef had recently been receiving death threats because of his opposition to Taliban activity in Khyber and because of his support for women's rights - in a remarkable display of his own practical support for women's rights he married off his three daughters without asking for or receiving bride money.
He was well known for promoting education and the observance of human rights. The HRCP called him a "tireless human rights defender". Some idea of his work can be found here.
In 1996 he founded the FATA Education and Welfare Society to promote secular education over madrassah schooling. He was almost a lone voice amongst tribesmen in Khyber seeking to promote secularism. For this he was labelled by local leaders and clergy as a kaffir.
Despite the threats, which grew in regularity and vehemence, Zarteef declined to leave Khyber. Sadly, he paid with his life for this brave decision.

Confusing reports on Pakistan Taliban

2011-12-15T15:32:00.001Z

TTP fighters train in South Waziristan

It's a little depressing when you cannot rely on major news agencies to get even basic details right. Both AP and Reuters are carrying reports about a journey made by their correspondents to meet leaders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Laddah region of South Waziristan.
According to the Reuters account, the group of three senior tribal journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, the "deputy commander" of the TTP at his secret base in the mountains close to the border with Afghanistan.
According to an updated report by Ishtiaq Mahsud of AP, the reporters had been invited to meet with Hakimullah Mahsud, leader of the TTP, but he had cancelled, with his aides saying he had had to meet a delegation of Afghan Taliban elders who had arrived from across the border. This report again refers to and quotes from Shamim Mahsud, now calling him the "operational commander" of the TTP.
But a third report, from Sailab Mehsud in the Dawn newspaper, differs yet again. This says that the journalists met with Shamim Mahsud, who Sailab describes (correctly) as "the key operational commander and chief of Laddah sub-division chapter of TTP". However, he adds that "The journalists were invited to meet commander Waliur Rehman, Emir of South Waziristan Taliban, but he was busy in meetings with some Taliban delegations from Afghanistan and other areas of Pakistan. Then they had to meet Shamim Mehsud."
Confused? You should be. There is a big difference between meeting Hakimullah in South Waziristan and meeting Waliur Rahman.
It may help to know that Shamim Mahsud and Waliur Rahman, his emir, are not exactly close to Hakimullah Mahsud and the rest of the leadership of the TTP. For a time there was a blood feud between Shamim and Qari Hussein, Hakimullah's deputy, over who had the right to train suicide bombers. You can read more about that in an interesting article published by the FATA Research Centre. The fact that Shamim seems to have facilitated this unusual trip for journalists is significant, simply for this fact alone. It suggests that Shamim is attempting to reassert Waliur Rahman's claim to leadership of the TTP, perhaps because the South Waziristan faction of the group has been excluded from peace talks rumoured to have been held recently with the government.
Either way, perhaps our main foreign news agencies, on whom we rely for important information, can try a little harder to get basic information right first time.

Available in a variety of colours....

2011-12-03T14:40:00.001Z

I am grateful to Mujib Masha, who tweets as @MujMash, for tweeting this fantastic pic of an old Jeep photographed recently at the Torkham border post in the Khyber Pass between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its flying an Afghan flag, so presumably it's on that side of the border.

Getting aid right in Pakistan

2011-11-30T18:25:00.001Z

Bringing out a report on the effect of the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act - which regulates US non-military aid to Pakistan - just as relations between the two countries disappear down the pan may not be the best of timing. But a 17-strong panel brought together by the Woodrow Wilson Center's Asia Program has concluded that robust US civilian assistance to Pakistan serves important interests in both countries.
Aiding Without Abetting: Making US Civilian Assistance to Pakistan Work for Both Sides also warns that changes are needed to the Act and offers almost 30 recommendations. The report recommends that aid should not be tied to security or economic reform and that Pakistan should be pressed to return to an arrangement with the IMF.
It suggests a more realistic timeline for stepping up the percentages of US aid to be dispensed through Pakistani government structures, while at the same time pressing the country to improve tracking and donor oversight of aid. Support for the Benazir Income Support Program should only be continued if political manipulation can be halted.
Priorities for funding should be clean urban water, power, sanitation, youth organisations and literacy training. Support should also be given to the small/medium enterprises sector.
There are many other good proposals in this report from a group of experts who clearly understand the weaknesses of the present system.
However, it is hard to be as optimistic as the authors of this report about the prospects for the future. It is self-evident that much of the senior bureaucracy in Pakistan is in reality a kleptocracy. Aid enriches officials - and international NGOs - and only seldom reaches down to the masses. Monitoring costs consume an ever-increasing proportion of aid. And the political context is becoming ever-more complex. The Woodrow Wilson report says that terminating the US assistance program "would fuel anti-Americanism in Pakistan". In truth, relations between the two countries are so bad at present, that short of outright war, it is hard to perceive them as being any worse: the Raymond Davis affair, the killing of bin Laden, the growing Pakistani opposition to drone attacks, the recent cross-border attack, the ongoing support by the Pakistan military for the insurgency in Afghanistan and many other incidents mark what must be the worst year for US-Pakistan bilateral relations in a generation. I'm not convinced that even a $7.5 billion aid program can sort that lot out.

BAE Systems dishonours a US hero

2011-11-30T11:04:00.001Z

Former US Marine sergeant Dakota Meyer, a recipient of America's highest award for valour, is suing British defence contractor BAE Systems, saying the company ridiculed his award and falsely claimed he was mentally unstable and suggested he had a drink problem. The claims, says Meyer, cost him a job.

Meyer has filed a lawsuit in San Antonio, Texas, claiming his former employer - BAE Systems OASYS Inc, prevented him from getting a job by telling his prospective employer that he was a poor worker during the three months he worked for the company in the spring of this year.

Even worse for BAE Systems, it turns out that Meyer left the company after protesting that it was selling advanced thermal-optic sniper scopes to Pakistan. The scopes were more powerful than those used by US troops and Meyer was appalled that they could be used against his former comrades in Afghanistan. "This is where I could see me still 'doing my part' for the guys who are in the same situation now that I was in 18 months ago," he explained in an email to his former supervisor. Meyer's lawsuit alleges that the supervisor "berated and belittled" him after he objected to the sale.

After Meyer resigned in May, he attempted to get his old job back, but the BAE supervisor then wrote to his previous manager, saying that he was mentally unstable, was not performing his duties and had problems with social drinking.

Mayer received his Medal of Honor from President Obama at the White House in September this year. The citation reads: "For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the repeated risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty as a member of Marine Embedded Training Team 2-8, Regional Corps Advisory Command 3-7, in Kunar Province, Afghanistan, on 8 September 2009". During a six-hour ambush at Ganjgal in Kunar, he saved 36 lives. Ignoring orders to the contrary, he repeatedly drove a Humvee into the ambush site to rescue his fellow Marines and Afghan soldiers. Together with fellow Marine, Staff Sgt. Juan J. Rodriguez-Chavez, he made five runs to pull out wounded Afghan troops, and then went back in, only to find that the remaining four Marines were dead. Rodriguez-Chavez was awarded the Navy Cross for his actions (along with Captain Ademola D Fabayo)that day. Mayer is only the third living recipient of the Medal of Honor since the Vietnam War and the first living US Marine to be so honoured.

The company intends to contest the case, although the chances of BAE Systems winning are negligible. Who was the idiot that sanctioned the action against Meyer? And who was the even bigger idiot trying to sell such advanced weaponry to Pakistan?

Debating the US National Intelligence Estimate

2011-11-24T10:48:00.001Z

Excellent, well-informed article by Steve Coll in the New Yorker on the latest US National Intelligence Estimate on the war in Afghanistan. Coll says the NIEs, which are seldom published and are classified Secret or Top Secret, contain the most up-to-date information on the Obama Administration's take on the war. The last two, he says offered a gloomy picture, with the 2010 report warning that "large swathes of Afghanistan are still at risk of falling to the Taliban".
The new draft, around 100 pages long and due to be circulated shortly, contains six Key Judgments and is said to be gloomier than the typical public statements made by US military commanders in Afghanistan.
It is said to raise doubts about the authenticity and durability of alleged gains in Kandahar and Helmand provinces since the Obama troop surge and also suggests that the next generation of political leaders after Karzai will be more corrupt.
It also questions the success of the programme to train and equip the Afghan military and police forces, noting that the projected cost of running a force of 350,000 after 2014 will be $8-10 billion a year, more than the US is willing or able to pay.
As Coll points out, you hardly need secret information to come to these conclusions. It is not hard to see that little progress is being made in the country and that conditions in many areas are deteriorating, despite the billions of dollars sloshing around in military and civilian aid.
Coll says that Maj.Gen. John R Allen, the US commander in Afghanistan, and Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador, believe the NIE to be too pessimistic and that they intend to dissent from its conclusions. With General David Petraeus now in charge of the CIA there is also a danger, says Coll, that intelligence from that quarter will also be 'militarised'. To guard against this he argues that unclassified versions of the key judgments in the latest NIE should be published so that they can be publicly debated. Well said.

Can the Libyans solve a bin Laden mystery?

2011-11-22T15:19:00.001Z

Until its final days, the regime of Libya's Colonel Gaddaffi liked to remind the West that it was his government that issued the very first arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden, way back in March 1998.
That warrant accused bin Laden and three Libyan accomplices of responsibility for the 1994 murders of Germany's top counter-terrorism officer, Silvan Becker and his wife Vera, in the coastal city of Sirte - ironically the place where Gaddaffi himself met his end in October. The warrant was forwarded to Interpol headquarters in Lyon France and on 15 April 1998 it was issued as an official international arrest warrant. However, the 'red notice' warrant received almost no publicity at the time and was only revealed years later in an obscure French book on bin Laden.
With the death of Gaddaffi and the capture of his intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi a few days ago, perhaps the true story of the Beckers' murder will be revealed.
At the heart of this story is the question of whether or not the Beckers were killed by Islamists opposed to the Gaddaffi regime or by the regime itself.
According to the official story, Becker worked for Division Six, the terrorism department of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (the BfV). He had responsibility for Arab terrorism and latterly, for the Tamil LTTE. Vera Becker is also believed to have worked for the BfV and both were said to be working on the investigation into the Lockerbie bombing, elements of which were planned in Germany.
Working in such sensitive posts, they should never have been in Libya in the first place and no convincing explanation of how the couple ended up there on a 'sight-seeing' tour has ever been given.
However, on 10 March 1994, soon after arriving in Libya, the couple were both shot and taken to a military hospital in Sirte. Vera Becker died on 28 March and Silvan Becker died on 10 April 1994.
Were the couple on an officially 'unauthorised' visit to Libya - don't forget that Libya had been accused of bombing the La Belle nightclub in Berlin in April 1986 and that there were no diplomatic relations between the two countries - or was something else afoot? To this day, the BfV refuses to offer any further information on the affair or even to confirm that Becker was involved in the La Belle/Lockerbie investigations.
The Libyans accused three citizens - Faraj al-Alwan, Faez Abu Zeid al-Warfali and Faraj al-Chalabi, all members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Groups - of carrying out the killings on the instructions of Osama bin Laden. All three are still wanted by Interpol where their mugshots can be found on the official website.
However, other scenarios have been proposed. According to some reports, the Beckers travelled to Egypt under false identity to work with Egyptian intelligence officers evaluating the results of the embargo on Libya and to update their information on changes within the leadership of the Libyan intelligence community. Having finished their official business in Cairo, the couple headed up to Alexandria for a few days relaxation.
According to this scenario, it was whilst they were in Alexandria that they were likely abducted and taken across the border to Libya where they were interrogated and later shot - although presumably the Libyans would have killed them outright rather than let them live.
The Interpol warrant for bin Laden was first revealed by French writers Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasquie in their book Bin Laden: the Hidden Truth. They maintained that the warrant was not acted upon or publicised because Western intelligence agencies, in particular MI6, were funding the Libyan Islamic Fighting Groups to the tune of £100,000 in the hope that they would assassinate Gaddaffi.
Whatever happened, with the departure of Gaddaffi and his security apparatus, there is now an opportunity to solve this case.

Will the real Zabihullah Mujahid please stand up?

2011-11-14T10:33:00.001Z

Reports that Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has been arrested in Paktika Province may be somewhat premature. Much as all IRA statements in the past were signed by P O'Neill, which was never a specific person, ZM is a nom-de-guerre used to show that statements are sanctioned by the Taliban leadership, not the actual person. Whilst there is possibly a person who issues press statements on behalf of the Taliban leadership, it is much more likely to be the cover name for anyone speaking on their behalf. The person arrested in the Saw Hawsa area of Paktika told his captors that he was the Paktika ZM and that others existed in different areas.

Of more significance is the Taliban's claim yesterday to have obtained detailed security plans (see above) for this week's Karzai-controlled 'loya jirga' taking place in Kabul. The 28 pages and six maps seem genuine enough although Afghan government officials claim they are fake.

Lessons not learned by Taliban fighters

2011-11-09T17:12:00.001Z

Yesterday's attack on Combat Outpost Margah in the Barmal district of Paktika province, only a couple of miles from the border with Pakistan, is not the first large-scale assault on this base.
In yesterday's attack around 70 insurgents - many of them foreign fighters, identified by their radio chatter prior and during the attack - were killed for no reported US casualties. Most of those killed died through accurate bombing from aircraft and artillery called in during the six-hour attack.
Compare that attack to an almost identical event that occurred at COP Margah on 30 October last year, when 60 US soldiers from Fox Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Infantry came under attack in the night from a large number of insurgents, of whom around 80 were killed. Reports on that attack can be found here and here.
The ferociousness of that encounter, one of the largest between US forces and insurgents in the last 10 years, can be gauged from the medals awarded afterwards: Fox Company soldiers received one Silver Star, three Bronze Stars, 12 Army Commendation Medals, two Purple Hearts and 10 Combat Infantrymen Badges.
And just a few weeks before the recent attack, on 7 October, Haqqani fighters launched a series of attacks on several US bases in the area, including Margah. According to one report, COP Margah itself was hit by 111 high explosive rockets plus mortars. Then, at 8am, as this official photo shows, an attempt was made to drive a truck bomb across flat ground straight into the base. It was stopped 50 yards short of the base when the driver was killed and the explosives ignited.

Presumably in most of these cases the US had advance information about the attacks. But why, having been so comprehensively defeated at this location, did the Taliban/Haqqani fighters come back again and again?

Pak Taliban flexes its muscles in FATA

2011-11-08T12:33:00.000Z

TTP warning leaflet distributed in Tank last week

An article on the website of the FATA Research Centre says that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has started a campaign against tribal elders and peace committee members who are opposed to them in different parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It says that more than 20 pro-government tribal elders and members of tribal lashkars (militias) have been killed in Bajaur alone in the last two months, forcing many to reconsider their decision to support the security forces in the area.
TTP militants have also begun to kill the leaders of the Abdullah group, the only anti-TTP group based in Tank and Dera Ismail Khan districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkwha. The Abdullah group has been successful in keeping the TTP out of these areas for the last two years. But on 25 October Shahad u Din Burki, head of the Abdullah Group in Tank was gunned down. Later the same date another member of the group, Asmatullah Mahsud, was also shot dead. The TTP later distributed leaflets in the area warning people not to work for the government.
Contractors working for the government on road construction in South Waziristan have also been targetted by the TTP, including Faizullah Bhittani - whose son was killed - and Saboor Bhittani, both from the Tank district.
There are also serious problems in Orakzai agency, which the army has claimed on numerous occasions to have cleared of militants. The News reports that parts of Upper Orakzai are still a stronghold of the TTP and that several hundred Pakistani and foreign fighters control an area of 25 square kilometres in this mountainous region. From here they can easily move from Mamozai either towards Kurram and the border with Afghanistan, or towards the Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency. The TTP fighters recently showed their contempt for local security forces when on 11 October they subjected the governor of Orakzai Agency, Syed Masood Kausar, to a rocket attack that killed a boy and injured nine officials.
So bad has the situation become that Salamat Khan Orakzai, head of the pro-government Amn Lashkar militia announced this week that he was closing down their centre in Shahukhel village in Hangu district due to non-cooperation from the security forces and the government. Nine members of the lashkar have been killed in the last year and 13 others injured. “The government had pledged to provide us with arms and ammunition but it could not deliver on its promise. We cannot continue battling the militants on our own,” said Salamat Khan Orakzai.

Istanbul conference - not a lot happened

2011-11-07T15:23:00.001Z

Whatever happened at the Istanbul conference on 'Security and Cooperation in the heart of Asia' that promised so much and was billed as the precursor to the Bonn conference to be held next month?
Not a lot is the short answer. Most of Afghanistan's neighbours were unwilling to support American plans to establish permanent military bases in the country beyond 2014. Nor would they act as guarantors for a 'new regional mechanism' for peace in the country. Host country Turkey, together with the USA, were forced to drop the original draft proposal to set up a contact group for monitoring a series of confidence-building measures, opting instead for a much more anodyne statement.
In the end this conference fell victim to American attempts to load it with a series of geopolitical manoeuvres that tried to sideline Russian and Chinese ambitions in Central Asia. This strategy was never going to work. In fact, in the long term it has probably strengthened the hand of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the only regional security mechanism the Russians and Chinese (and Pakistan) are willing to countenance. The chances of the Bonn conference in a few weeks time producing a diplomatic breakthrough - or even of the Taliban showing up - are receding by the day.

Taliban fighters told to avoid civilian casualties

2011-11-04T16:52:00.000Z

Mullah Omar's Eid-ul-Adha message emphasises the need to avoid civilian casualties, even suggesting that religious scholars should be used to preach protection of civilian life, wealth and honour to the mujahideen. He says that all civilian casualties caused by the mujahideen should be reported to superiors. If a case is proved against a muhahideen then a penalty should be implemented in accordance with sharia law.

US civilian aid to Afghanistan begins to fall

2011-11-04T16:40:00.005Z

The Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan - part of the US State Department - has issued a status report on civilian engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan that makes it clear that US civilian aid will begin to decline as troop levels are reduced over the next three years.
Already US economic and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan has fallen from $4.1 billion in 2010 to $2.5 billion this year, the report says, as it shifts from funding stabilisation projects to "long-term sustainable development at lower funding levels".

Whatever happened to the 9/11 planners?

2011-11-01T10:35:00.001Z

A recently released photo of KSM in Guantanamo

Readers with a good memory may remember that the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a response to the attacks on America carried out by al-Qaeda. Those attacks were conceived and organised by Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who is now in Guantanamo. According to KSM there were 35 people who knew in advance about the attacks on America. What has happened to them? You can read their story in an article I have written (together with Yosri Fouda) for openDemocracy. The Fate of the 9/11 planners and the failure of Justice can be found here.

Pak safe havens a major problem - progress report

2011-10-31T11:58:00.002Z

The latest six-monthly Report to Congress on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan notes that ISAF has made important security gains - except in areas along the border with Pakistan - and has transferred responsibility for security to Afghan forces in seven areas. However, safe havens in Pakistan and the limited capacity of the Afghan government remain the biggest risks to creating a stable country.

After five years of increasing violence, attacks begn to fall in May 2011 compared to the previous year and they continue to decline. As a result 10,000 of the US 'surge' troops with be withdrawn by the end of 2011, with the remaining 23,000 surge troops withdrawn by the end of September 2012.
Whilst there have been security gains in the south-west and south of the country, security in the east "remains tenuous". And Kabul remains vulnerable to high-profile attacks and assassinations. The build-up of Afghan forces continues apace, with the Afghan National Army reaching 170,781 soldiers and the Afghan National Police Force reaching 136,122 policemen. Both the ANA and ANPF remain on track to achieve their respective growth goals for October 2012.
This report contains some interesting nuggets in its 138 pages. The Afghan National Army has been issued with 29,896 pieces of rolling stock in 64 variants, including high mobility multi-purpose wheeled vehicles, all built to the same standard as those issued to US troops. Afghan special forces also get the best quality night vision goggles - although the report notes that "Reinforcement of accounting procedures for these highly sensitive items is ongoing", suggesting some are going missing. There is an interesting discussion of the Afghan Air Force, which is rated as "CM-4" ie it exists, but cannot accomplish its mission.
On Special forces, the report notes that the UK has trained Commando Force 333 - a special police commando unit originally developed by UK Special Forces for counter-narcotics and interdiction, but now considered a multi-functional commando force capable of high-risk arrests - as well as Task Force 444 - a national task force developed by UK Special Forces to conduct operations in Helmand Province. In addition there is the Crisis Response Unit, based in Kabul and trained for high-risk arrests and hostage rescue missions.
The report notes that safe havens in Pakistan "represent the most significant risk to ISAF’s campaign". It adds: "Taliban senior leaders remain capable of providing strategic guidance to the broader insurgency and channeling resources to support their operational priorities. Pakistan-based senior leaders exercise varying degrees of command and control over the generally decentralized and local Afghan insurgency. Within Afghanistan, leadership structures vary by province. In general, the insurgency is led by a shadow governor and a military commander at the provincial level, who oversee district-level shadow governors and lower-level military commanders."
Other nuggets: ISAF employs 34,000 private contracted security guards, 93 per cent of whom are Afghans. However, many of these are due to be replaced by March 2012 under Presidential Decree 62, which directs that they should be replaced by the Afghan Public Protection Force. Some companies, owned by Afghan officials, have already been disbanded.

Partial indication of war casualties

2011-10-27T19:15:00.000+01:00

A useful - if incomplete - new report from the US Congressional Research Service on Military and Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan gives a partial indication of the impact of the conflict and offers both US and NATO-compiled statistics. There is no comprehensive collection of stats and the figures in this report come from a number of sources, so cannot be relied on as definitive.
As the CRS report notes: "Because the estimates of Afghan casualties contained in this report are based on varying time periods and have been created using different methodologies, readers should exercise caution when using them and should look to them as guideposts rather than as statements of fact." It should also be noted that statistics on Afghan civilian casualties did not start to be collected until 2007. Nor are there any figures for the number of insurgents killed or wounded.
However, even with these constraints, there is some useful information.
The total numbers of American soldiers killed from 7 October 2001 to 29 September 2011 during Operation Enduring Freedom are as follows:
As a result of Hostile incidents        1,411
As a result of non-hostile incidents        367
Total                  1,778

Total number of Wounded in Action 14,239

The annual breakdown for US troops is shown in the following table:

The figures for Coalition troops (below) do not include the numbers of Wounded in Action.

As for Afghan Civilians, Afghan National and Local Police and Afghan National Army, killed from 2007- August 2011, the figures are as follows:

Afghan Civilians (2007-2011): 10,757 killed

Afghan National and Local Police: 3,716 killed

Afghan National Army 1,887 killed

Total 16,360 killed

Pak airforce gets F-16 upgrade sweetener

2011-10-25T13:28:00.000+01:00

More signs that Pakistan and the United States have patched up some of their differences. US Defence contractor ITT is to supply 18 hi-tech electronic warfare pods for Pakistan's fleet of F-16 fighter aircraft at a cost of $49 million.
The ALQ-211(v)9 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare (AIDEWS) pods provide digital radar warning, high-power jamming, threat geolocation and situational awareness to the aircraft via a pod that is attached beneath the aircraft. It can also detect chemical weapons. It is the first production order for the pod which will also be made available to a number of other countries, including Oman and Taiwan.
The sale was first requested (and partly paid for) in 2008. An announcement was then made in July this year, but it is thought that the deal was finally cleared only within the last few weeks.
Although it has been reported in the defence press, the deal has not been announced on ITT's own website.

Contract cheat Sarah Lee Mitcham faces US court action

2011-10-21T10:57:00.000+01:00

Update: Regular readers of this blog will recall my articles (on 6,12 and 13 Jan 2011) about Sarah Lee Mitcham, a US defence contractor, who skipped out of Afghanistan while absent-mindedly 'forgetting' to pay her Afghan contractors the millions of dollars she had received from the US government to pay them.
I notice that one of those contractors, namely Jalal-Uddin Saeed, of Associates in Development, has now issued proceedings against Mitcham (or Lee, as she is sometimes known) in the US District Court for Northern Texas, Dallas Division for fraud and breach of contract, demanding $2 million he says he is owed.
The 26-page complaint says Mitcham and her co-accused "committed the worst kind of war profiteering seen in Afghanistan". They also undoubtedly had an impact on US Army counter-insurgency programmes, souring relations between the military and Afghan communities and probably leading to further deaths and injuries to American soldiers.
"Once the defendants received the benefit of the work from these companies they submitted invoices for payment to the US government (or the prime contractor). After receiving payment, they wrongfully kept the money amounting to at least $5 million and refused to pay the Afghan companies. In early 2010, defendants fled Afghanistan with millions rightfully belonging to the Afghan companies."
The complaint alleges that after leaving Afghanistan the Afghan contractors were told via email that Sarah Lee Mitcham had committed suicide.
In addition, Mr Saeed says that he risked his life to support NATO, against the wishes of many in his village. When he was unable to pay his workers, he and his family were forced to flee in order to save their lives. Mitcham, whose last given address is 104 Hoyt Clark Rd, Many, LA 71449-6022, is known to use at least 13 aliases. She has allegedly filed for bankruptcy protection. It is still not clear what action, besides barring her from applying for further contracts, the US Army intends to take against Lee and her associates.

Excellent new blog on Afghanistan

2011-10-20T19:13:00.001+01:00

An absolute must-read for anyone who wants to keep an eye on what is happening in the heart of Afghanistan's government is the newly-established Afghan blog, Dirty Politics. Amongst its stories:
- an amazing video clip showing how government ministers were selected at an informal meeting of Uzbek and Hazara politicians organised by prominent businessman Haji Ramazan and including General Abdul Rashid Dostum (passim), Haji Muhammad Muhaqiq, Speaker of the House Abdul Rauf Ibrahim and others;
- a video clip from Pakistan's Dunya TV in which former ISI director General Hamid Gul, in speaking of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, says (in Urdu) that both men defended Pakistan during the anti-Soviet war and stayed loyal to Pakistan until the US invasion of Afghanistan. "They are both as patriotic Pakistanis as I am," he adds.
Best story: that of a man arrested in Jalalabad province yesterday for making fake government documentation, including fake documents identifying him as President Karzai. Abdul Wares faked President Karzai's signature for permits to allow the carrying of guns and to drive a car with tinted windows. He also created counterfeit documents with the signatures of the Ministers of the Interior, Defence and Agriculture, Traffic Chief and Speaker of the Upper House.

Pak suicide bombers avoid military, kill civilians.

2011-10-15T13:00:00.002+01:00

A study of the 12 suicide attacks carried out in Pakistan in the period from July to September shows that of the 158 people killed, 123 (84 per cent) were civilians and of the 336 injured, 308 were civilians.
The Islamabad Conflict Monitoring Center notes that four attacks were in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three were in Baluchistan, four in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and one in Sindh. There were no attacks in the Punjab, Azad Kashmir or Gilgit-Baltistan. Seven of the attacks were in public places, while only four were aimed at security forces. Only one attack was aimed at the Pakistan Army and that was foiled by an alert soldier (who nonetheless died).
Looking at the figures for the first nine months of 2011, there were 36 suicide attacks in Pakistan, only four of which were aimed at military installations, including 'soft' targets such as a military bakery and a recruitment centre.
The CMC says that the operational capacity of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been badly damaged: "Initially suicide attacks were meant to target only high value targets, which required high level of planning, but now TTP using its suicide weapon just like a shotgun with almost no strategic planning involved."

Aftermath of suicide attack on a mosque in Jamrud, 19 August

The report adds that the death of the TTP's Qari Hussein in a drone strike last year was a huge blow to the TTP. Hussein was the main planner for suicide attacks. "TTP's command structured is now ineffective and suicide attacks are no more controlled by its central command." The consequences are that targets are now chosen by local commanders, with predictable results. For example, a suicide attack on a mosque in Jamrud on 19 August that was planned by the Tariq Afridi group of the TTP based in Khyber Agency and which killed more than 50 people has caused huge damage to the organisation, even in areas where there was previously some sympathy.

Chinook shoot-down report

2011-10-15T11:09:00.000+01:00

The summary of the official report into the shooting down of a US Chinook CH-47D helicopter in Wardak Province on 6 August, which killed all 38 special forces and aircrew on board (plus a military working dog), makes fascinating reading. There are comparatively few reports on combat operations available in the public domain and we only tend to see them when there has been a tragedy of some kind - in this case the worse combat loss for the US forces during the whole campaign in Afghanistan. While no-one is blamed for the disaster, yet again it shows how a $50 RPG can cause immense losses, both of men and materiel.

Murder of former central bank governor in California

2011-10-14T11:26:00.000+01:00

Sad to read about the death of Mir Najibullah Sadat Sahou, former governor of Afghanistan's central bank. The 69-year-old Sorbonne-trained economist was shot dead in San Diego at the end of September while working a late shift driving a taxi.
Sahou, who also hosted a talk-show on Ariana-Afghanistan International TV, based in Irvine, California, left Afghanistan in 1992 after the collapse of the Presidency of Burhanuddin Rabbani, who was himself murdered in Kabul a few weeks ago. In fact, Sahou's last broadcast programme focussed on the killing of his former mentor.
According to witnesses, Sahou and his killer got out of the cab just before midnight. Three shots were fired, after which the killer got into the cab, leaving Sahou on the pavement. The cab was found abandoned a few miles away.
Despite his master's degree in finance and economics from the Sorbonne and fluency in four languages, Sahou was unable to find work in the United States and finally decided to purchase a taxi cab, although according to his daughter Savitar he remained very much a scholar, reading during breaks on the job and writing poetry.
Some family members believe that Sahou was executed and that there may have been a political motive to the killing, but police are treating the crime as robbery-murder.

ISAF capture/kill operations decline - report

2011-10-12T18:54:00.000+01:00

A new report from the Afghanistan Analysts Network on ISAF capture/kill operations, written by Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, shows a significant fall-off in such operations from June 2011, possibly due to the departure of General David Petraeus, whose command saw an increased emphasis on such actions.
The authors' data comes from ISAF press releases, of which there were 3,771 between 1 December 2009 and 20 September 2011. These releases report a total of 3,157 incidents, during which 3,873 individuals were reported killed and 7,146 were detained.
The authors point to inconsistencies in ISAF's terminology, with the terms 'facilitators' and 'leaders' often used interchangeably. About five per cent of those killed and 13 per cent of those detained during these operations are described by ISAF as leaders or facilitators.
The reason for the decline in capture/kill operations since June this year is now the subject of much speculation in the military. Yesterday, Maj. Gen. Michael Krause, deputy chief of staff for ISAF, said that for the first time, Taliban attacks in Afghanistan are declining - they were lower in the past two months than during the same time period last year. Krause also revealed that ISAF had intercepted a communication from the Taliban's "inner shura" admitting that their summer campaign to take back the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand had "utterly failed."

Massive increase in Afghan opium production

2011-10-11T14:26:00.000+01:00

The area under opium cultivation in Afghanistan is seven per cent higher this year than last, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011. A total of 131,000 hectares was under cultivation, compared to 125,000 ha last year.
However, that obscures the fact that the amount of opium produced will rise by 61 per cent this year compared to last, to a total of 5,800 metric tonnes. This is because crops were affected by disease last year, which dramatically reduced yields.
With rising prices, it will also mean that the roughly 200,000 families - about five per cent of the total population - involved in the business will see their incomes rise dramatically, in some cases almost doubling. The average farm-gate price is up 41 per cent on last year. Total farm-gate income is likely to be around $1.407bn, from a per-hectare income of around $10,700.
Ninety-five per cent of cultivation took place in nine provinces in the South and Western regions of the country, with three fewer provinces being poppy-free this year. Baghlan, Faryab and Kapisa were the provinces that returned to cultivation. The UNODC points out the strong correlation between opium production and insurgency and reckons the Taliban will earn around $700m from the opium trade this year.
There have been some counter-narcotic successes, with a reduction in opium cultivation in central Helmand province, mainly due to the successful introduction of counter narcotics programmes by the central government. But in the north and south of the province production increased. To put things in context, total eradication amounted to only about three per cent of the area under cultivation.
While Afghanistan continues to be the source of much of the world's heroin, the main sufferers from this trade are the Afghans themselves, with tens of thousands of new addicts and a growing problem with HIV/AIDS infection.

UN report criticises torture in Afghanistan

2011-10-10T16:16:00.002+01:00

A report published today by the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) found that almost half (125 or 46 per cent) of the 273 conflict-related detainees UNAMA interviewed who had been held by Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS) had experienced torture, as defined under international law, and 41 (35 per cent) of the 117 detainees held by the ANP experienced treatment that constituted torture or other forms of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.
“UNAMA’s findings indicate that mistreatment is not an institutional or Government policy,” said Steffan de Mistura, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan. “The fact that the NDS and Ministry of the Interior cooperated with UNAMA’s detention observation programme suggests that reform is both possible and desired as does the Government’s announced remedial actions to end these abusive practices. UNAMA welcomes the Government’s timely attention to this issue and steps taken to put in place corrective and preventive measures.”
In early September ISAF stopped transferring detainees to 16 installations identified as places where, according to UNAMA, torture took place. Afghan officials have launched their own inquiries, have begun to change procedures and say they will punish anyone found to be responsible for such behaviour. Hmmm.

Pakistan anti-drone campaign loses momentum

2011-10-07T12:06:00.000+01:00

The Islamabad-based Conflict Monitoring Center, which monitors drone attacks and anti-state insurgencies in South Asia, notes in its latest report that the CIA has only carried out four attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas in September, killing 22 and injuring 9 others - a substantial reduction on the same month last year.
Most of those killed, it says, were unknown suspected militants, but they also included al-Qaeda's operational chief in Pakistan, Abu Hafs al-Shahri and Haleemullah, a deputy to the Mullah Nazir faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.
The CMC - which says it is independent, but does not reveal the source of its funding - says the number of attacks in the first month that General David Petraeus has been in charge of the CIA - he took up office on 6 September - was particularly low, although overall figures for 2011 are also lower than in previous years.
The figures show that in the first nine months of 2011 there were 66 drone attacks, killing around 515 people. The CMC argues that there is a punitive element to the drone campaign and that attacks are not solely motivated by the aim of killing militants: "United States uses this lethal weapon for its punitive approach towards Pakistan." It claims that a particularly brutal attack on 17 March this year, in which 40 tribesmen attending a tribal jirga were killed, was a revenge attack for the detention of CIA contractor Raymond Davis.
The CMC report also notes: "The CIA has carried out a drone attack after every high level meeting between Pakistani and American officials during the year 2011". Not sure if this argument can be verified, when there have been so many attacks, but clearly there is a perception in Pakistan that this is happening.
Interestingly, the report notes that following the reduction in the number of drone attacks over this summer, the protest movement in Pakistan has lost its momentum. "No significant public protest was observed during the month of September 2011. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf – a political party led by veteran cricketer Imran Khan- had started sit-ins (Dharna) against drone attacks in May and June but during previous two months, the party has not organized any protest in this regard. In Pakistan’s National Assembly, the issue of drone attacks was raised by parliamentarians a few months back however, after the reduction in number of drone attacks, the issue is no more of prime attention of the parliamentarians."

£4bn annual cost of UK military ops in Afghanistan

2011-10-05T16:56:00.001+01:00

A research paper published by the House of Commons in September on the cost of Britain's international military operations reveals that expenditure in Afghanistan totalled £3.774 billion in 2010-11, very slightly lower than the year before. Total costs for the current financial year are likely to be £4.0 billion.
The report also provides details of the increase in troop numbers since June 2002 when there were only 400 UK troops in Afghanistan. Those seem like faraway days. Since April this year there have been around 9,500 military personnel deployed in Afghanistan, the highest figure ever in the present campaign.

CIA contractor gets into another fight

2011-10-03T10:19:00.001+01:00

A smartened-up Davis arriving at court

Oh dear. I see that Raymond Davis, the CIA contractor who got himself into a spot of bother in Pakistan after he shot dead two men in the street, has got himself into further trouble in the notorious bandit country of Highlands Ranch, south of Denver, Colorado.

Davis, who was freed in Pakistan in March after someone paid $2.34 million in blood money to the families of the men he killed, was arrested Saturday in the car park of an Einstein Bros Bagel outlet after getting into a fight over a shopping centre parking spot. He was charged with third-degree assault on Jeff Maes and disorderly conduct and was freed from the Douglas County Jail after posting bail of $1,750.
Update: On Tuesday Davis was charged with second degree assault, a felony which carries a minimum sentence on conviction of five years. The judge at the hearing said Davis needed to work on 'anger management' issues and banned him from carrying a gun in Colorado. He told Davis, who described himself as a weapons instructor working in Washington DC, that he could travel to DC and use a weapon there. Hopefully he will not take the judge up on the offer. The bail bond was raised to $10,000. Davis will be back in court on 15 December for a preliminary hearing.

Here's something you didn't read earlier

2011-09-30T12:16:00.001+01:00

More than two months after it was published - on 17 July - the UK Defence Select Committee report on Operations in Afghanistan has still received almost no publicity.
This is worrying. The committee laboured for months, visiting Afghanistan and holding hearings at which just about every senior officer in the armed forces appeared - not to mention many other witnesses - and yet its conclusions have been greeted with near silence. No newspaper reports, no TV coverage, about the most expensive and extensive military campaign ever mounted by Britain.
The same was true of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee report on Afghanistan that appeared in August 2009 and received almost no coverage. (You can read my comments on it here.)
Is there something wrong with our parliamentary system? What is the point of these long, extended inquiries if they receive no publicity and no-one takes any notice? And what is wrong with the press? Why are they not holding our lawmakers to account? It's not as if these inquiries are about minor issues. Hundreds of soldiers have died and many hundreds more have been wounded. Here's some figures from the report that you may have missed:
"From the start of operations in Afghanistan in 2001 to 15 June 2011, 371 British military personnel were killed with a further 586 very seriously or seriously wounded. Over 5,000 troops were admitted to the field hospital of whom 1,712 were wounded in action and the remainder had a non battle injury or disease. Some 4,700 personnel were evacuated back to the UK by air."
In case you are interested, amongst other things, the report examines the thinking behind the decision to send British troops into Helmand in 2006, concluding overall that it was a bad idea. In particular the committee was very upset that the Ministry of Defence would not let it see Chiefs of Staff Committee minutes that discussed the deployment to Helmand. Ahh, now I'm beginning to understand....

Debunking myths about Afghanistan

2011-09-28T15:29:00.001+01:00

In case you have absorbed some of the many myths associated with Afghanistan, veteran Guardian reporter Jonathan Steele has drawn up a debunking list of the ten most prevalent. Have the Afghans always beaten foreign armies? Check out the list, extracted from his latest book Ghosts of Afghanistan: The Haunted Battleground, Portobello, £25.

How to go to war and make money

2011-09-27T11:31:00.004+01:00

Sidharth Handa (r) receives a Bronze Star in happier days

Case one: Last Friday Sidharth 'Tony' Handa, a former captain in the US Army Reserve, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for soliciting $1.3 million in bribes from contractors involved in US-funded reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and participating in a conspiracy to traffic heroin. It is the largest Army-connected bribery prosecution relating to Afghanistan. Handa, of Charlotte, NC, was also ordered to pay $315,000 in restitution.
“Mr. Handa used his official position assisting the United States’ reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan to line his pockets,” said US Assistant Attorney General Lanny A Breuer. “He promised multi-million dollar contracts to Afghan businessmen in exchange for cash. He was so meticulous about collecting his bribes that he kept track of them on a spreadsheet. We will not tolerate this kind of fraud and abuse. Today’s sentence reflects the disgracefulness of Mr. Handa’s conduct.”
“From the day he stepped foot in Afghanistan, Mr. Handa negotiated a staggering amount of bribes from contractors in a blatant breach of the trust our military put in him. His actions brought shame to our mission, harmed our reconstruction efforts, and defrauded American taxpayers who funded the contracts he looted.”
Handa was stationed in Afghanistan only for the six months from March until November 2008 and served as the liaison to the local governor and engineers on the Kunar Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT). He helped award reconstruction project contracts to local contractors through what should have been a competitive bidding process. In fact, almost immediately on arrival in Afghanistan, he began to solicit bribes from contractors seeking large PRT construction projects.
With the help of an Afghan interpreter - who appears not to have been proscuted so far - Handa asked for 10 percent of the overall contract value, though the actual bribe payment was negotiated based on the contractor’s ability to pay. The total value of bribes contractors agreed to pay amounted to $1,323,000, and Handa and the interpreter collected $315,000, which they split evenly.
After leaving Afghanistan Handa tried to collect over $1 million in bribes that contractors had pledged to pay. A cooperating witness (CW) offered to help Handa collect the money, and through 2010 and early 2011 Handa provided him with details of outstanding bribes. It was at this point that Handa said he knew people in the drug business and he and the CW developed plans to sell kilogram quantities of heroin to Handa’s drug contacts.
However, in April this year he was arrested after a sting operation at a northern Virginia hotel. He was carrying the bribe money, a loaded handgun and a spreadsheet detailing specific bribe amounts paid and outstanding.
Case two: A former member of the US Army employed by a private security firm was arrested at Miami International Airport last week on charges of bribery, fraud and theft of government funds, in connection with the award of a contract to provide services to a US government provincial reconstruction team in Farah, Afghanistan.
Raul Borcuta was arrested when he tried to enter the United States from Europe. Immediately, the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois unsealed a nine-count indictment charging Borcuta and his co-conspirators, Zachery Taylor and Jared Close, with mail fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy, bribery and theft of government funds.
According to the indictment, Borcuta, 32, defrauded the US government in connection with a contract to provide two up-armoured sport utility vehicles to be used by an Afghan official in the government of Farah Province, Afghanistan, who had received death threats from insurgent groups.
The indictment alleges that Borcuta bribed US Army contracting officials Taylor, 40, and Close, 40, with $10,000 each to award him the contract and to make full payment to Borcuta before the vehicles were delivered. Taylor and Close, formerly US Army staff sergeants assigned to the provincial reconstruction team in Farah, allegedly authorized a payment of approximately $200,000 in US government funds to Borcuta. Borcuta received the money even though he never delivered the vehicles required by the contract.
The case is similar to another case, in Iraq, that I reported on for The Guardian involving a company called Zeroline. In that case, too, the US Army paid millions of dollars in advance for armoured vehicles that were never delivered. Still no news on whether or not those involved will be prosecuted. We are waiting.

Afghanistan's donor dependence

2011-09-21T14:51:00.000+01:00

A report from the US Government Accountability Office on Afghanistan's Donor Dependence notes that the US and other funders have provided 90 per cent of Afghanistan's public expenditures from 2006-2010. The US alone has allocated over $72 billion to its mission in Afghanistan. To put this in context, in 2010, for example, the Kabul government's entire domestic revenues - raised mostly through customs revenues and property taxes - amounted to just $1.6 billion.
With the 2014 target date for the withdrawal of US troops now only three years away, these figures raise huge questions about how the government in Kabul will fund its own security forces, who use up the lion's share of this donor income.
The report shows that Afghanistan's total public expenditure more than doubled between 2006-2010, from $5.5 billion to $14.3 billion, but that almost 80 per cent was off-budget ie donor funded. Of this, just under half (45%) was security related. Ninety per cent of all security spending was provided by the US.

Massive increase in Coalition night raids

2011-09-20T16:01:00.000+01:00

Night raids, one of the most divisive and resented tactics used by Coalition forces in Afghanistan, have skyrocketed in use, increasing five-fold between February 2009 and December 2010, according to a new report from the Open Society Foundations and The Liaison Office (an independent Afghan NGO).
This is the second report published by OSI and the Liaison Office. The first, published in February 2010, can be found here.
The new report, The Cost of Kill/Capture: Impact of the Night Raid Surge on Afghan Civilians, notes that military forces conducted an average of 19 raids a night in the three months between December 2010 and February 2011. The trend is continuing according to the report's authors and may even be increasing, with reports of up to 40 raids a night on occasion. It adds that the raids have created a massive backlash and that ISAF commanders have refused to alter their policy, although there have been some changes to procedures that have reduced property damage and led to more respectful treatment of women.
However, the report notes: "although civilian casualties have been reduced significantly, they still occur, many as a result of mistaken interpretations of 'hostile intent'."

The report recommends that ISAF and US forces should cease raids that do not discriminate between combatants and civilians, ensure such raids are not used as substitutes for criminal proceedings or other methods of intelligence gathering and that commanders should consider alternative methods of detention wherever possible.

New Afghan local police units failing - HRW

2011-09-12T17:01:00.001+01:00

Members of the newly formed Afghan Local Police

Human Rights Watch has produced a report on the growth of armed groups in Afghanistan, following the creation of the Afghan Local Police last summer. Just don't call it a Militia: Impunity, Militias, and the “Afghan Local Police" notes that "militias of all varieties have participated in murderous tribal vendettas, targeted killings, smuggling and extortion. Rapes of women, girls, and boys have been frequent." Elements of the new ALP seem to be going the same way.
The ALP was created, funded and armed by the US to supplement national security forces, particularly in remote parts of the country. Predictably, it has not quite gone that way. Such local groups quickly become attached to local warlords and power brokers and some are soon drawn into criminality or settling old scores. Nor is this the first attempt to create such a force. Already since 2001 we have had the Afghan National Auxiliary Police, Afghan Social Outreach Program forces, Community Defense Forces, Community Defense Initiative/Local Defense Initiative forcees and the Interim Security for Critical Infrastructure units.
All are based on the doctrine set out in the US Army manual on Tactics in Counter Insurgency, published in 2009. While those promoting the new ALP units argue that they have begun to deliver improvements to local security, HRW says that in the provinces it investigated there are serious problems. It recommends that irregular armed groups should be disbanded and that allegations of abuse should be investigated. An external complaints body should be created to monitor the ALP and recruits should be more closely vetted.
All worthy stuff, but will these kind of measures be any more successful than the militias themselves? I doubt it very much.

Taliban propaganda goes from strength to strength

2011-09-12T11:19:00.002+01:00

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has published a very good article by Bashir Ahmad Gwakh on the Taliban's internet strategy. "Over the past decade, the Taliban has dramatically groomed its public relations skills", he says. "It possesses several Internet domains, which host official content and have backup domains in case of an attack on the main website. Taliban members also use e-mail on a daily basis to communicate with journalists."
Gwakh's article includes comments from Abdul Sattar Maiwandi, described as the web editor of a Taliban website, who tells him that the Taliban has an official media committee and a professional production studio called al-Shahamat, set up to produce videos. "From there, the films are distributed on Taliban websites, passed from mobile phone to mobile phone, and reach broader audiences through other outlets, such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube", Gwakh says.
The Taliban uses several Twitter accounts, including @alemarahweb, which is in English and followed by around 5,500 people and rising; and @alsomood, which is mostly in Arabic. Around 450 people follow Mustafa Ahmadi, who runs the official Facebook page for the Taliban. Ahmadi also adminsters the fan page for Mullah Mohammad Omar Mujahid, the Taliban leader, which is followed by around 200 people.
Gwakh laments the fact that the Coalition forces in Afghanistan do not seem to take Taliban propaganda seriously, even though it is a vital part of their war effort. I concur with him. Three years ago I was asked to comment on the extent of Taliban propaganda and ways of confronting it. I pointed out the way the Taliban circulated video by phone and the failure to combat their messaging. My comments were ignored. Three years on and nothing much has happened except that the Taliban's messages are much more coherent, more Afghans have access to social media and very few Afghans understand what foreign forces are doing in their country.

$2 billion costs of US civilian uplift in Afghanistan

2011-09-08T17:06:00.001+01:00

When the US decided to expand its civilian presence in Afghanistan in 2009, it had little idea of how much it would cost. Now a report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has been able to answer that question.
In increasing the number of US civilians from 320 in early 2009 to 1,040 by June this year, the US has spent nearly $2 billion. It costs US taxpayers between $410,000 and $570,000 to deploy one civilian employee to Afghanistan for one year and those costs will undoubtedly rise. Remarkably this is the first time any US agency has worked out how much it costs to keep civilian staff in country.

Let's make up and be friends

2011-09-05T17:26:00.002+01:00

Younis al-Mauritani

Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations announced today the capture of three al-Qaeda members from the suburbs of Quetta, capital of Baluchistan and home to the Taliban's Quetta Shura leadership council. The most senior was Younis al-Mauritani, described in the ISPR press release as being "mainly responsible for planning and conduct of international operations", adding that he had been "personally tasked by Osama bin Laden to focus on hitting targets of economical importance in United States of America, Europe and Australia."
It said he was planning to target US economic interests including gas/oil pipelines, power generating dams and strike ships or oil tankers by using explosive-laden speed boats in international waters.
Some background on al-Mauritani can be found in this article, coincidentally published in today's edition of Spiegel Online.
ISPR also mentioned that the operation to arrest al-Mauritani - along with Abdul Ghaffar al-Shami (aka Bachar Chama) and Messara al-Shami (Mujahid Amino) - was "planned and conducted with technical assistance of United States intelligence agencies with whom Inter Services Intelligence has a strong, historic intelligence relationship".
True, but in recent months that relationship has been in tatters and is still an open wound. Giving the Pakistanis live information on important al-Qaeda suspects and allowing them to make all the running in the arrests would be a nice gesture, just to show that there are no hard feelings. Wouldn't it?

Thoughts on Afghanistan's endgame by Pak elite

2011-09-02T16:44:00.001+01:00

Pakistan's policy elite believe their state has two overriding objectives in the endgame in Afghanistan, according to a new report published jointly by Pakistan's Jinnah Institute the the United States Institute of Peace.
The first is to ensure that any settlement does not lead to instability in Pakistan, particularly amongst Pashtuns; second, to ensure that the Afghan government is not antagonistic towards Pakistan and does not allow its territory to be used against Pakistani state interests - presumably a reference to alleged Indian interference in Baluchistan.
These two objectives translate into three outcomes for the government, say the authors; first the need for stability; second, a government in Kabul that adequately represents Pashtuns and - as far as some of those questioned were concerned - includes participation by Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network; and third, a limit on India's activities in Afghanistan to ensure it is restricted to development work.
The report is based on interviews with 53 senior Pakistani figures, many of them former ambassadors or senior Army officers - all named - together with a sprinkling of journalists and academics.
Many of those questioned thought that US strategy in Afghanistan to be inconsistent and counter-productive to Pakistan's interests. "The most scathing criticism was targeted at the political component of the strategy, which is largely seen to be subservient to the military surge. Not many among the participants were optimistic about the prospects of the surge. While there was recognition that operations over the past year have degraded the Taliban’s capacity, virtually no one was convinced that this would force the main Taliban factions to negotiate on America’s terms", says the report.
Many participants recognised a dilemma for Pakistan over US policy in the region. While they argued that the US military presence exacerbated tensions and led to instability, they also felt an early US withdrawal would lead to added instability in Afghanistan. Most thought it was in Pakistan's interests for reconciliation talks to take place as quickly as possible, although they recognised that there could be no return to Taliban rule in the whole of Afghanistan. Good material in this report which casts light on a subject that is seldom aired.

Very, very, very big numbers.

2011-09-01T11:06:00.001+01:00

If you want to read where all those dollars (31 billion of them) were wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan, here is the link to the Commission on Wartime Contracting's final report to Congress. The report found that the US military has over-relied on contractors - 260,000 of them in total, sometimes outnumbering the number of regular military forces - and was "unable to provide effective management and oversight" over the $206 billion it took to pay them. Think of very big numbers, then double them lots of times and that gives you an idea of how much has gone down the Swannee.
The report also notes that between October 2001 and July 2011, 2,429 contractors were reported by their employers to have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. There were 6,131 U.S. military fatalities during the same period.

Minister's gaffe reveals IMF audit of second Afghan bank

2011-08-31T15:33:00.001+01:00

International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell's gaffe yesterday, when he was photographed carrying a document on Afghanistan as he left a National Security Council meeting in Downing Street, revealed that the British government was not unduly concerned about President Karzai leaving office in 2014.
However, less coverage was given to another point in the document's final paragraph, which reveals that there is substance to rumours that a second Afghan bank - after Kabul Bank - may be facing financial problems. This probably refers to Azizi Bank, the country's second largest financial institution, which is thought to face a shortfall of funds and for which the IMF has demanded an audit.
Below, so far as is possible, are the actual words that can be read on the document. Where Mr Mitchell's hand obscures the words, I have suggested likely candidates (in brackets).
The document itself is headed 'Protect.Policy', presumably a reference to the government's CONTEST programme for countering international terrorism, which contains four strands: Pursue, Prevent, Protect, Prepare.

"Protect Policy

Agenda item 1: Northern Ireland update
No DFID points to make

Agenda Item 2: Afghanistan Update
Points to make: We have been encouraged by the progress made by the Government of Afghanistan in recent weeks to meet IMF requirements. An IMF (team) is planning to visit Afghanistan in September to resume negotiations. We are hopeful that the Government will have demonstrated sufficient progress towards credible reforms of the financial sector, and actions to address the Kabul Bank fraud, so that a new programme can be agreed over the Autumn.

* The World Bank have told us that the suspension of UK and other donor funds to the Afghan Government will soon begin to destabilise actions essential to successful transition. To guard against this I have (agreed)....to fund critical interventions in the ARTF (Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund) investment Window (for x months) while negotiations on the new programme are (continuing. This)..... does not change our suspension of support to the Government .....costs to ensure .... leverage during IMF negotiations.

* Note that Karzai has publicly stated his intention to step down at the end of his second term as per the constitution. This is very important. It improves Afghanistan's political prospects very significantly. We should welcome Karzai's announcement in private and in public.

*(on Vice-CDS (Chief of Defence Staff) presentation). Afghan perceptions of violence are very important for their confidence in their future and for their readiness to work for the Afghan government. Have we got the strategic communications on levels of violence right?

Background
IMF programme: Although the critical reforms to the banking sector are not yet complete, we have been encouraged by the actions of the Afghanistan Government in recent weeks - for example in commencing the forensic audit on the second bank at risk. The IMF is planning to visit Afghanistan in September to take negotiations forward and we are hopeful that there will be evidence of sufficient progress from the Afghan Government to submit a new programme to the IMF board in the autumn. We are continuing to work closely with both sides for resolution."

Understanding the Pak Army offensive in Kurram

2011-08-18T18:03:00.000+01:00

A timely report from Jeffrey Dressler at the Institute for the Study of War on the Pakistan Army's current offensive in Kurram in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) says that the insurgency in Afghanistan's Eastern region is likely to benefit from the action.
Dressler explains that the action is aimed at curbing the activities of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whose supporters have been involved in the capture and murder of Shias living in the region, while giving more freedom to the Haqqani network to launch attacks into Afghanistan.
The Shias live in parts of Kurram that control access to Afghanistan, which explains why the Haqqani network - which is strongly supported by the Pakistani military - spent months negotiating a peace agreement with them so that the Shias could travel safely through surrounding Sunni areas - in exchange for transit rights for Haqqani fighters to Afghanistan. Unlike the TTP, which directs much of its activities towards the Pakistani state, the Haqqanis are oriented towards fighting in Afghanistan and rely heavily on the Pakistani Army and ISI for political and financial support. Their agreement with the Shias was put in jeopardy by the actions of local TTP commanders who continued to target Shias for purely sectarian reasons.
Dressler points out that the Pakistani military action is targeting only selected pockets of militants, while groups that have recently declared a truce with the Pakistani military or are aligned with elements of the security establishment are allowed room to expand. These include, for example, Fazal Saeed's group. Saeed - who has added the name Haqqani to his own - announced in June that he was defecting from the TTP and setting up a new organisation - see my report on this development here. He denounced the TTP for using suicide bombers to attack "mosques, markets and other civilian targets" and said he was redirecting his followers to cross the border and fight in Afghanistan.
Dressler makes it clear that the Pakistani military has little interest in curbing militancy in the region. It is simply taking on those elements of the TTP that have turned on their former mentors, solely in order to strengthen the insurgency in Afghanistan.

RAND's plans for Afghan peace talks

2011-08-18T17:20:00.000+01:00

A new report, Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer, from the RAND Corporation says that the Washington should help to appoint a figure of international repute "with the requisite impartiality, knowledge, contacts, and diplomatic skills" to take charge of putting together and then orchestrating a negotiation process with the Taliban. Afghans should be at the centre of this process, but with several concentric rings of regional and other interested governments on the periphery.
Authors James Shinn and James Dobbins point out the paradox that America's chance of getting an acceptable agreement depends on it not needing one: "Only if Washington has an acceptable non-negotiated outcome in prospect will American diplomats have much chance of securing their negotiating objectives", they say. US diplomats should prepare for two futures: one negotiated, one not. And both aimed at preventing an al-Qaeda-linked regime coming to power in the country.
If negotiations fail, American military engagement will extend well beyond 2014. However, a promise to leave by an agreed date may be the carrot that will persuade the Taliban to enter meaningful negotiations.
The report also suggests that a UN peacekeeping force might be the best way to police any negotiated settlement in order to "set a high threshold for evasion by any party of its undertakings." It says that, as in Iraq, the US must:
include former insurgents in an enlarged coalition government;
promise to 'go home';
remain heaving engaged in the implementation of whatever accord is finally reached.
The authors say that the US should seek a UN-endorsed facilitator to promote agreement between the various parties, and that Bonn - or Geneva - would be a good location for peace talks. Doha is suggested as another possible location. "We recommend that only the Afghan parties take formal part in the core negotiations over their country’s future but that all of the major external stakeholders, including India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States, conduct parallel, less formal discussions with a view to exercising convergent influence on the Afghan parties."
Not a lot new here, but coherent and well argued.

Taliban falls out with influential Noorzai tribe

2011-08-18T15:24:00.000+01:00

An interesting article by Ron Moreau of Newsweek, published on the Daily Beast website, notes that the Noorzai tribe has fallen out with the Taliban leadership over the question of money. The tribe has taken exception to the demands from the Taliban's Quetta Shura leadership that all money raised locally should pass through the centre before being distributed to regional areas.

The Noorzai are a force to be reckoned with in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The 4.5 million members of the tribe inhabit a large part of the south of Afghanistan, with significant groups in Kandahar, Kabul, Farah, Helmand, Herat and Nimroz. Eighty per cent of the population of Farah is from the Noorzai tribe while 42 per cent of the population of Helmand is Noorzai, who live in Washer, Gereshk, Garamser and Lashkar Gah. Another million live over the southern border in Baluchistan.

The dispute centres on Maulvi Habibullah, a prominent member of the Noorzai tribe. As head of a big madrassa in the largely Afghan town of Gardi Jungal in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, Habibullah is an influential pro-Taliban leader among the Afghans who live along the frontier and a major fundraiser for another Noorzai leader, Mullah Baz Mohammad, a powerful Taliban commander in the western Farah Province.

Habibullah's decision to send money to Mohammad without reference to the Quetta Shura upset Maulvi Ismael, the Taliban's military commander, who took Maulvi Habibullah prisoner. When Mullah Baz Mohammad heard about this he promptly organised the kidnapping of Maulvi Ismael, who was not released until Habibullah was freed.

At the end of all these shenanigans, says Moreau, "the incident has embarrassed the Quetta Shura’s leadership and humiliated its military council’s chief." It has also led to serious tensions between the Noorzai and the Taliban leadership which will not easily be swept under the carpet. Somewhere in the background of all this is the growing realisation amongst many Afghans that the insurgency is deteriorating into a warlord-led free-for-all, prompting memories of the terrible period in the early 90s. Then, Afghan turned on Afghan and much of Kabul was destroyed.
The Afghan tribes have always proved to be the undoing of wannabe rulers of the country. Once again it looks like the same old same old.

Insider's account of bin Laden raid

2011-08-08T17:01:00.003+01:00

Nicholas Schmidle has written a very detailed account for New Yorker magazine of the US Navy SEALs raid on Abbottabad in Pakistan in which Osama bin Laden was killed on the night of 1-2 May. His largely uncritical account includes some interesting details, including the fact that this was not the first time that the SEALs had crossed the border into Pakistan from Afghanistan. In fact, he says, they "had surreptitiously entered the country on ten to twelve previous occasions", mostly into north or south Waziristan, as they attempted to capture/kill bin Laden - who was known to the Joint Special Operations Command by the codename 'Crankshaft'.
How did Schmidle - who was expelled from Pakistan in 2008 without explanation - get such incredible access to both planners and participants, allowing him to write this insider's account of the raid? The fact that his father is Richard Schmidle, a lieutenant general in US Special Operations and now deputy commander for US Cyber Command, probably helped.

Excellent explanation of Pakistan-US tensions

2011-08-07T17:05:00.000+01:00

The clearest explanation I have read so far of the spat between Pakistan and the USA, written by Sebastian Abbot, Kathy Gannon and Kimberly Dozier and published by AP last Wednesday, was followed only by the Washington Times and Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.
It reveals that the US Ambassador to Islamabad phoned Washington in an urgent attempt to get the CIA to call off a drone strike on 17 March, the day following the release of CIA contractor Raymond Davies. Cameron Munter believed the attack would further inflame already strained ties with Islamabad.
In the event the attack was approved by CIA director Leon Panetta , resulting in the death of around 40 people. The CIA said they were all militants, but strong evidence from the region suggests a local jirga, set up to discuss a mining dispute, was attacked.
Other attacks followed, many of which seemed timed to cause maximum embarrassment to both countries.
As predicted, relations deteriorated very rapidly and were only set back on course again recently with the removal of the second Pakistan CIA station chief within six months. An excellent article.

Abdullah Anas to represent High Peace Council in Europe - report

2011-08-03T22:24:00.001+01:00

Abdullah Anas

Pajhwok Afghan News is reporting that Abdullah Anas - a good friend - is likely to become the Afghan High Peace Council's representative in Europe.
They say Burhanuddin Rabbani, former Afghan president and currently leader of the 67-member High Peace Council, has told associates on the council that he wants to hire Anas.
Anas, who fought against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan, is the son-in-law of Abdullah Azzam, the renowned Palestinian theorist of jihad who formed the Maktab al-Khidamat (MAK) organisation in Peshawar, which became the main organising centre for Arabs fighting against the Soviets. Azzam was murdered in Peshawar in 1989, along with two of his sons.
Anas, who is Algerian by birth, but who has British nationality, also worked for MAK alongside Osama bin Laden and other Arabs, but fell out with him when bin Laden decided to form al-Qaeda. Anas formed a close relationship with Ahmad Shah Massoud during the anti-Soviet jihad and has retained strong links with his family and other figures in the Panjshir Valley. It is also rumoured that he has played a behind-the-scenes role in recent attempts to negotiate with the Taliban. More on this soon.

How aid ends up financing mansions in Dubai

2011-07-20T23:03:00.002+01:00

A new report from the US Office of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) looks in detail at the scandal of large US currency exports from Afghanistan - mostly to private bank accounts in the Gulf - and shows that efforts to safeguard US cash entering the Afghan economy have been hampered by ineffective coordination, inconsistent Afghan cooperation and insufficient cash controls.
This is not a new problem, but it has not been investigated very thoroughly in the past. The same problem dogged US operations in Iraq, where billions of dollars simply disappeared.
SIGAR says US agencies cannot easily follow what happens to cash dollars that enter Afghanistan, with the possibility (and likelihood) that much of it is being stolen or, in some cases, diverted to the Taliban.
“The United States has poured billions of aid dollars into a country plagued by corruption, insurgency and the narcotics trade. It is essential that we use all available tools to ensure that US dollars are protected from fraud and diversion to the insurgency. We must also ensure that the Afghan government is a full partner in efforts to set a fledgling financial sector on sound footing,” said Herbert Richardson, acting head of SIGAR, when launching the report today.
He pointed out that the Afghan government has not cooperated with US officials to build a strong and clean financial sector.
SIGAR says that since 2002 the US Congress has appropriated more than $70 billion to implement security and development assistance in Afghanistan. Although only a small proportion of this ends up as cash in the Afghan economy, tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars - SIGAR does not give a figure - very quickly leaves the country in suitcases destined for foreign bank accounts.
A recent report published by Spiegel Online found that many of the most expensive properties in Dubai have been bought by Afghans with close connections to the government.
Vulnerabilities identified by SIGAR's auditors include failing to record serial numbers of cash given out to contractors and other recipients of US funds and the failure of Afghan commercial banks to record the serial numbers of Electronic Funds Transfer payments by US agencies to contractors when they are converted to cash.
The report notes that the Afghan Attorney General's office has not cooperated fully in prosecuting individuals suspected of having committed financial crimes; out of 21 leads forwarded by FinTRACA to the Afghan government, only four were prosecuted. President Karzai has even prevented US government advisers from gaining access to the Central Bank, where the atmosphere is described as "hostile".

Oh, and thanks for all those killings...

2011-07-19T18:54:00.001+01:00

Inspire's tribute to Hakimullah

The sixth edition of al-Qaeda's English-language magazine, Inspire contains a full-page tribute to Pakistan Taliban boss Hakimullah Mahsud, thanking the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan "for taking revenge on behalf of Shaykh Usama bin Ladin".
Hakimullah, however, is very unlikely to see this tribute. He has not been heard of for months and is presiding in name only over an organisation that is riven with splits and turning on itself. Fearing a drone attack similar to the one that killed his predecessor, Baitullah Mahsud, he is hidden and silent.
The "revenge" mentioned in the tribute presumably refers to the mass-casualty suicide bombs the TTP lets off in public places in Pakistan with monotonous (and bloody) regularity. Some people say that Inspire is slick. Sick would be more accurate.

Cowper-Coles book offers fascinating diplomatic insights

2011-07-19T17:19:00.001+01:00

I've started to read Cables from Kabul: the Inside story of the West's Afghanistan Campaign, by Britain's former ambassador, Sherard Cowper-Coles, who was in post from 2007-2010. I will write a fuller assessment of the book when I have finished it, but already it is clear that it is stuffed with fascinating material. He discusses the frustration of the British system for diplomatic staff of 'six weeks on, followed by a two-week breather', saying "Sometimes, in despair, learning that some member of the team had just disappeared 'on breather', I would feel I was running a railway station rather than an embassy".
Describing running the British embassy, he says: "Mostly, however, it was more like being the headmaster of a run-down but generally happy and successful prep school, or the governor of an open prison whose inmates were repaying their debt to society handsomely and many times over. None of us doubted that, compared with our rivals - the overlarge and persistently unhappy American Embassy, the Canadians, the French, the Germans, the Danes and the Dutch, plus a UN mission almost always at war with itself - we were by far the most effective diplomatic operation in town. We knew more, did more, worked harder and had more fun than any of the other Embassies."
Rivals? I thought we were all in it together! More of this fascinating book anon.

Taliban still mostly killing civilians with its IEDs

2011-07-14T15:53:00.000+01:00

Conflict-related civilian deaths in Afghanistan increased by 15 per cent increase in the first six months of 2011, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) which today released its 2011 Mid-year Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict.
UNAMA said the dramatic growth was mainly due to the use of landmine-like pressure plate improvised explosive devices (IEDs) by what it calls Anti-Government Elements (AGEs) - ie the Taliban.
UNAMA documented 1,462 civilian deaths in the period, with 80 per cent attributed to AGEs, an increase of 28 percent in civilian deaths linked to AGEs from the same period in 2010. A further 14 per cent of civilian deaths were attributed to Pro-Government Forces (PGF), down nine per cent from the same period in 2010. Six per cent of civilian deaths could not be attributed to any party to the conflict.
With 368 civilian deaths, May 2011 was the deadliest month for Afghan civilians since UNAMA began documenting civilian casualties in 2007. In June 2011, a further 360 civilian deaths were recorded.
June also saw an all-time high in the number of security incidents in a single month and the highest-ever number of IED attacks recorded in a one-month period.
“Afghan children, women and men continue to be killed and injured at an alarming rate,” said Staffan de Mistura, Special Representative for the Secretary General.
IEDs and suicide attacks accounted for 49 per cent of all civilian deaths and injuries in the first six months of 2011. Civilian deaths from IEDs increased 17 per cent over the same period in 2010, making IEDs, with 444 victims, the single largest killer of Afghan civilians in the first half of 2011 and causing 30 per cent of all civilian deaths.
Air strikes remained the leading cause of Afghan civilian deaths by Pro-Government Forces, with an increasing proportion resulting from attacks by helicopters. In the first six months of 2011, 79 Afghan civilians were killed by air strikes, a 14 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2010. Forty-four of the total 79 civilian deaths were from helicopter attacks.
Civilian deaths from ground combat and armed clashes in the first half of 2011 increased by 36 per cent compared to the same period in 2010 while two per cent of all civilian casualties occurred as a result of night raids, down slightly from the first half of 2010. UNAMA documented 30 civilian deaths during night raid operations in the first six months of 2011.

The Haqqani network - the fountainhead of jihad

2011-07-14T15:27:00.000+01:00

A new report from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point on the Haqqani Network - The Haqqani Nexus and the Evolution of al-Qa'ida - argues that this family-based jihadi network both protected and shaped al-Qaeda from its earliest days and allowed bin Laden's organisation to aspire towards global jihad.
While carefully avoiding any direct association with international terror organisations, the Haqqani Network has been unwilling to disengage from al-Qaeda and has aided its growth onto the world arena. "By shedding new light on the history of al-Qa’ida, this report also tells us that al-Qa’ida and the Haqqani network, and not the Quetta Shura Taliban, became the United States’ primary enemies on 11 September 2001," say authors Don Rassler and Vahid Brown.
To date, the history of al-Qaeda has been understood in terms of the its outgrowth from the Maktab al-Kidamat organisation in Peshawar under the auspices of Abdullah Azzam. This approach, say the authors, fails to take into account the important connections between al-Qaeda's leaders and the Haqqani clan. "The scholarly and policy community have misapprehended the precise local context for the development of global jihadism - a context to be found in the Haqqanis' Paktia and not Azzam's Peshawar - and have underestimated the Haqqani network's critical role in sustaining cycles of violence far beyond its region of overt influence."
They argue that the ties between the Haqqani network and al-Qaeda have remained just as close since 9/11 under Sirajuddin Haqqani's command as they were prior to that when under the control of his father, Jalauddin. Sirajuddin continues to play an important role as a mediator - between the Pakistani ISI and the various factions of the Tehreek-e-Taliban, between the TTP and local Shias in Kurram and even between the Iranian state and al-Qaeda. In this latter case it is suggested that in 2010 he helped to secure the release of a top Iranian diplomat in exchange for several al-Qaeda commanders, including Saif al-Adel.
The authors point out the paradox of the fact that while the Haqqani network has functioned as Islamabad's proxy in Afghanistan, it has also served as al-Qaeda's local enabler for more than 20 years.
They say that even though the Pakistanis have in the past offered up the Haqqani network as a way of ending the conflict in Afghanistan, the organisation is unlikely to disengage from its relationship with al-Qaeda and other jihadist organisations: "Positioned between two unstable states, and operating beyond their effective sovereignty, the Haqqani network has long been mistaken for a local actor with largely local concerns. It is vital that the policy community correct the course that has taken this erroneous assessment for granted and recognize the Haqqani network’s region of refuge for what it has always been – the fountainhead of jihad."

FATA still attracting Western Islamists

2011-07-08T15:27:00.000+01:00

A new edition of Paul Cruickshank's paper The Militant Pipeline Between the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Region and the West has been published by the New America Foundation. It looks at 32 'serious' jihadist terrorist plots against the West between 2004 and 2011 and shows that 53 per cent of them had operational or training links to established jihadist groups in Pakistan, compared to just six per cent having connections to the Yemen.
Between January 2009 and June 2011 there were seven serious plots against the West in which those involved were trained or directed from groups in Pakistan, and just two that linked to the Yemen.
This new report looks at five new cases studies not included in the original version, including the failed Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad, the 2010 Hamburg cell, the alleged Norway cell, Najibullah Zazi's New York group and the Manchester plotters. It also gives a detailed breakdown by country of known militants moving from Europe to Pakistan for training and makes the point that Germany has seen a particularly alarming rise in travel flows to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
An average of five people a month left Germany to try to receive training in the tribal areas of Pakistan. In contrast US counterterrorism officials believe fewer American extremists appear to have travelled to Pakistan in 2010 and early 2011 than in 2009.
However Cruickshank notes that the CIA drone campaign is having an impact on foreign fighters, many of whom have been killed in missile strikes, although it has not yet staunched the flow of Westerners travelling to the tribal areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the report is the case history of Rami Makanesi, a member of the Hamburg jihadist group, who provided a 180-page account of his time in FATA to German security police following his deportation from Pakistan to Germany in September 2010.
Makanesi describes the paranoia of the al-Qaeda operatives he met about both the drone campaign and about spies. He says he came across Lebanese, Algerians, Kuwaitis, Turks, Tajiks and French militants of North African descent. In Mir Ali, in North Waziristan he was able to procure lodgings for five Euros a month and was easily able to obtain money sent from Germany. He kept in touch with his family in Germany via internet cafes.
He said the largest contingent of foreign militants in Mir Ali were Turks, of whom there were 100-150. There were also around 100 'Tatars' in the town and less than a dozen Arabs. During the summer fighting season in Afghanistan, the town almost emptied of foreign fighters, who made their way across the border with little hindrance from local Pakistani Army patrols.
He concludes: "Despite growing concern over Yemen, the tribal areas of Pakistan remain al Qaeda’s number one safe haven and the most threatening to the West as a whole."

Using the Taliban's own rules to challenge its actions

2011-07-05T18:22:00.001+01:00

Kate Clark of the Afghanistan Analysts Network has published another of her insightful reports, this time into the Taliban's code of conduct (Layha in Pashto), using the much updated code to gain an insight into the organisation itself.
The Layha: Calling the Taliban to Account notes that the first version of the code appeared in 2006 as an attempt to consolidate the movement, inspire fighters and to curb their excesses. In the background was the fact that the organisation's image was being tarnished by corruption and abuse.
Later versions of the code, published in 2009 and 2010 illustrate the leadership's fears of fragmentation, concerns about the uncontrolled killing of suspected spies and the exploitation of jihad for criminal or material gain.
Clark notes that some clauses, such as those that permit kidnapping, are contrary to international law, while others, if applied, could reduce civilian suffering in the conflict. Added to this is the fact that the code is not enforced in some areas and attacks on civilians, for example, continue unabated.
However, civilian unhappiness with some of the clauses has led to revisions. For example, the 2006 version called on mujahideen to beat and kill recalcitrant teachers and burn their schools and have nothing to do with NGOs. These clauses were dropped in later editions.
Clark argues that the Taliban is very sensitive to charges that it violates its own code and often kills civilians. Journalists, she says, could find the Layha useful in helping to frame questions to put to the Taliban, for example in asking for explanations of fines issued by the Taliban, of ransom demands for prisoners or of attacks that kill civilians. She says it is important to ask more from the Taliban in terms of conduct that conforms with international human rights law.

Pakistan Taliban begins to break up

2011-07-05T16:12:00.000+01:00

The leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban, Hakimullah Mahsud, has been isolated for much of the last year and is rapidly losing control of his organisation, according to news reports from Pakistan.
A report in the Express Tribune, for example, notes that there was a large split from the organisation recently, when Fazal Saeed Haqqani - in charge of the TTP in the Kurram tribal region - announced that he was leaving the organisation, along with around 1,000 of his fighters. Haqqani said he was opposed to the killing of civilians. The TTP has killed hundreds of civilians in a series of indiscriminate bombings throughout Pakistan in the last two years.
Just days before, Shakirullah Shakir, the main spokesman for the TTP's Fidayeeen-e-Islam suicide squad, was gunned down in in the Qutab Khail area of Miranshah in North Waziristan while riding his motorcycle to Mir Ali. No-one claimed responsibility for the targetted killing, but it is likely that the two events are connected. Shakir was a close aide to Qari Hussein Mahsud, the TTP's main organiser of suicide bombings.
Haqqani said he had decided to form a new organisation called Tehreek-e-Taliban Islami that will concentrate on fighting in Afghanistan: "“I repeatedly told the leadership council of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan that they should stop suicide attacks against mosques, markets and other civilian targets,” Haqqani told the AFP news agency by telephone.
“Islam does not allow killings of innocent civilians in suicide attacks,” he said, likening what TTP does in Pakistan to “what US troops are doing in Afghanistan” and vowing to continue the fight alone against the Americans.
There have also been reports of fighting between TTP factions in Khyber and Orakzai districts in recent weeks.

Afghanistan Conflict Monitor ceases publication

2011-07-05T13:48:00.000+01:00

Sad news: the Afghanistan Conflict Monitor and its sister publication the Pakistan Conflict Monitor have ceased publication. A note from the publishers - the Simon Fraser University-funded Human Security Report Project in Vancouver, Canada - says "As a result of staffing constraints, changes in media reporting on Afghanistan and Pakistan, and a shift in our strategic priorities, we have decided to discontinue the Afghanistan and Pakistan Conflict Monitors. As a consequence, we will no longer be producing the Daily Briefing, or updating the websites.
"Instead of continuing to feature news stories, which are increasingly well covered by other online news media like Foreign Policy's “AfPak Channel,” we will be focussing on more in-depth research and policy material from governments, researchers, and major NGOs. These resources can be found on our research portal, the Human Security Gateway."

UN's first quarterly report on Afghanistan

2011-06-30T15:27:00.000+01:00

The first of a series of quarterly reports on the situation in Afghanistan has been issued by the UN Security Council. It covers the period from 9 March this year up to the end of June - a period that saw a 51 per cent increase in security incidents compared to the same period last year. There were 17 suicide attacks in April - a higher number than in any month in 2010.

A quarter of all attacks and more than half of all assassinations took place in the city of Kandahar. The report also provides an account of the attack on a UN compound in Mazar-e-Sharif on 1 April during which three international UN staff and four international guards were killed.

It notes the attack in Kandahar on 7 May during which 488 political prisoners - most of them Taliban supporters - escaped. The report takes special note of large demonstrations protesting against ISAF activities: "This kind of civil unrest, which is indicative of wider public discontent, marks a departure from the previous sporadic demonstrations against the international civil and military presence and raises serious concern, given the possibility of orchestrated violent rioting against the international community."

The report's review of political developments attempts to make the most of the very meagre political advances, including the tiny number of former Taliban members signing up for reintegration programmes.

UNAMA documented 1,090 deaths and 1,860 injuries of Afghan civilians during these three months, an increase of 20 per cent on last year, with "anti-government elements" linked to 80 per cent of these casualties. Most people were hit by IED explosions. Pro-government forces also caused damage and deaths to civilians through the use of air strikes and night raids.

The UN's extensive interest in women's rights has not stopped Afghan women from being punished for running away from home to flee persecution or forced marriage. Most women who run away are charged with adultery and the Supreme Court has recently upheld convictions of women victims of rape for the crime of adultery. Women can be sentenced to 15 years in prison if convicted. There are 650 women in prison in Afghanistan, along with 280 minors.

Many journalists in Afghanistan feel threatened, both from the Taliban and from pro-government factions and religious figures. The 16-page report also includes useful information on the transition towards Afghan security responsibility, governance, humanitarian assistance and counter-narcotics. It closes with a statement from the Secretary-General.

Jamil Ahmad's triumphant debut

2011-06-28T13:40:00.000+01:00

Jamil Ahmad's The Wandering Falcon (Hamish Hamilton, London, 2011) is a remarkable book on traditional Pashtun society that should be compulsory reading for anyone studying this area. Written as a series of interlinked stories about an orphaned boy - Tor Baz, the black falcon - it brings the reader as close to the forbidden lands of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border as is possible. Its alternating tenderness and tragedy pulls at the heart strings to paint a picture of this brutal society. Nothing in literature comes near to his description, for example, of a meeting between a young political officer (possibly the author himself?) and members of the Bhittani tribe, who live on the borders of the much more powerful Mahsuds in South Waziristan.
The publishers, I hope, will forgive me if I quote a paragraph in full from this achingly beautiful book:

"The Mahsuds, because they always hunt in groups, are known as the wolves of Waziristan. A Wazir hunts alone. He is known as the 'leopard' to other men. Despite their differences, the two tribes share more than merely their common heritage of poverty and misery. Nature has bred in both an unusual abundance of anger, enormous resilience and a total refusal to accept their fate. If nature provides them food for only ten days in a year, they believe in their right to demand the rest of their sustenance from their fellow men who live oily, fat and comfortable lives in the plains. To both tribes, survival is the ultimate virtue. In neither community is any stigma attached to a hired assassin, a thief, a kidnapper or an informer. And then, both are totally absorbed in themselves. They have no doubt in their minds that they occupy centre stage, while the rest of the world acts out minor roles or watches them as spectators - as befits inferior species."

Jamil Ahmad, now 80, is very well qualified to write this book. He spent his life in the Pakistan Civil Service, serving in the old Frontier Province and in Baluchistan. He served in Quetta, Chaghi, Khyber and Malakand and was later commissioner in Dera Ismail Khan and in Swat, as well as becoming chairman of the Tribal Development Corporation. He was Pakistan's ambassador in Kabul before, during and after the Soviet invasion in 1979 and finished his career as Chief Secretary in Baluchistan.

Syed Shahzad's informative but flawed final work

2011-06-26T12:21:00.001+01:00

Abducted and murdered in Pakistan in May by persons as yet unknown, Syed Saleem Shahzad was a remarkable journalist. Over many years while reporting for Asian Times Online he had won the trust of elements of the Pakistan Taliban and even of al-Qaeda. Ilyas Kashmiri, the former Pakistan Army captain who had formed al-Qaeda's 313 Brigade and Shadow Army (Lashkar-e-Zil) and who was behind many of that organisation's most devastating attacks in Pakistan, gave Shahzad his one and only published interview, along with other important figures from the jihadist movement who refused to speak to anyone else.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the most significant Afghan guerrilla faction, and Qari Ziaur Rehman - another important guerrilla commander and al-Qaeda recruit - both spoke to Shahzad. His access was legendary and he broke many important stories.
His posthumously published book, Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond bin Laden and 9/11 (Pluto Press, London, 2011), contains much new material and is chiefly important for the insight it provides into the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai. Shahzad explains this as a Pakistani intelligence operation that was hijacked by al-Qaeda, or at least a number of former Pakistani Army officers who had allied themselves with al-Qaeda.
Principal amongst these was Major Haroon Ashik, also a former Lashkar-e-Toiba commander, whose intention was to provoke war between India and Pakistan and hence force Pakistan to move troops from anti-guerrilla actions along the Afghan border. Major Haroon was recently named in the US trial of David Headley and Tahawwur Rana. He is now believed to be in prison in Adiala, Pakistan where he is facing abduction charges.
It was Haroon who also came up with the strategy of attacking NATO convoys in Pakistan in an attempt to strangle the Coalition forces in Afghanistan by cutting off their supplies.
Shahzad's book also outlines in detail the way al-Qaeda has burrowed into the Pashtun tribes along the Afgthan-Pakistan border and attempted to break down the old tribal structures and subvert them to its own goals. This is undoubtedly true and one day will be seen by the Pashtuns as their greatest mistake and greatest tragedy.
However, the book is marred in two major respects.
First, it has not been edited and is very repetitive and contains a mountain of irrelevant material. In addition, the book is incomplete - for example, it only contains footnotes for the first three chapters. Considering Shahzad's untimely death this can perhaps be forgiven.
The second weakness is more substantial. Shahzad seems to have fallen for much of al-Qaeda's propaganda. He offers few criticisms and sees the last five years as an unbroken chain of success after success. He refers to the devastating drone attacks that have wiped out most of the al-Qaeda leadership in FATA, but still believes they are on the verge of driving the Coalition forces out of Afghanistan. He suggests that al-Qaeda has subsumed both the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban beneath its black banner and dominates them politically, militarily and ideologically.
Shahzad thinks 2012 will be the year of victory for al-Qaeda, but couches it in the language of mystical Islam. In some ways we should thank him for exposing the wackiness that is at the heart of al-Qaeda's misbegotten form of Islam, even if he appears to have succumbed to it himself. You need look no further than the last couple of paragraphs of the book to see this:
"Al-Qaeda's next aim is to occupy the promised land of ancient Khurasan, with its boundaries stretching from all the way from Central Asia to Khyber Paktoonkhwa, through Afghanistan and then expand the theatre of war to India.
"The promised Messiah, the Mahdi, will then rise in the Middle East and al-Qaeda will mobilise its forces from Ancient Khurasan for the liberation of Palestine, where a final victory will guarantee the revival of a Global Muslim Caliphate."
That is literally Shahzad's conclusion. No word here of the Arab Spring and the rejection by the Arab Street of Islam as a vehicle for revolution. He sees al-Qaeda's predicted success as the fulfilment of an ancient religious prophesy. But while this messianism at the heart of al-Qaeda's religious philosophy is something that has not received the attention it deserves, it also firmly puts that organisation into the camp of failed revolutions and crackpot religious fantasies. It is only a pity that an astute and well informed writer like Shahzad should fail to see the essential idiocy of such thinking. Roll on 2012.

Critique of targeted killings in Afghanistan

2011-06-15T18:29:00.001+01:00

Zabet Amanullah, killed in error by US forces

Kate Clark of the Afghanistan Analysts Network has written an excellent analysis of the alleged killing by Coalition forces of the Taliban deputy shadow governor of Takhar in September 2010. She claims, with plenty of evidence, that the person killed - along with nine other people - was in fact Zabet Amanullah, a former Taliban fighter who had laid down his weapons in 2001.

Clark's report, The Takhar Attack, which was published in May, says "The findings of this investigation raise systemic concerns over the intelligence that drives this and other targeted killings in Afghanistan." She adds that her investigation demonstrates the danger of relying on signals intelligence and social network analysis, "particularly when it is used as a basis for targeted killings, without cross‐checking and in the virtual absence of human intelligence and, indeed in this case, without even the ordinary common knowledge to be had from watching election coverage on television."

Questions of faith in Pakistan

2011-06-15T16:33:00.001+01:00

The Jinnah Institute, a Pakistan-based think tank that promotes peace and fundamental rights, has published a report on the status of religious minorities in the country. A Question of Faith asks whether Pakistan will continue to discriminate against its citizens on the basis of religion and whether or not the majority of Pakistanis will continue to condone and collude in the discrimination and persecution of minorities. You can find a full copy of the report here.

Prospects for Bonn Conference 2

2011-06-14T14:55:00.002+01:00

Abbas Daiyar, who writes the excellent Kabul Perspective blog, has written an excellent piece on the prospects for Bonn Conference 2, due to be held in December. His posting, The Dark Clouds, notes that Germany, as host, is trying to ensure a Taliban presence at the conference and that the US and the Taliban are now reportedly in direct contact. He says Pakistan is also saying it can guarantee the presence of the Haqqani network and that things look like they are shaping up for an announcement of a political settlement to hostilities in Afghanistan.
Daiyar says talk of a Karzai-mediated settlement is anathema to many of the warlords, such as General Dostum, Ismail Khan, Ata Mohammad Noor, Ahmad Zia Masoud and others, who appear to be in the process of creating a grand alliance to ensure they have a voice at the conference and negotiations. None of them trust Karzai or believe that he represents them. As Daiyar says: "Before the Taliban come to an agreement with the international community, it's important that they should come to an understanding with Afghans who resisted them for years; otherwise it's no solution to the conflict. The international troops have already announced withdrawal by 2014. They are not the problem for Taliban; rather the bigger challenges are internal in Afghanistan. The ineffective Peace Council should also bear in mind that it's not only the international community having problems with Taliban, but more serious problems with Taliban are from inside Afghanistan."
Daiyar wants conference organisers to make sure all factions of Afghan society, including women, are represented and that Afghans should be able to discuss the "fault lines" of the current system.
Thomas Ruttig of the Afghan Analysts Network has also been writing on similar themes. As he notes:
"They do not need a Karzai-Taleban deal that opens the exit door for foreign troops, they need an end of the bloodshed that will also physically reopen spaces for economic and political(!) activities, a debate about where their country is going. A deal which does not address main causes of the conflict (namely the monopoly over power of resources concentrated in the hands of a small elite, then possibly with some additional Taleban players) will not bring peace. Therefore, the ‘political process’ (the euphemism for talking to the Taleban in the programme of the Bonn conference) needs to involve a representative cross-section of Afghan society, including former anti-Taleban mujahedin, the ethnic minorities that have suffered most under the Taleban yoke and what usually is called civil society, including the women constituency, another main victim of past Taleban rule." Wise words.

Senate analysis of US aid spending in Afghanistan

2011-06-09T11:45:00.001+01:00

In the last ten years the United States has spent around $18.8 billion in foreign aid to Afghanistan, excluding military costs and counter-narcotics programmes. Today it is spending - mostly through USAID - around $320 million a month. Eighty per cent of this money is being spent in the south and east of the country on short-term stabilisations programmes instead of longer term development projects, even though the evidence that such programmes promote stability is very limited. In fact, some research suggests the opposite.
These are some of the findings of a US Senate Foreign Relations Committee report, Evaluating US Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan, chaired by Sen. John Kerry.
Based on two years' research, the report contains some useful information. It points out, for example, that annual staff turnover at USAID in Kabul is more than 85 per cent and that an estimated 97 per cent of Afghanistan's GDP comes from the international military and donor community. Lots more stuff in here (and in the minority report) for policy wonks.

$60 million class action against Blackwater

2011-06-08T17:20:00.004+01:00

No-one can say for sure how many civilian contractors have been killed or injured in Afghanistan. A rough guide can be obtained from the US Department of Labor, which publishes figures on the number of compensation claims for contractor deaths abroad. According to this measure, 763 contractors employed by US companies were killed in Afghanistan between 1 September 2001 and 31 March 2011. Another 4,729 were seriously injured.
Even if they are not killed or injured, many of these contractors are not well looked after by their employers, as indicated by a lawsuit filed yesterday in Washington DC. Washington-based lawyer Scott J Bloch filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of four former security specialists who were injured while working for the notorious Blackwater Industries company, in order to recover their payment of social security, unemployment insurance, and unpaid benefits and state and local withholding and unemployment insurance, and other unspecified damages.
The action, which seeks $60 million in damages and punitive damages, has been brought on their own behalf and thousands of others who have worked for Blackwater, now known as Xe Services.
“These brave individuals who worked in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Afghani Enduring Freedom, deserve better than to be turned away without health insurance, pension benefits, unemployment benefits, and other withholding afforded to Blackwater’s other employees,” said Scott Bloch yesterday.
Since 2007, Blackwater has employed over 10,000 people in Iraq and Afghanistan under lucrative US government contracts, including many former armed services veterans. The lawsuit says Blackwater sought to avoid millions of dollars in taxes, withholding, and payments of benefits to these employees by classifying them improperly as independent contractors.
The suit also states that one of the representative plaintiffs already had a determination from the IRS that Blackwater misclassified him as an independent contractor. "The IRS already determined in the case of one of my clients that he should have been classified as an employee," said Bloch. “Now thousands of people will have to file amended returns. Thousands of people will likely be entitled to benefits they were denied due to the misclassification, including payment of their employer share of pension, health and disability insurance premiums, and other plans that Blackwater filed with the government for its employees, promising it would not discriminate against those employees as they did here.”
The suit also claims that the US Congress had previously held hearings which determined that Blackwater and its related companies misclassified employees in order to avoid millions of dollars in taxes.
The case was filed in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia and covers individuals from all over the United States and some Americans living abroad, including all former and current Blackwater and Xe employees and so-called independent contractors.

Ilyas Kashmiri's big mistake

2011-06-07T21:30:00.001+01:00

How was it that Ilyas Kashmiri, the much-feared commander of al-Qaeda's 313 Brigade - so-named after the 313 companions that stood at the Prophet's side at the Battle of Badr - came to be killed, along with seven others in an orchard south of Wana in South Waziristan last week (see below)?
According to some reports, Kashmiri was discussing what al-Qaeda and its allies should do in the event of a Pakistani incursion into neighbouring North Waziristan. Pakistan's military has been under American pressure for months to launch attacks against the notorious Haqqani network and its supporters in North Waziristan, from where they launch attacks on Coalition forces in Afghanistan. Significant elements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan from the Mahsud tribe who were formerly based in South Waziristan are also sheltering there, ever since they were chased out of their traditional tribal lands in a 2009 army offensive.
Kashmiri had only been in the district a few hours when he was killed in a targeted drone strike. Hardly surprising really; his very presence in South Waziristan was a threat to a 2007 peace agreement between the Ahmadzai Wazirs and the government under which the tribe agreed not to attack Pakistani forces or to allow foreign militants into their district. The Waziris had previously risen up against the Arabs and many Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who had settled amongst them and who had become notorious for their cruelty. More than 200 Uzbeks were killed by the Waziris and the survivors were forced north, where they were given shelter by other Pashtun tribes.
As recently as March this year the nine clans of the Ahmadzai Waziris agreed to stick to the terms of the 2007 treaty, although the local district officers were pushing for it to be made tougher on the tribes.
So when Ilyas Kashmiri, a former Pakistani army officer who was reknowned for his brutality and who was certainly involved in serious attacks on the Pakistani armed forces - including the recent attack on the PNS Mehran naval base - arrived in the district, trouble was likely to follow.
Kashmiri was staying at the home of a tribesman known to be a supporter of Maulvi Nazir, an Ahmadzai Wazir and leader of the local chapter of the Tehreek-e-Taliban. Nazir had also signed the 2007 peace deal, but is known to be sympathetic to both al-Qaeda and the TTP.
However, other tribesmen in the area are unlikely to have taken such a sympathetic attitude towards Kashmiri, correctly realising that his presence would only bring further trouble to the area, particularly if he was the part of an advance guard of Punjabis and foreign fighters fleeing an army offensive further north. It would not have been long before someone reported his location to the military authorities. And they in turn, anxious to provide proof to the Americans that they are serious about fighting terrorism, and also determined to settle scores with a perceived turncoat, tipped off the CIA.

Graft and corruption in Pakistan military - audit report

2011-06-06T10:35:00.000+01:00

The accounts of Pakistan's armed forces show "massive financial irregularities" totalling Rs56.5 billion ($660 million), according to the 2011 annual report of the Auditor General of Pakistan.
The report says irregularities occurred due to negligence, ineffective internal controls, embezzlement and misuse of authority by officers of the armed forces.
Around 330 contract agreements were concluded from 2008 to 2010 without following the procedure laid down in the Public Procurement Rules 2004, the auditors observed.
When they pointed out irregularities, the executive stated that the ministry's instructions were only received in June 2010. The auditors said that the reply is not tenable.
Auditors found that the Pakistan Army blocked Rs3 billion in funds due to unnecessary procurement and inappropriate storage of 1,385 new vehicles at the Central Ordnance Depot in Karachi. The vehicles have not been used for the last three years.
The report discovered excess transfer of funds to the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) for procurement of bullet-proof jackets. Out of the Rs424.2 million allocated for them, the FWO has to refund some Rs385 million in addition to the loss it incurred on account of risk and expense contracts after the supplier, Musterhaft Pvt Ltd, failed to provide more than 1,000 jackets.
Money spent on building material for renovation is unaccounted for and amounts to Rs52.7 million in Kharian, Sialkot and Lahore cantonments. The auditors say there was no proof that repair work was carried out. Irregularities in purchase of pre-fabricated accommodation for UN missions amounted to Rs92 million while another Rs14.6 million was erroneously paid over as General Sales Tax, which needs to be recovered from the supplier.
Irregularities totalling Rs6 billion surfaced in the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra while the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) lost Rs102 million due to non-recovery of five per cent rent on flying allowance from General Duty Pilots over the past 20 years. Auditors asked for the paperwork but it was refused and they observed that this amounts to blatant disobedience and ineffectual administration. Failure to deposit rent in the government treasury caused a loss of Rs14.6 million by the PAF Academy, Risalpur.
The navy failed to transfer 50 per cent accommodation charges paid by foreign trainees to the government treasury, resulting in the loss of $65,516. Auditors also observed that Rs6 million incurred on excess issue of food items in PNS Bahadur and PNS Mehran for the year 2009-10 needs to be reimbursed. An amount of Rs76 million has still not been recovered after unauthorised payments to re-employed officers of the Pakistan Navy in 2009-10 were unearthed.
Military Lands and Cantonment inflicted a loss of Rs181 million to the cantonment fund due to irregularities in awarding leases. The Cantonment Board in Lahore lost Rs30 million due to its failure to revise the tax rate on immovable property. Fraud and embezzlement caused a loss of Rs68 million to the Cantonment Board in Rawalpindi in 2008. Failure to recover Rs97 million in dues added to the losses incurred by various boards.

Another blow for al-Qaeda as Kashmiri is killed

2011-06-05T15:19:00.001+01:00

Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri pictured in July 2001

"On behalf of Harkat Jihad al-Islami 313 Brigade we confirm the fact that our leader and commander-in-chief Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri, along with other companions, have been martyred in an American drone attack at 11:15 pm on June 3, 2011 and Insha Allah (God willing) the present pharoah America will see our full revenge very soon. Our only target is America.
Spokesperson
(Harkat Jihad alIslami) 313 Brigade
Abu Hunzala
June 4, 2011"
With those few words, sent by fax to Pakistani news outlets, the death of one the region's most notorious militants appears to be confirmed. Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri and eight of his comrades were killed when three drone missiles struck two rooms in a compound in Ghwa Khwa, about 20 miles south of Wana in South Waziristan late on Friday night. It was the first such strike for nine days and the eighth since Osama bin Laden was killed on 2 May in Abbottabad.
The compound belonged to Mir Ajam Khan Tozikhel, an associate of the Mullah Nazir group of Waziris. Mullah Nazir, who signed a peace agreement with the Pakistan military in July 2009 in which he agreed not to shelter members of al-Qaeda or the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, continues to support both organisations.
Most of those killed appeared to be Punjabis, named locally as Mohammad Usman, Ibrahim, Farooq, Amir Hamza and Imran. Two of them, Amir Hamza and Mohammad Usman, are known to be close associates of Kashmiri and usually travelled with him.
The group was meeting late at night to discuss what to do in the event of a Pakistani army offensive in North Waziristan when the missiles struck.
If the reports are accurate - Kashmiri was falsely reported dead in September 2009 - this is a major blow to the remnants of al-Qaeda in Pakistan. A Pakistani by birth, he was a former special forces soldier who had been decorated by General Musharraf for beheading an Indian soldier in 2000 along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
However, he had thrown in his lot with al-Qaeda and was thought to be behind the March 2006 suicide bombing of the US consulate in Karachi and was also connected to the November 2009 attacks on Mumbai - according to recent testimony from David Coleman Headley.
He was also thought to be behind the attack on the PNS Mehran naval base in Karachi at the beginning of May and three deadly bus bombings targeting naval personnel in the preceding weeks.
He was important because he had extensive military experience dating back to the time of the Afghan war against the Soviets, during which he lost an eye and the end of his index finger.
Some reports say it was a tip-off from the Pakistan military that led to the missile strike that killed Kashmiri. If so, it is clear that the ISI had finally got fed up with a man who was once considered an asset, but who had since gone 'off message'. The Americans regarded him as so important that he had a $5 million bounty on his head.

Murder of one of Pakistan's finest journalists

2011-06-01T10:30:00.004+01:00

Syed Saleem Shahzad

The murder of Asia Times Pakistan bureau chief Syed Saleem Shahzad, who was abducted on Sunday evening, is a tragedy for reporting in that country. Shahzad was on his way to take part in a TV talk show in Islamabad when he disappeared. His body, which showed signs of torture, was found by a canal in Mandi Bahauddin in Punjab, 80 miles south of the capital. He leaves a wife, two sons and a daughter.
Shahzad had been warned in the past by Pakistan's ISI intelligence agency about critical articles he had written and had told friends and colleagues he feared for his life. A recent article he wrote on al-Qaeda infiltration in the Pakistan Navy is thought by some to have been the reason for his kidnap and murder.
This article suggested that al-Qaeda carried out the 18-hour siege on the PNS Mehran naval air station in Karachi on 22 May after talks between the navy and al-Qaeda over the release of naval ratings who had been arrested on suspicion of links to al-Qaeda had broken down.
The attack, in which two US-supplied Orion surveillance aircraft were destroyed and ten soldiers killed, was a huge embarrassment to the Pakistan military and followed three attacks on navy buses in the last month in which nine service personnel were killed. Clearly the attackers were trying to make a point. Shahzad said in his article that they came from Ilyas Kashmiri's 313 Brigade, the military section of al-Qaeda.
Shahzad went on to say that Pakistani naval intelligence had recently traced an al-Qaeda cell operating within several navy bases in Karachi. When messages were intercepted hinting at an attack on visiting American officials it was decided to arrest at least ten ratings, mostly of lower rank. Almost immediately the officer in charge received death threats from al-Qaeda which made it clear that they knew where the ratings were being held. The prisoners were quickly moved to a safer location, but the threats continued.
Shahzad says that such was the threat that a senior-level naval conference was held at which it was decided to open up negotiations with al-Qaeda. An approach was made to Abdul Samad Mansoori, a member of 313 brigade who lives in North Waziristan. He demanded the immediate release of the ratings, but the navy wanted to interrogate them and then discharge them from the armed services. Al-Qaeda's response was the attacks on the naval buses.
This in turn was followed by more arrests, including a naval commando from the Mahsud tribe of South Waziristan with close links to Tehreek-e-Taliban leader Hakimullah Mahsud. Following the death of bin Laden on 2 May, the militants decided to launch an attack on PNS Mehran. Shahzad says that insiders at the base provided maps, pictures of exit and entry routes, the location of hangars and details of the likely reaction from external security forces. Three groups entered the base: one targeted the aircraft, one engaged the response force and a third section escaped as the others provided covering fire. Up to six escaped, while four were killed on the base.
Shahzad was a superb journalist and despatches like this one will be sorely missed. Pakistan remains a deadly place for serious journalists.

Rocky relations between Pakistan and the USA

2011-05-26T15:53:00.001+01:00

A useful summary of Pakistan-American relations just published by the Congressional Research Service notes that bilateral distrust has 'peaked' since the death of Osama bin Laden, with some members of Congress openly calling for significant reductions in US aid to Pakistan.
Relations between the two countries have certainly come under pressure in 2011, with the Raymond Davis affair, the murder of Punjab governor Salman Taseer and minorities minister Shahbaz Bhatti, the revelation that Osama bin Laden had been living in the heart of a Pakistani military cantonment for several years, controversy over US drone strikes and a general cooling of relations between the CIA and the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence service.
In addition, as Pakistan's relations with the US have deteriorated, it has moved closer than ever before to China, with private companies recently signing contracts worth $15 billion, along with $20 billion-worth of government-to-government deals.
In March, the US summed up its relations with Pakistan by stating "Progress in our relationship with Pakistan over the last year has been substantial, but uneven", although there had been significant progress in combating al-Qaeda in the region. Despite these deep reservations, on 18 March, Hillary Clinton certified that Pakistan had made progress on ceasing support to extremist and terrorist groups. However, the outlook for the rest of 2011 is deemed to be poor.

Headley spills the beans on his ISI handlers

2011-05-26T15:14:00.006+01:00

Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, aka 'Pasha'

David Coleman Headley, the Pakistani-American and former DEA informant, is providing entertaining testimony in the Chicago trial of Tahawwur Hussain Rana, accused of providing support to the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Headley is going full tilt to implicate Pakistan's ISI intelligence service in the attacks, yesterday alleging that he had done most of his reconnaissance in coordination with a retired Pakistani military officer called Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, also known as 'Pasha'. Rehman has also been indicted for conspiracy to murder by the same court and for providing material help to terrorists, although he is still at large in Pakistan. The indictment can be found here.
You can find Rana's indictment - which also indicts the notorious al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Toiba leader Ilyas Kashmiri - here.
All the exhibits in the trial, including some useful photos and maps, as well as emails between Headley and Rana, can be found here.
Headley himself has already pleaded guilty to 12 terrorism charges connected to Mumbai and an aborted plan to attack the Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten. He was able to negotiate a plea bargain deal that means he will be spared the death penalty so long as he continues to cooperate with law enforcement agencies. The plea agreement itself can be found here.

An assessment of recent negotiations with the Taliban

2011-05-24T16:53:00.001+01:00

Thomas Ruttig has written a useful summary of the state of 'negotiations' between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The Battle for Afghanistan: Negotiations with the Taliban; History and Prospects for the Future, published by the New America Foundation, notes that for the first time last year the Karzai government admitted that there was contact with Taliban leaders, although it played them down as unsubstantial not leading to any concrete results: "Without doubt, contacts between the Karzai government and individual insurgents exist, but they have not been systematized and there is still no comprehensive strategy for going forward on talks or even negotiations on reconciliation" says Ruttig.
He says NATO has also confirmed that it has facilitated the talks, presumably by giving guarantees for interlocutors and Taliban officials. At the same time, its kill-and-capture programme aimed at Taliban leaders appears to be going against the whole idea of reconciliation, with the added danger that by killing Taliban leaders who want to negotiate, the future will be left to younger and more radicalised leaders.
Ruttig says the High Peace Council, consisting of 70 members nominated by President Karzai has little credibility with ordinary Afghans, who perceive it as a body aimed at achieving a 'Pashtun' settlement, at the expense of other minorities and women.
A fourth point made by Ruttig is that the Pakistani authorities have stopped denying that they support (and largely control) the Afghan Taliban. They can 'deliver' Taliban leaders to peace talks or they can stop them, as in the case of Mullah Abdul Ghani Barodar, who was arrested by the Pakistanis for taking part in negotiations without their say-so. This stranglehold that Pakistan exerts over the Taliban, for its own purposes, is resented by many members of the organisation.
Ruttig recommends that peace negotiations should continue, but that it is vital that they discuss all the core causes of the conflict. Initially this would be involve international organisations 'holding the hand' of the Afghan institutions, but later it would be important that Afghans themselves were seen to be leading the process. "Talks with insurgents–direct or indirect–would be only one part of the overall reconciliation process, which would be aimed at reaching an initial political settlement to end violence, creating transitional institutions to pursue the process, and providing a mechanism for constitutional and institutional reform," says Ruttig.
He also advocates bringing in other regional powers such as Russia and China into the negotiations and moving the United States away from a policy of 'talking and shooting' to 'talking instead of shooting.' He says the High Peace Council should be reformed by broadening participation and creating checks and balances.
Confidence building measures such as dropping UN sanctions against Taliban leaders and releasing imprisoned members of the organisation should be speeded up.

The Haqqani's shaky peace deal in Kurram Agency

2011-05-23T16:52:00.001+01:00

When Sunni and Shia tribesmen in the strategically important Kurram Agency in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas signed a peace agreement in February this year, it was clear that something was afoot. The two groups had been at each other's throats for several years. Shia members of the Turi tribe living in Upper Kurram had been the subject of a murderous campaign by neighbouring Sunni Bangash tribesmen and had been cut off from the rest of Pakistan by ambushes and road blocks that had seen hundreds of Shias taken out of buses and murdered at the side of the road. The main road to Peshawar, for example, had been closed since 2007, despite attempts by the Pakistani army to keep it open. According to some accounts, the Shias have been armed and supported by the Iranian regime, which is also predominantly Shia.
Much of this anti-Shia violence has been directed by Hakimullah Mahsud, now leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, but once its emir in Kurram, Orakzai and Khyber. Mahsud is vehemently anti-Shia, regarding them as 'pagans'. He has encouraged his fighters fleeing the Pakistani offensives in both South Waziristan and also Swat to regroup in Orakzai and Kurram and to take on the Shias.
The peace agreement was brokered by the Haqqanis, the family/tribal group who make up one of the main factions of the Afghan Taliban - whose members come from the Zadran tribe. The so-called Haqqani network is now recognised as the most sophisticated and capable insurgent organisation in Afghanistan, operating out of its main bases in North Waziristan.
Under pressure from the CIA drone campaign in North Waziristan and with the support of elements of the Pakistan military, who provide their finance and weapons, the Haqqanis have been looking to move their operations into Kurram, which provides easy access to Afghanistan. Kurram suits the bill perfectly, as it served as a major staging post for attacks against Soviet forces during the 1980s. Osama bin Laden helped build some of the training camps in the region and it is thought that the remnants of al-Qaeda - as well as other foreign forces in the region such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan - and also Pakistani jihadist groups close to the military such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba will benefit from the peace deal with the Turi tribe.
According to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project , written by Jeffrey Dressler and Reza Jan, the Haqqani's move into Kurram will have negative consequences for security and stability in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. They say it will become more difficult to identify, track and strike these groups once they have relocated.
This may be true, although it can hardly be in Iran's interests to allow the Taliban to come to power in Afghanistan. Nor is it likely that the deeply sectarian Sunnis under the command of Hakimullah Mahsud will be able to restrain themselves from killing Shias for very long, thus provoking yet another round of bloodletting in the region. This is a very shaky peace agreement indeed.

Another rubbish story

2011-05-05T12:36:00.000+01:00

"There are no telephone lines or internet connection and bin Laden and his household burned all their rubbish rather than put it out for collection."
This one really made me laugh. In my experience, this is the universal way of disposing of rubbish in Pakistan, where trash collection is a luxury few can afford. A briefing by Pakistan's own Environment department states: "Unfortunately, none of cities in Pakistan has a proper solid waste management system right from collection of solid waste up to its proper disposal."

US National Archives releases new bin Laden files

2011-05-05T11:32:00.001+01:00

Readers will forgive me if I resist the temptation to join in the general spluttering and speculating that has greeted the death of Osama bin Laden. I have read so much drivel in the last couple of days as every media organisation in the world has emptied its bottom drawer to fill page after page (screen after screen, etc) with vacuous irrelevance.
The best joke I heard was "Congratulations to the Americans. In Britain it is impossible to get a bin taken out on a Bank Holiday weekend". That one may not travel, but is the first of many, I am sure.
In the meantime - and if you really have not yet had enough bin Laden in your diet - I suggest you try the US National Archives, which has just published a remarkably informative bin Laden file containing some fascinating documents.
Available for the first time are: the CIA's 1996 3-page biographical sketch of bin Laden; the President's Daily Brief from 6 August 2001 warning "Bin Ladin determined to Strike in US"; a State Department issue paper from 2005 stating that "Some Taliban leaders operate with relative impunity in some Pakistan cities"; a 400-page Sandia National Laboratories profile of bin Laden, focussing on the 1998 US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania; a State Department cable on the Taliban's regrouping in Pakistan's Tribal Areas, making them "a sanctuary beyond the reach of either government"; the demands made on Pakistan immediately after 9/11 by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage; and an account of the only known conversation between the US government and Taliban leader Mullah Omar which took place in 1998. This latter conversation, initiated by Mullah Omar, came just two days after the controversial US Cruise missile attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan in retaliation for the East African Embassy bombings.

Apaches demand apology for slur on Geronimo

2011-05-05T10:55:00.000+01:00

I have every sympathy with the Fort Sill Apache Tribe who have written to President Obama asking him why the name of their revered ancestor Geronimo was used as a codename for Osama bin Laden in the operation that led to his death in Pakistan. The fact that bin Laden had been killed was reported back to Washington with the words "Geronimo EKIA" - Enemy Killed in Action.
"Our Tribe like most of the country was ecstatic about your announcement that Osama bin Laden had been killed in a military operation in Pakistan. The performance of our military and intelligence agencies in locating and taking action against Osama bin Laden made us all of proud to be Americans", writes Jeff Houser, who in these democratic days, is chairman of the tribe.
"To equate Geronimo or any other native American figure with Osama bin Laden, a mass murderer and cowardly terrorist, is painful and offensive to our tribe and all Native Americans," he adds.
"Geronimo was a renowned Chiricahua Apache leader who personally fought to defend his people, territory and way of life. Unlike the coward Osama bin Laden, Geronimo faced his enemy in numerous battles and engagements. He is perhaps one of the greatest symbols of Native American resistance in the history of the United States."
Houser points out that in 2009 the US House of Representatives honoured Geronimo for "his extraordinary bravery, and his commitment to the defense of his homeland, his people and Apache way of life".
Geronimo and his people lived in Southern New Mexico and Arizona until 1886, when they were forcibly removed and held as prisoners of war for 28 years. They were eventually released in 1914 in Oklahoma, where today's members of the Fort Sill Apache Tribe still live, although they have never given up on their wish to return to their homelands. Geronimo died after 23 years in captivity.

Memories of Abbottabad

2011-05-04T15:49:00.000+01:00

Sir James Abbott in Afghan costume - courtesy National Portrait Gallery

In October 2009 I spent a wonderful day in Abbottabad in the company of friends from the Amaan Ittehad organisation, who had organised a large public event calling for the restoration of democracy and justice in Pakistan. It was my one and only visit to the town - now notorious for ever more as the final hiding place of Osama bin Laden. I was struck by two things - the warmth and friendship of the people there, who did everything possible to facilitate my visit and to make me feel at home; and secondly, the remnants of so many signs of the Raj.
On the hillside, close to what is now Pakistan's premier army officer training school, stands the pretty little church of St Luke's, Abbottabad, while in the centre of the town the barracks can hardly have changed since the days in 1848 when James 'Kaka' Abbott, supported by Hazara and Pashtun tribesmen, drove the Sikhs under Chatar Singh from this area forever.

St Luke's Church, Abbottabad

Abbott was regarded as a hero by the Hazarawals and when he was removed from his post as district commissioner in 1852 for 'going native' he decided to throw a huge party for all the people of the district. It is said he spent everything he had saved to provide food for the party, which was held on Nara Hill, site of his most glorious victories against the Sikhs. According to his replacement, Herbert Edwardes: "And there for three days and nights he might be seen walking among the groups of guests and hecatombs of pots and cauldrons - the kind and courteous host of a whole people." After 18 years of loyal service, he was summarily transferred to the government gunpowder factory in Calcutta. He eventually retired a General and was knighted in 1894, two years before he died.

The massive cost of the US war in Afghanistan

2011-04-29T12:12:00.001+01:00

If you are worried about how the US government spends its tax dollars, stop reading here. A report from the Congressional Research Service - The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 - on military spending in Iraq and Afghanistan since the 9/11 attacks makes daunting reading.
In the decade since the 9/11 attacks on America, Congress has approved a total of $444 billion for Operation Enduring Freedom and other counter-terror operations in Afghanistan. This amounts to 35 per cent of all military spending during the period in question. The remaining 65% was mostly spent on operations in Iraq.
Today, however, the bulk of spending is in Afghanistan. For 2011, Afghan war costs accounted for 71% of war costs and Iraq 29%, a reversal of the split of two years earlier when Afghanistan’s share was one third and Iraq’s share was two-thirds. In the FY2012 request, the $114 billion cost for Afghanistan is a 91% increase over FY2009, and 161% higher than FY2008. In FY2012, the cost for Iraq drops to $18 billion, a decrease of $78 billion from FY2009.
The 59-page report notes "Between FY2009 and FY2010, average monthly DOD spending for Afghanistan grew from $4.4 billion to $6.7 billion a month, a 50% increase, while average troop strength almost doubled from 44,000 to 84,000 as part of the troop surge announced by the President last year. Troop strength in Afghanistan is expected to average 102,000 in FY2011. DOD’s plans call for troop levels to fall by less than 4,000 in FY2012 unless the President decides otherwise as part of his decision to “begin transition to Afghan security lead in early 2011. . . [to a ] a responsible, conditions-based U.S. troop reduction in July 2011.”"
It can be seen that the cost of the war in Afghanistan has risen dramatically since 2006, up from $19bn to $60bn in 2009. This will rise to $105bn for 2010 and $119bn in 2011. The cost increases reflect not only higher troop levels and more intense operations, but also substantial sums for training Afghan forces, extra procurement costs and, latterly, higher foreign aid levels. It also costs more per soldier to keep troops deployed in Afghanistan compared to Iraq. Incredibly, the Administration cites a figure of $1 million per troop per year in Afghanistan. Plenty more stats in this report if you can face it.

Media and Telecoms guide to Afghanistan

2011-04-20T15:12:00.000+01:00

Having helped to write and edit it, I can't oversell Infoasaid's Media and Telecoms Landscape Guide to Afghanistan. That having been said, I can highly recommend it if you want a quick and easy-to-read guide to how the media works in Afghanistan.

Three Cups of Tea author savaged by 60 Minutes

2011-04-18T12:56:00.004+01:00

Mortenson in Pakistan

Oh dear! Greg Mortenson, who shot to fame with the publication of his best-seller Three Cups of Tea, has had a bit of a thrashing from CBS's 60 Minutes.
They began investigating complaints from former donors, board members, staff and charity regulators about the way Mortenson runs the Central Asia Institute. They say there are "serious questions about how millions of dollars have been spent, whether Mortenson is personally benefiting and whether some of the most dramatic and inspiring stories in his books are even true."
Mortenson, who charges $30,000 for each public speaking engagement, has sold millions of copies of his books. And yet, as a series of replies from the CAI trustees to questions asked by 60 Minutes has revealed, he often uses a private jet to fly between engagements. Last year CAI apparently spent more on Mortenson's travel costs - which it pays - than on building schools.
In addition, it appears that stories about him being kidnapped by the Taliban are untrue, as are stories about how villagers nursed him back to health on his descent from K2, the tallest mountain in Pakistan. Education officials at some schools in Pakistan reported to 60 Minutes that some of the schools built with CAI money are poorly constructed and that they have not heard from the charity for some time. Only 41 per cent of the money CAI spent in 2009 actually went to schools in Pakistan or Afghanistan. It was all too good to be true.

Opium production for 2011 set to rise in Afghanistan

2011-04-18T12:11:00.000+01:00

Opium production in Afghanistan for 2011 is likely to increase strongly in the north and north-east of the country, although overall cultivation for the entire country is expected to decrease slightly, according to the latest survey from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
Cultivation in Badakhshan, Baghlan and Faryab provinces in the north of the country is likely to increase due to the present high prices for the drug. The two latter provinces were certified as poppy-free in 2010, so this is a setback. Both are likely to lose this status in 2011. Other provinces certified poppy-free in 2010 are likely to remain so.
In total 16 provinces are likely to remain poppy-free in 2011, with the remaining 18 provinces showing moderate to strong increases. Asked to explain the main reasons why farmers chose to grow opium rather than other crops, almost three-quarters answered that high prices was the main reason. Reasons for not growing opium were that it was banned by the government (38%), it was forbidden by Islam (30%) or fear of eradication (19%).
Only in eight per cent of surveyed villages - all of them in Baghlan - did farmers receive cash advances from 'external sources' for growing opium. In Baghlan, this meant 57 per cent of all poppy-growing villages. UNODC found a strong statistical linkage between villages that had not received governmental agricultural assistance and the growing of opium.
The price increase for opium has been dramatic over the last year, rising between February 2010 and March 2011 by 306 per cent for dry opium and 251 per cent for fresh opium. By comparison wheat prices increased by 31 per cent and maize by 42 per cent over the same period. Rice actually fell in price by one per cent.
The interesting question is whether or not the increase in cultivation in the north of the country is a tactic supported and encouraged by the Taliban. It receives much of its income from opium production and with this being curtailed in the south, it seems likely that it is connected to the 'external sources' providing funding for farmers in the north of the country.

Hard facts of human rights in Pakistan

2011-04-14T17:15:00.002+01:00

The annual report for the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, published yesterday, does not make comfortable reading. They say that957 people were killed in US drone attacks in 2010, while 1,159 people were killed in 67 suicide attacks. The fatalities included 1,041 civilians. In addition, a further 2,542 people were killed and 5,062 people injured in terrorist attacks.
In Karachi, 237 political activists and 301 other civilians were killed in targeted killings. Another 118 people were killed and 40 injured in targeted killings in Baluchistan. These included 29 non-Baluch 'settlers' and 17 members of the Shia Hazara community. The bodies of another 59 missing persons were found in the province.
The report reveals that there are more than 8,000 people on death row in Pakistan, including nearly 6,000 in Punjab alone. A total of 75,586 prisoners were detained in 55 prisons, although the authorised capacity for these prisons is only 42,617. Seventy-two prisoners died in prisons and another 157 were injured.
Freedom of movement in some areas of Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan and FATA, is so limited, that the report calls them "virtual no-go areas".
Ninety-nine members of the Ahmedi sect were killed in the year and at least 64 people were charged with blasphemy, including Aasia Bibi, a Christian farmhand. Three men (including two Christian brothers) accused of blasphemy were killed in police custody.
Twenty-five of the 102 Sikh families that had been forced to flee Orakzai through intimidation, returned to the area. However, 500 Hindu families from Balochistan migrated to India because of threats to their lives.
Many more fascinating and daunting figures are contained in this remarkable report.

Pak financier of Indian Airlines hijack arrested in Chile?

2011-04-13T19:26:00.002+01:00

Hijacked jet on the runway at Kandahar Airport in 1999

Indian news organisations are reporting that a man arrested in Chile last week in possession of a false passport may be Abdul Rauf, a Pakistani terrorist accused of financing and coordinating the December 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines passenger jet from Kathmandu to Kandahar, via Amritsar and Lahore.
The aircraft and its 11-member crew and 179 passengers was hijacked by five armed men who eventually landed at Kandahar and demanded the ransom of a number of Pakistani jihadis imprisoned in India. They killed one of the passengers in the eight-day stand-off before the Indian authorities agreed to release three men: Maulana Masood Azhar, founder of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Mushtaq Zargar, a Kashmiri separatist leader and Ahmed Omar Sayeed Sheikh, a British-educated Pakistani who was later convicted of the murder of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.
Taliban officials facilitated the handover of prisoners, which took place on the runway at Kandahar in the presence of the-then Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh. All three men lived openly in Pakistan following their release, despite the fact that they had all been convicted of terrorist offences in India.
Rauf, who is brother-in-law to Azhar, is said to have sent money to the hijackers and also rented a flat in Dhaka where the hijackers fine-tuned their plans.
Two senior Indian police officers left for Chile yesterday in order to confirm Rauf's identity. His arrest was brought to their attention via Interpol. His last recorded presence in Pakistan was in October 2009 when he was called in by Pakistani authorities to help negotiate the release of 42 people taken hostage by pro-Taliban militants who had occupied part of an army base in Rawalpindi.
* The Indian team sent to Chile appear to have ruled out the man detained in Chile as being Abdul Rauf, although inquiries are continuing.